C-19 Chat Post – June 23 2020

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

Yesterday’s thunderstorm activity fired closer to the coast than I expected and, while still isolated in terms of the entire region, was pretty impactful in the areas that it did impact, especially in terms of road flooding. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall like that does a whole lot of running off and not sinking into the ground to help alleviate developing drought conditions. And even with a few opportunities for additional showers and storms this week, the longer term dry spell will continue. Today begins with an extensive layer of marine air with low clouds over much of the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will also see some marine air to start, with the lower clouds probably confined a little more to coastal locations. These low clouds should burn away each day today and Tuesday but a coastal sea breeze will exist both days as well. During each afternoon today and Tuesday, a few pop up showers and thunderstorms may occur, mostly over interior locations. When we get to Wednesday, with high humidity in place and a cold front arriving from the west, that will be our best chance at a little more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with timing of the front playing a roll in both coverage of rainfall and intensity of storms. A couple days to fine-tune that. Drier air arrives behind this front for Thursday, but a small disturbance may bring another round of showers to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then becoming partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas away from the coast. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-88 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start for some locations, otherwise partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon over inland locations. Humid. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A little less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Warm front / cold front combo may bring some unsettled weather during the June 27-28 weekend. Next front brings a shower/thunderstorm risk around June 30. Upper low may trigger a few more storms around July 1. Temperatures variable, averaging slightly above normal, but may drop a little below normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Zonal flow (from the west, northwest at times). This is a dry pattern overall, but fast-moving disturbance can bring shower and thunderstorm risks.

C-19 Chat Post – June 22 2020

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

There is a long-standing observance / joke that Mother’s Day is often wet around here and Father’s Day is often summery and nice. Well, while not always the cause, it is more likely to be that way than not be that way. Think about why. If you recall, Mother’s Day was not rainy this year, but Father’s Day will be nice and summery. And, well, that makes sense. We’re in a weather pattern that supports it, and it’s the first full day of summer too! Wow, what are the chances! So this pattern hangs around for a bit, and only gets dented slightly by marine-modified air the next couple days. You won’t notice a big change, as it stays moderately humid, but the temperature does come down just a bit off what it was yesterday, and those 2 factors will go in to limiting thunderstorm chances to a little less than what we had yesterday. And even yesterday’s activity, while sitting over the same areas for a while, was very isolated. Most saw nothing. And pretty much everybody will see nothing again today and Monday. The risk goes up a tad Tuesday as a front gets closer and it heats up a bit more again, and then a shot of more widespread shower activity takes place Wednesday as the front crosses the region. I’m not too confident on timing of a feature behind this, but for now I’m leaning toward dry weather for Thursday.

TODAY: South Coast low clouds into mid morning burning off to sunshine. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Some low clouds/fog especially South Coast. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A little less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

Greatest shower threats June 26 and 28 and 30. But by no means is this a switch to a wetter pattern overall – just a few disturbances passing by. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

Zonal flow (from the west, northwest at times). This is a dry pattern overall. We may see a shot of cooler air to start the period and we always have to watch for disturbance that can trigger fast-moving thunderstorms in this type of pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – June 21 2020

9:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

Summer begins today at 5:43PM when the solstice occurs. Our weather pattern will support the season as it begins, with today being a very warm to hot and rather humid day. As a safe adjustment I need to add the slight risk of a shower or t-storm to southeastern NH this morning as a boundary sits in the region and has already fired off a downpour north of Concord NH, so if you’re heading into that area or live in southeastern NH, you’ll see some cloudiness and perhaps some brief wet weather before noon today. For the region overall, expect more cloudiness Sunday, but again most shower activity will occur outside the WHW forecast area, with just a stray shower near the South Coast / Cape Cod. Monday through Wednesday will continue the humid theme, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers / t-storms possible both Monday and Tuesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. This front will be in the vicinity and an additional disturbance coming along may enhance shower activity in the region by Wednesday. Any rainfall is needed as we continue to run a long term deficit.

TODAY: A brief shower or thunderstorm possible this morning southeastern NH otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy except becoming mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast with a risk of a shower. Partly sunny elsewhere. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-87 inland. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

Greatest shower threats June 26 and 28. Mostly dry weather otherwise. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

C-19 Chat Post – June 20 2020

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

The day-by-day warm-up continues and today and tomorrow will be the hottest of this week, along with higher humidity. The humidity will remain elevated though the temperature will come down a few notches on Sunday with a little more of a southerly to even southeasterly wind as low pressure passing southeast of the region tweaks the air flow. By Monday, we’re back to a summery southwesterly wind flow, high humidity, and a risk of a shower or storm for all locations as a weak cold front starts to approach the region from the west. That front will be moving very slowly so Tuesday’s weather will be similar, very warm, humid, shower / t-storm risk.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog burning off to sun and a few clouds. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog burning off to sun and a few clouds. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except becoming mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-87 inland. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

A second front enters the region June 24 and may increase the risk of shower activity that day. The next disturbance may do the same June 26 followed by another at the end of the period. This pattern may seem active but still is not likely to produce all that much rainfall, which is needed. Temperatures variable, mostly near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

C-19 Chat Post – June 19 2020

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

No big changes & one minor adjustment to today’s update. Continuing to see the break-down of what was a blocking pattern, and this process will continue to influence the sensible weather here where we all live, first in the form of a continued warm up and gradual increase in humidity the next three days. We’ll reach “peak” temperature both Friday & Saturday, when some areas will reach or exceed 90. This is not going to be an intense spell of heat with oppressive humidity, but hot and humid enough to be quite noticed, especially since our overall pattern has been on the cooler side. The minor adjustment made involves Sunday’s forecast, which I already had cooler due to a general shift in wind direction as low pressure passes southeast of the region, and that remains today, but I am going to add the risk of a pop up shower favoring southern areas as I think there could be just enough moisture around for that. By Monday, we’re back to a summery southwesterly wind flow, high humidity, and a risk of a shower or storm for all locations as a weak cold front starts to approach the region from the west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Low clouds forming in some areas overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Low clouds favoring the South Coast but areas further north also early in the day, then mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast with a risk of rain showers. Partly sunny elsewhere. Humid. Highs 72-79 coast, 79-84 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

A front from the west slogs its way across the region then sits in the vicinity June 23-26. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms June 23 & 25 while impulses of low pressure may bring more general shower activity June 24 & 26, based on current expecting timing. A push of drier air may arrive at the end of the period courtesy high pressure from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

C-19 Chat Post – June 18 2020

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

A block in the atmosphere (high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south) is in the process of breaking down but will take about 5 days to do so. For southeastern New England, the result is continued dry weather through Friday with a day-by-day warming trend and a tiny uptick in humidity, starting to be noticeable on Thursday and evening more so on Friday. It will It will become much more noticeable over the weekend as low pressure to the south, while falling apart, sends some of its moisture in this direction. However, that low will maintain enough integrity to help turn our wind from southerly to a little more southeasterly by Sunday, which will put a damper on the summertime temperatures at least for coastal areas. Earlier I had been thinking a front may sneak down from the north, but this no longer looks to the the case. Also, since I think any isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the mountains of western and northern New England this coming weekend, I am keeping them out of the forecast for the WHW forecast area.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 coast, 77-84 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Highs 72-79 coast, 79-84 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

As a front front the west takes its time moving across the region, we should be back in a south to southwest air flow with higher humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms June 22-23. An additional wave of low pressure may bring some wet weather June 24 before drier weather arrives later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

C-19 Chat Post – June 17 2020

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

As we count down the final days of spring and arrive at summer on the final day of this 5-day forecast block, we’ll continue to undergo a transition from pleasantly cool weather to warmer and more humid conditions. Still looking at a dry pattern in terms of rainfall, however, with the only risk being an isolated shower or thunderstorm that may pop up in the heat and humidity on Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 coast, 77-84 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Watching for a potential back-door cold front that could make it considerably cooler and potentially mostly cloudy as well for June 21. If this front does not threaten the region, the weather that day would be similar to the day before it. Warm/humid with a risk of showers / t-storms from approaching front June 22. That front may provide a rare risk for a period of rain from late June 23 into June 24 after which dry weather would be back.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

C-19 Chat Post – June 16 2020