C-19 Chat Post – January 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

An arctic cold front is dropping southward through the region early this morning and will take until mid to late morning to completely push through. Snow showers accompanying this front have whitened the ground in some locations north of Boston and briefly moderate snow showers may coat the ground along this boundary as it moves to the south. Its bigger impact will be to introduce the coldest air mass we’ve seen in quite some time, after a long stretch of milder-than-normal weather (other than one below normal day on Thursday). But now we’re putting together a string of colder-than-normal days which will last well into next week, starting with a dry (after the snow showers) and bright weekend between a large area of low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces and high pressure in eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. I am continuing to lean toward mainly a miss for the storm system passing south of the region between late Monday and early Wednesday. I think the synoptic snowfall from this system may get into the NYC and southwestern CT area Monday night and Tuesday but the dry air will be too much to overcome for any of that snow to make it into the southern portion of the WHW forecast area. However, the direction of the wind at the surface may create some snow showers as the wind will be coming off the Atlantic from the northeast between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south.

TODAY: Clouds and scattered snow showers with coatings of snow possible especially eastern MA through mid morning, otherwise sun & passing clouds. Highs 25-32 occurring early morning, steady or slowly falling thereafter. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Highs 24-31. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

The large scale blocking pattern continues with another storm likely passing south of the region January 28 to early January 29, but this system, in combination with high pressure in eastern Canada, may help continue the coastal snow shower threat at least to start the period before the air flow turns more northerly. High pressure should control weather weather into the January 30-31 weekend but we will need to keep an eye on the next storm threat as early as January 31 and more likely February 1. That’s out at days 9 & 10 so no detail but just general idea on timing of the threat window.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Cautiously and with low confidence forecasting a slight weakening of blocking resulting in a readjustment of large scale features and opening the door for a little more unsettled weather as we move through the early days of February. Greatest chance for storminess here would come during the middle to end of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

Low pressure passing north of our area today will drag a cold front through the region by later in the day. The air will be relatively mild ahead of this front, probably the last 40+ degree day for much of the region for a while. Although Boston broke their second longest stretch on record of days with above normal temperatures yesterday with a below normal day, there will be one more above normal day today before we head into a stretch of below normal for the remainder of this five-day forecast period (and probably beyond). This is a result of a continued blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere which has now adjusted itself to grab a piece of the arctic air that has been residing on the other side of the hemisphere and deliver it to the northeastern US. Granted, we won’t see anything like the cold that has been experienced in parts of Europe & Asia, but in a relative sense, it will feel quite cold compared to what we have experienced this winter so far. As that cold air arrives, the frontal boundary leading it in will produce a few showers and with marginal temperatures and a little bit of convective action in the atmosphere, these may fall as rain, snow, or even graupel depending on their location. This type of set-up often makes for picturesque skies as well, so a little show is to be put on by the atmosphere to mark the change, and then it’s onto a cold & dry weekend with air coming from Canada on a gusty northwest to north wind. While we’ll have plenty of sunshine both Saturday & Sunday, for the first time in quite a while it may fail to reach freezing throughout most of the region with a few possible exceptions on Sunday. The cold remains in place early next week. That much is certain. What there is continued uncertainty about is a snow threat. Low pressure will be passing south of New England between late Monday and Tuesday, and we continue to see some differences across the various computer guidance we look at, some of them bringing a light to even moderate snowfall into at least southern areas, while others indicate a complete miss. At this point, I continue to lean toward the miss scenario, but with the door open for at least some light snow to reach southern areas, especially the South Coast. But at day 5, that leaves plenty of time to figure this part of the forecast out.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain, snow, and/or graupel possible mainly mid to late afternoon and favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow showers possible in the evening. Clear overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 24-31. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible near the South Coast. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with some South Coast light snow possible morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

As we move through the final 5 days of January we should see the blocking pattern continue and the storm track suppressed to the south with another system likely moving out south of the region around the middle of the period, but it may become quite a large ocean storm and bend the air flow around enough that some ocean effect snow showers may reach some coastal areas somewhere in the January 29-31 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Still uncertainty regarding the blocking pattern’s status. With low confidence I believe it holds but weakens during the first several days of February. As far as sensible weather for us, probably still on the drier side overall but any shift in the blocking pattern’s strength or position could open the door for some unsettled weather, which we’ll have to monitor.

C-19 Chat Post – January 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A broad area of low pressure will track north of New England through Friday, dragging its warm front through the region today, which may result in a touch of light snow from northern MA northward, and its cold front across the region on Friday, which will be a milder day and see a passing rain or snow shower. Most of the region will be dry though on both days. This weekend, a piece of modified arctic air slips out of Canada into the Northeast as high pressure sets up shop north of the Great Lakes, so we will be cold and dry here. This cold/dry air will hold into Monday as we start to watch a storm approaching the East Coast from the Midwest. Normally this would be rather concerning in winter, but it is not nearly so this time around. More about that after the detailed forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with a period or 2 of very light snow possible in southern NH and northern MA. Partly sunny later. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW by late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

While we need to continue to monitor a passing storm system south of New England January 26 to early January 27, and there is still uncertainty regarding how far north the track will be, there will also potentially be an elongated trough behind it to watch as well. But right now the leaning is that we’ll continue to have the atmospheric block set up in such a way that low pressure over the Maritime Provinces of Canada will help keep this storm from becoming too strong and from coming too far north, so odds favor a miss or just a glancing blow favoring southern parts of the region. Dry/cold weather follows this for January 28-29. May need to watch for another approaching low pressure system by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Potential impact by low pressure both at the start and end of this period. The odds however continue to be on the side of mostly quiet weather. There’s still a lot of uncertainty at this point on the duration and strength of the blocking pattern this far out – does it hold, weaken, or break down? – a question that cannot be answered yet.

C-19 Chat Post – January 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A disturbance moves through the region today with lots of clouds and some snow showers as the air continues to trend colder. The best chance of snow showers will be south and west of Boston where a small accumulation may occur. This energy will ignite an ocean storm south and east of New England which will pull even colder air in tonight. A broad low pressure area will track north of the region Thursday and Friday pushing a warm front through the region Thursday followed by a cold front on Friday. A tiny bit of light snow may occur with the warn front but most of the energy and moisture for that will pass to our north, and then the cold front may be good for a rain or snow shower Friday as it turns briefly milder between the two fronts. Once the cold front is through, it’s dry and windy for the coming weekend along with the coldest air we’ve had for quite some time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston where a coating to 1/2 inch may accumulate. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with brief very light snow possible northern MA and southern NH. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

While there is some uncertainty remaining regarding the passage of a storm system in the late January 25 to early January 27 time frame, odds favor this system passing far enough south for little or even no impact, with generally cold and dry weather being dominant throughout this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The pattern seems stubborn to watch to change much, and while there is another “window-of-opportunity” around January 30-31 where we need to watch for a possible storm system, again odds favor more dry weather to dominate as we go from January to early February, perhaps with a temperature moderation getting underway.

C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

The next 3 days will show a cooling trend as a couple disturbances in a west northwesterly air flow bring only minor snow shower threats but serve to bring in colder air from Canada. We may moderate slightly on Friday ahead of a cold front which will arrive by evening and introduce even colder air by the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers, especially west of Boston. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Dry/cold January 24 as high pressure builds just north of the region. Watching for a storm threat in the later January 25 to early January 27 time-frame as low pressure likely passes to the south of our area, but uncertain on how close it will be. Dry/cold for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Still a lot of uncertainty in the overall pattern though still leaning toward a weakened blocking pattern but weather that is mostly on the dry side with a cold start and then a possible moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – January 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

Today will be the mildest day of the week before we start a colder trend. Don’t look for an arctic blast though. This will be a gradual process as the large scale features shift to a allow a little more cold into the Northeast than we have seen for the entire month so far. The weather pattern will still be active, but quiet. How is that possible? Active but quiet? Yes. About 3 disturbances will pass by, one today, one later Tuesday to early Wednesday, and another Thursday, but none of them will result in any meaningful precipitation. That is how we can be active but quiet. 🙂

TODAY (MLK JR. DAY): More sun than clouds morning. More clouds than sun with a risk of a passing light rain or snow shower during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Blocking continues. Colder, dry weather is expected for the January 23-24 weekend. There is a storm threat in the January 25-27 window but it is too soon to know any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Blocking may weaken or break down. Will have to watch for additional storm threat, but odds favor cold/dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Many times we talk about a “break in the action” in reference to a short quiet period of weather in the middle of an active stormy pattern, but this time we had the opposite, a short-lived stormy period, i.e., one important storm system moving through yesterday, and now it’s back to a quiet pattern in which only minor disturbances cause minimal precipitation chances but otherwise it remains generally dry. The blocking pattern we’ve been in now for about a week will remain in place. The difference this time is it adjusts itself enough to allow a trend to colder weather here – not the brutal cold that much of Asia & Europe have seen in recent days, but a trend to a near to below normal temperature pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Blocking continues. A weak system may produce a few snow showers early in the period. We will watch for a storm system to survive a little better as it approaches later in the period, but it’s far too soon to have any certainty on this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Jury’s out on blocking. We may see it weaken or even break down, although odds still favor seasonably cold to slightly colder than normal and on the drier side. It’s a very low confidence outlook and will continue to monitor the pattern drivers.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2021