C-19 Chat Post – February 21 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

High pressure slides south of our region today and Monday with two nice days, the colder of the two being today (especially this morning) and a milder day for Monday (Presidents Day). Tuesday, low pressure will cut northeastward across the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley or across far northern New England, putting us on the warm side, so we’ll see rainfall here. Earlier I thought we may have to deal with a period of freezing rain somewhere inland for the start of this, but right now I think the timing of the rain’s arrival will be late enough Tuesday morning so that we won’t see this take place. A cold front trailing the departing low will swing through here Wednesday and we’ll turn windy and drier, although it will be mild initially before temperatures start to go down. This sets up a fair and seasonably cold day Thursday as high pressure sits over southern Canada but noses into the northeastern US as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain late morning on. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57 by midday, then turning cooler. Wind S shifting to W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Storm threat February 25, favoring snow/sleet over rain. Fair, seasonably cold weekend February 26-27. Storm threat February 28 and/or March 1.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Temperatures below normal, precipitation near to above normal with additional wintry precipitation possible.

C-19 Chat Post – February 20 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

A strong disturbance will cross our region today and bring 2 areas of precipitation through from west to east.. The first one coming at midday and early afternoon will be fairly benign and consist of some light rain/snow shower activity, with rain most likely at the front edge and closer to the South Coast. It is the second area that will be with a strong cold front trailing low pressure passing to our north which will cause a very narrow but more intense area of snow squalls accompanied by strong and gusty winds. This will cross the region from west to east mid through late afternoon. In any given location it will only last for several minutes, no more than about a quarter of an hour, but while it is occurring, visibility can drop to near zero, winds can gust over 30 MPH and a quick coating to 1 inch of snow can occur, making things very slippery during and after it falls, as some partial melting and then refreezing will take place. There is even the possibility of a few instances of lightning and thunder in the line. Once this goes by, it’s just going to be a windy and cold night with icy areas remaining on untreated surfaces where the snow fell. Sunday and Monday we see dry weather as high pressure slips to the south. It will start cold Sunday then recover somewhat, and a much milder Presidents Day is expected. Low pressure moving in from the west brings unsettled weather as we head toward the middle of next week, with initial ideas being a track to the west and a threat of rain over snow here, but we may need to watch surface temperatures for the possibility of some icing over interior areas, depending on the timing and details, which will be figured out…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Light rain/snow showers west to east midday and early afternoon. Snow squalls likely west to east mid through late afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially late-day, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as freezing rain in some interior areas.. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Fair, cooler February 24. Next storm system threatens in the February 25-26 period and has a better chance of encountering colder air and being in the form of frozen precipitation. Fair, seasonably chilly weather to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Pattern looks colder with additional wintry weather precipitation threats in early March.

C-19 Chat Post – February 19 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

We’re right at the end of our rain and wind event as I type this update just after 8:00 a.m. on Friday. If you are northwest of Boston (basically outside of I-95) and were outside or looking outside you saw a brief “car-wash” burst of rain and wind. There are actually a couple of these “line segments” moving through the area early this morning, and they represent the cold front. Even if you don’t see the heaviest rain with these, that front is coming through, and soon the rain threat will shut off from west to east, replaced by dry air, a sun/cloud mix, and a shifted but still gusty wind during today. Temperatures were at their maximum for the day in the upper 50s to lower 60s during the overnight hours and will be falling throughout the day today, but not drastically. However, by tonight we’ll end up well below freezing and any standing water that is not dried by today’s wind will freeze up. Keep that in mind if you have to venture out tonight and early Saturday. As for Saturday’s weather, a vigorous disturbance will be moving across the Northeast, and with colder air in place, that means the chance of snow showers here, except possibly rain shower activity closer to the South Coast. Right now I expect that we’ll see two batches of this activity, one in the midday to early afternoon hours, and another one later in the day. The second of these will likely be narrower but more potent, and may contain heavy snow squalls that white-out the visibility and drop a small snow accumulation in a short time, quickly making roads and walkways slick. Tomorrow night, we’ll have a genuine blast of cold and windy weather, setting up a cold start to Sunday. Although high pressure slipping to our south quickly on Sunday will allow the wind to shift to west and southwest and that combined with a good deal of higher angle sun will make it feel nicer by afternoon. This trend will continue with a legitimate warm-up for Presidents Day Monday, when many areas make a run at or exceed 50. However, our theme of quick changes continues, and the next low pressure area should be upon us with the threat of unsettled weather by Tuesday – with the early ideas on this being more of a rain threat than a frozen precipitation one. More fine tuning for that as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Clouds, rain showers, and rain squalls into mid morning west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Temperatures fall to the 40s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing, shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers/squalls possible except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind W10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 32-39. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

A boundary will sit in our region for most of next week. One low pressure system departs early in the period with any rain/mix ending, then a second system around February 25 may have colder air to work with with a better chance of wintry precipitation or a variety. Temperatures trending colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Pattern looks colder with additional wintry weather precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – February 18 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A lot of activity in the weather department for us in the coming days, both in the short range, and beyond, but first we tackle the next five days, starting with a warm one today! We’re immersed in a strong southwesterly air flow now, with some areas having enjoyed some nice sunshine this morning, but eventually clouds becoming dominant as we remain in a warm, windy air mass with temperatures climbing right into this evening. A strong cold front will be moving toward us from the northwest, and a ripple of low pressure moving up along it, passing to our northwest, will finally accelerate this boundary through our region Friday morning. Tonight and early Friday we’ll see widespread rain showers along with gusty winds, so a wet and windy ending to our brief warm spell is a certainty. Once the front goes by, the winds shift, stay gusty, and the temperature goes down Friday. It does look like the wind and dry air will be able to take care of drying most of the ground before the temperature goes well below freezing at night, so icy patches will be limited. Saturday, a vigorous disturbance will cross the region with a chance of snow showers and snow squalls, except rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast. This briefly reinforces the cold air for late Saturday to early Sunday, but quick moving features means high pressure will already be sliding south of the region during Sunday and we’ll have a temperature recovery from a cold morning to a tolerable afternoon, with even further moderation for Presidents Day on Monday as high pressure slides off the Atlantic Coast to our south.

TODAY: Areas of sun until midday otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53 South Coast, 53-60 elsewhere late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers arriving from west to east overnight. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts of 35-45 MPH inland and 45-55 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing, shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers/squalls possible except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind W10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A boundary will sit in our region for most of next week. Two low pressure systems should impact the area, the first early in this period, favoring a track to the north with rain favored, the second later in the period with an uncertain track and more possibility of a variety of precipitation. Variable temperatures, mildest early in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits nearby or over our region.

C-19 Chat Post – February 17 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

At dawn today we observed another wide temperature range after a clear and calm night, with lows in the single digits above zero over most inland locations except lower teens in urban centers and ranging up to the upper teens to lower twenties at the coastline. Today, we head up to a higher level than yesterday as we see a sun/cloud mix ahead of an approaching warm front. This front will pass by tonight and prevent the temperature from falling. In fact, it will hold steady in the evening then rise later at night. By Thursday, we’ll be immersed in a southwesterly air flow that will continue to drive the temperature up. While this is going on, low pressure will be traveling northeastward along a sharp frontal boundary that will be drifting southeastward toward our area. The low center will travel from Ohio through northwestern PA, northwestern NY, and across northwestern New England Thursday night and early Friday, eventually accelerating the frontal boundary across our region during the morning hours on Friday. Widespread rain showers and gusty winds will occur during this process. Strongest wind gusts will be in the coastal plain, and additional strong gusts may occur right with the frontal passage. As we get to midday and afternoon Friday, look for dry weather to return but continued windy conditions, with falling temperatures. So an upside down temperature day where the highs occur before the sun comes up, and it goes down after. Colder air becomes established Friday night, and a low pressure area will come rapidly along from the west on Saturday, its center to pass to our north, but its energy spread out along a trailing trough that brings the chance of snow showers to our region, reinforcing colder air for Saturday night and Sunday, which will be dry as high pressure slips by just to the south.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind SE-S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening, slowly rising overnight. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53 South Coast, 53-60 elsewhere late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts of 35-45 MPH inland and 45-55 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, but diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

A disturbance will pass by to the north on February 21 but it will be dry. Frontal boundary sits just to the south then moves into the region as we move through next week with a couple low pressure areas impacting the region with unsettled weather, but too early to determine details of timing and possible precipitation type(s).

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits nearby or over our region.

C-19 Chat Post – February 16 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

If you were up and out early, you got to experience some pretty cold air to start your day, as low temperatures ranged from -5 to +15, which is a fairly typical range for a set-up like this in winter. We’ll still be cold today but most areas will recover to make a push for 30F. Sun will become mixed with clouds as an upper level disturbance approaches, and a few of these clouds may produce insignificant snow flurries today. We clear out tonight, and another cold night results as winds will be light as high pressure moves overhead. Then the high slides offshore and we see a stronger temperature recovery Wednesday. Clouds move in later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night as a warm front goes by. Thursday and early Friday, strengthening low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and travel down the St. Lawrence Valley. Its cold front will get closer to the region later Thursday and it will take until early Friday for the front to pass through and finally move offshore as a second developing low pressure wave moves along it and then finally helps pull it through. This process will result in us seeing our warmest air in the evening and at night, but also a widespread area of wind-driven rain showers, and possibly even a few damaging wind gusts. The entire thing pulls offshore during Friday and the wind switches and it dries out and gets colder. I do think the precipitation will be long gone before we’re cold enough to see any mixing or snow, so it should be a less messy ending to this event than we saw from a couple other ones recently, but look for the wind to be quite active for a good part of Friday as well before diminishing at night. A disturbance will cross the region Saturday kicking the wind back up and possibly bringing a few snow showers too.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny with isolated snow flurries afternoon. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13 except -2 to +5 normal cold spots. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening then slowly warming. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east afternoon. Highs 53-60 except 46-53 South Coast, occurring late-day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Moderating temperatures as we head through this period, dry weather to start out then an increase in the unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits in the region.

C-19 Chat Post – February 15 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

We’ll say goodbye to our snow event this morning, then get ready for some notable weather changes again during the next 5 days. As the final flakes depart, eventually, in eastern areas, the cold takes hold and lasts through Wednesday morning. Both tonight and Tuesday night will see radiational cooling when some very cold low temperatures will likely be observed. Today, we stay in the 20s for most areas, while after the cold start, Tuesday recovers a tiny bit more, averaging around 30 for highs. Look for a few isolated snow showers Tuesday as an upper disturbance crosses the area. High pressure moves overhead early Wednesday, providing the cold morning, then shifts offshore by afternoon, allowing a stronger temperature recovery with fair weather. Wednesday night, clouds move in rapidly with the approach and passage of a warm front. This will set us up for an unseasonably mild day Thursday when we make another run at 60, though the warmest temperatures may not occur until the evening when we see numerous rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Like we’ve seen a couple times recently, the sharp warm up will not last long, as a strong cold front moves through early Friday. The question to be answered will be if any of the rain will flip to snow before the precipitation moves out. I’m leaning toward the dry air winning the battle, but something to keep an eye on. We will see temperatures drop during the day Friday after highs during the early morning hours.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of snow eastern coastal areas into late morning, otherwise a clearing trend with increasing sun west to east. Additional snow accumulation of under 1 inch for far eastern locations. Highs 20-27. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 in normal cold spots, 3-8 most locations, 8-13 urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13 except -2 to +5 normal cold spots. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening then slowly warming. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east afternoon. Highs 55-62 except 48-55 South Coast, occurring late in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely early, may end as mix/snow showers especially northwest of Boston, then a sun/cloud mix. Temperatures falling to the 30s.Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

A disturbance may bring a few snow showers to the area February 19, otherwise expect it to be windy and cold with mostly dry conditions. High pressure brings fair weather and a gradual moderation in temperature after this, then a boundary nearby increases the chance of unsettled weather toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading through the final days of February as we sit near a boundary between cold to the north and mild to the south, making the temperature outlook more uncertain.

C-19 Chat Post – February 14 2022