C-19 Chat Post – December 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

We sit on the cold side of a frontal boundary and will spend most of our time there during the next several days. High pressure brings fair but cold and breezy conditions today. A wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary to our south with trigger a period of snow Friday morning with minor accumulation, whitening up the ground for Christmas Eve. Another low pressure area will approach from the west by early Christmas Day (Saturday), bringing more unsettled weather to the region, but with warmer air moving in aloft, while many areas may start as snow, a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and rain will likely take over the precipitation. The good news is that this will not be a big storm system. However, it only takes a minor amount of frozen / freezing precipitation to cause travel hazards, so those with plans to drive or walk need to keep this in mind as we head through Christmas Day. The low responsible for this will intensify once offshore Sunday, but will be moving away quickly. This will make for a cold and gusty day, and an upper level disturbance may trigger a few snow showers. Behind all of this, high pressure should bring us a fair and chilly day Monday, but with clouds moving in as the next disturbance approaches (though timing and confidence on the strength and track of any system beyond just a few days out is low due to the ongoing near uselessness of the guidance).

TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light snow arriving west to east overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy with light snow ending from west to east during the morning – accumulation of a coating to 2 inches expected. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind calm then NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouding up. Snow arriving late evening or overnight, accumulating a coating to 1/2 inch, changing to sleet / ice / rain especially south of I-90 toward dawn. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E overnight.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of snow/mix to ice/rain southern NH, mix to rain elsewhere, may tapering off but changing to a few snow flurries later in the day. Highs 35-42, mildest South Coast through midday, cooling later in the day. Wind E shifting to N increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats. Guidance will be of no help at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – December 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

The previously-prognosticated active pattern with no big storms is ongoing. Keep in mind that when I mentioned this pattern many days ago, I also told you that we could not provide details for timing and impacts of any systems that far in advance, but now in the 5-day period we can elaborate more. We start with a grazing by an offshore storm system today which will be moving rapidly northeastward. Though the center will be quite a distance to our southeast, its precipitation shield is large enough that it will produce a period of rain for several hours this morning. However, surface temperatures will be cold enough over the interior areas, especially west of the I-95 belt, that the rain will be freezing on untreated surfaces, making it slippery for travel. This will have some impact on the morning commute. The good news is that not only does the precipitation exit by midday, but the temperature climbs above freezing in all areas so that any ice will melt. We’ll also see clearing with dry air and increasing wind as the day goes on, which will dry off any surface so that we don’t see any re-freezing tonight. High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cold weather on Thursday. Once we get to Friday and Saturday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we will see a couple of disturbances moving east southeastward across our area. This will be the broken up remnants of a low pressure and frontal system that will be blocked from cleanly passing through the northeastern US by high pressure in eastern Canada. With enough cold air around, we may see some festive snowflakes for at least parts of the region from these systems, with no significant impact expected for travel. Model guidance is not handling the second half of the weekend well, with different models showing different outcomes. Right now it looks like a lingering disturbance passing through on Sunday will produce some scattered snow showers, but some fine-tuning of this part of the forecast will still be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except pockets of freezing rain west of I-95. Gradual clearing afternoon. Highs 39-44 except 45-50 South Shore through South Coast of MA. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Temperatures variable averaging near normal. At least once disturbance brings a precipitation opportunity favoring mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

This 5-day forecast takes us from the Winter Solstice (which will be occurring moments after I post this blog, which I got a late start on today, due to a sunrise trip to the NH Seacoast to put my feet in the icy Atlantic water, then a diner breakfast after that. 😉 The solstice occurs at 10:59 a.m. EST today – “the shortest day of the year” in terms of daylight. We already saw our earliest sunsets about a week before this, but we’ve been trending later with the sunrises still, so that we reach our minimum today, and then, very slowly, we start trending in the other direction. The beginning of winter is also the beginning of the long journey out of the “dark days”. But as we all know here in New England, our harshest winter weather will often occur during the first 2 or 3 months of this celestial journey. Do we have any harshness coming up between today and Christmas Day (the end of this 5-day forecast period)? Well, not so much by New England standards, no, but we will see a couple of weather events during this time frame. Let’s outline how I expect it to take place. First, a dry solstice today as high pressure slips off to the south of New England. The air will be milder than yesterday’s chill – a little irony in that the final day of autumn will be colder than the first day of winter, but you know that’s not really unusual in day-to-day weather. Next up, we watch a storm system skirting by to our southeast Wednesday. This storm is failing to combine significantly with energy to the northwest, so we just get a glancing blow from its precipitation shield, which will be mostly rain, but surface temperatures will be cold enough so that some icing may occur over inland locations during the morning hours. Keep this in mind if you are driving or walking on untreated surfaces. That storm system exits the area in a hurry Wednesday afternoon and evening with a return to dry and seasonably cold weather here, which will set up a fair and chilly day for Thursday. We’ll be seeing a little bit of a blocking pattern setting up late this week, with high pressure in eastern Canada. As this happens, low pressure approaches the Great Lakes and its frontal boundary will be trying to push east and northeast, but running into high pressure will turn into a strung-out boundary with disturbances moving along it. This will translate into a couple of precipitation opportunities Friday and Saturday (Christmas Eve & Christmas Day), some of which will likely occur as snow as it should be cold enough. Temperatures will be more marginal the further south you go so some rain may be involved as well. Fine-tuning of timing and precipitation type will be done as we get closer. This will not be a major precipitation event, so travel impact should be minimal.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Scattered rain and freezing rain overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with periods of rain except pockets of freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet interior eastern and central MA and southern NH. Clearing afternoon. Highs 35-42, except 42-49 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A disturbance and incoming cold air bring the chance of snow showers December 26. Generally dry and seasonably cold weather is expected thereafter, though we may need to watch for a weak system to impact the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats but while somewhat active, the pattern does not look particularly stormy.

C-19 Chat Post – December 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

If you were / are up and outside early this morning you felt the coldest air we’ve experienced in a while, sans wind, as high pressure sat atop the region with a perfect set-up for radiational cooling. This high pressure area will continue to govern our weather today and tomorrow with dry weather, a cold day today and a slightly milder Tuesday for the Winter Solstice (10:59 a.m. EST). We are in the midst of a pattern change as we head into astronomical winter, and as noted previously, our opportunities for systems to produce frozen precipitation for at least parts of there region increase. While we won’t experience any big storms, we will see a couple opportunities during this 5-day period – not today or tomorrow obviously. After the moderation in temperature for Tuesday, a cold front will slip through the region that evening with a slightly cooler air mass behind it. Wednesday, we’ll “dodge a bullet” in terms of an important storm system, as low pressure that originated well to the south (a rarity in this regime) moves offshore to the southeast of New England and a weaker disturbance passes by to the northwest. These 2, had they been closer, may have combined to give the Northeast a more important storm system, but that’s not going to happen. It is the southern system that will scrape us with the northwesterly edge of its precipitation shield on Wednesday – most likely in the form of rain for southeastern MA & RI, but a few pockets of freezing rain and some sleet may occur a little further to the north and west over central through northeastern MA and into southeastern NH as well. I’m not expecting significant travel issues from this, but it could get a little slippery on untreated surfaces where it is cold enough for freezing rain to occur. Areas that see the icing would still likely rise above freezing for high temperatures sometime during the day, putting an end to the icing issue. Even just wet roads can create less traction for tires, so keeping in mind the pre-holiday traffic volume this week, use extra caution if you will be out. This bout of unsettled weather will be short-lived, and we get a fair and seasonably chilly day Thursday courtesy a high pressure area with centers in eastern Canada and south of New England. The southern bubble will slide off to the east and be the weaker of the 2, while the northern high center will stay a little more stubborn in eastern Canada, feeding in some cold air. While this happens, and first part of a weakening frontal boundary from the west will move into the region on Friday (Christmas Eve) with the chance of some light snow or snow shower activity. While it is still several days away and in the model guidance uncertainty zone, this type of pattern usually produces something that will equate more to “festive flakes” rather than becoming a travel issue, but it will be something to keep an eye on…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain likely southeastern MA & RI. A chance of rain with pockets of freezing rain and sleet southeastern NH through northeastern and central MA to northeastern CT. Highs 35-42, except 42-49 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A frontal boundary and wave of low pressure along it should bring the chance of rain/mix/snow for Christmas Day – timing and details uncertain. Low pressure pulls to the east and strengthens while an upper disturbance crosses the region Sunday December 26 with a chance of snow showers. Generally dry and seasonably cold weather is expected thereafter, though we may need to watch for a weak system to impact the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

A weak system may impact the region with some precipitation early in the period, with another possible somewhere around the first of the new year, but based on previously-mentioned conditions with guidance and the pattern, no detail is possible this far in advance. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Low pressure moves away today with improving weather after our minor kind-of-winter event. The coldest air of the season-to-date moves in behind this system, but not in a blasting kind of way, but in a quiet way as high pressure settles over the region tonight and sets up radiational cooling with the cold air mass having just arrived. This high will bring us fair but cold weather Monday followed by a slight moderation Tuesday as it moves offshore. A cold front will slip through the region quietly later Tuesday with colder air returning by Wednesday as a storm system evolves offshore. So far it looks like this system will be a miss but we’ll still have to watch it, and also may see some snow showers (except rain or snow showers Cape Cod) from a little trough connecting that system with one to the northwest of our region. The offshore storm moves away and high pressure moves back in Thursday with more fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few lingering snow and rain showers. Increasing sunshine follows. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 34-41. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Active pattern with temperatures running near to below normal. Timing disturbances will be impossible this far out but look for two potentials for precipitation during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)

A weak area of low pressure skirts just south of the South Coast later today through early Sunday. This will give us a minor precipitation event, snow to start out for many (except rain Cape Cod and immediate South Coast), with a rain/snow line progressing northward from the South Coast and westward from the eastern shores as time goes along. There will be some sleet in the mix/change area, as well as some potential freezing rain pockets especially in central MA where temperatures may sit just below freezing. This system exits early Sunday followed by fair but colder weather as high pressure moves into the region. This high will sit right over us Sunday night (coldest night of the season so far) and Monday with fair and cold conditions. The high shifts to the south with a tiny moderation in temperature Tuesday, before a cold front slips down from the northwest and turns it a little colder again by midweek. We’ll have to keep an eye on the evolution of low pressure to the south and east of New England by later Wednesday as it could end up close enough to bring a snow shower threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow/sleet/rain South Coast and a few snow showers southern NH and northern MA this morning. Steadier precipitation as mostly rain South Coast / Cape Cod, snow elsewhere eventually mixing with and changing to sleet and rain with pockets of freezing rain interior areas (mostly west of I-495). Snow accumulation under 1 inch immediate coastal areas, 1-2 inches away from the coast except 2-4 inches north central MA through interior southern NH Highs 32-37 inland, 38-43 coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain coastal areas, rain with pockets of freezing rain and sleet interior areas but some snow still possible higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, tapering off overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with lingering rain/sleet/snow showers early, then increasing sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Temperatures near to below normal. Offshore storm may bring some snow showers or a period of snow early December 23. Weak disturbance may trigger a few snow showers Christmas Eve and low pressure approaching from the west may bring some precipitation around December 26. No major storms are expected.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Our last warm day for a while occured on Thursday. As expected, Boston fell several degrees shy of the record high for the date (64, set in 1971). It was advertised as “near record warmth” but it actually wasn’t. A high of 60 is 4 degrees shy of the record of 64, and that is not near the record. Worcester tied their record of 58. Where the conditions for getting the warmer air to the surface were better, Hartford & Providence set new high temperature records. That is one thing we have lacked during our mild autumn – record highs. So it has not been an autumn of extreme warmth, just a very mild one, overall, with interludes of colder weather as well. And now it’s time for a pattern change. Say goodbye to the milder times. While today itself will still be fairly mild to start, the trend will be down, and this is going to set us up for a bit of a winter weather event this weekend. A secondary cold front will cruise through the region later today, and then low pressure will come along from the Ohio Valley Saturday, passing near or just south south of the New England South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. While this will not be a particularly strong system, it will have a decent shield of moisture with it, and will produce accumulating snow for much of the region, but not a “big snowstorm”. We will see a rain/snow line near the coast due to warmer air in response to the ocean water, and also we’ll have to contend with warmer air coming in from the south at mid levels, that will set up an area of sleet and possible freezing rain between the snow and rain inland of the South Coast, most likely along the I-90 belt in east central and south central MA. Travel hazards will occur on untreated surfaces, especially where temperatures are near to below freezing. Once this system exits we’ll experience a shot of colder air arriving Sunday and continuing Monday before we moderate slightly with fair weather as we head for the Winter Solstice on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58 in the morning, cooling into the 40s afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arrives during midday west to east but may begin as a rain/snow mix Cape Cod. Snow changes to rain along remainder of South Coast and eventually eastern coastal areas up to Boston, and to sleet with pockets of freezing rain possible inland from the South Coast over northern RI and northeastern CT into adjacent interior southern MA. Highs 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain coastal areas except snow or rain NH Seacoast, sleet and rain with pockets of freezing rain northern RI and northeastern CT through interior MA mostly south of Route 2 with mostly snow to the north, all tapering off to a few rain/snow showers toward dawn. Snow accumulation for the event under 1 inch immediate coastal areas, 1-3 inches away from the coast except 3-5 inches north central MA through interior southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of a few snow showers except rain or snow showers Cape Cod early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for disturbances with possible periods of snow or snow showers. No solid indication of bigger snow events at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some snow or snow showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 17 2021