C-19 Chat Post – 8-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

A pretty decent production of rainfall by the warm front portion of our low pressure system yesterday resulting in up to a few inches of rain in the jackpot areas of southeastern MA, especially Plymouth County. Other areas enjoyed the benefit of 0.50 to 1.50 inch but there were some “have-nots” that ended up under the 0.50 inch mark. Such is the nature of summertime rain. But in general, a helpful event for the drought. We’re far from ending it, but anything we get is definitely a positive. And some areas are in for more today. But this time the activity, associated with an approaching cold front, will be more in the form of classic showers and thunderstorms. After a morning that starts out with lots of clouds, areas of fog, and a cool mugginess, the wind will pick up and help clear us out at least somewhat, and enough to get some decent daytime heating. We’ll see some initial showers and possible thunderstorms pop up in a south southwest air flow well ahead of the cold front, and some of these can cause brief downpours. These will be around from midday through the first part of the afternoon. Later in the afternoon and into evening, a couple or a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms will have more of a west-to-east movement across our region, with activity most favored west of and up to the I-95 corridor, with less of a chance of the activity pushing into southeastern MA and RI before it has weakened and is in the process of dissipating. The frontal boundary will pass by the region by late evening but may linger a bit just offshore Wednesday, which will feature some additional clouds. Also, a little disturbance passing by to the north may trigger a couple isolated pop-up afternoon showers mainly over interior locations later in the day, but the probability of any location seeing that is very low. High pressure will dominate the weather Thursday with very warm, dry air. Friday, the high pushes offshore and a cold front approaches. It will be a very warm and slightly more humid day and with the approach of the front, add in the chance for a shower or thunderstorm, current timing favoring those being west and north of Boston later in the day with areas to the southeast only seeing remnant showers sometime in the evening or night. Either way, the front pushes through and high pressure from Canada builds to our north and sends a cooling north to northeast wind into our area to start the weekend, with fair weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, favoring areas in the I-95 corridor westward. Any storms can lead to brief road / parking lot flooding. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be variable and briefly gusty around any shower or storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Very slight shower threat interior areas afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible evening. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Ironed out the uncertainty and August 28 looks like it will be a nice finish to the final weekend of August with high pressure shifting east of New England, fair weather and a southeasterly air flow, keeping the coast coolest while it warms nicely inland. Fair and slightly more humid weather August 29 and then we’ll watch for a frontal boundary to approach the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat sometime between late August 30 and late August 31 – timing uncertain, and a possible shot of cool/dry air to start September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate the first several days of September with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Our best shot at beneficial rain to scratch the surface of the drought comes today as a warm front lifts toward and into the region ahead of advancing low pressure. A broad albeit weak trough of low pressure will help provide energy for this system, increasing the chance that at least a couple swaths of heavier rain and possible thunder occur with fairly widespread showers this afternoon and evening. My thinking is that a general 0.25 to 0.75 inch can be expected with spot amounts of 0.75 to over 1.00 inch are very possible. Some of the heavier rain can lead to quick areas of flooding, so keep that in mind if traveling. Once the warm front lifts through tonight, the rain chance dwindles to just a spot shower or thunderstorm in the warm sector, but what will be a relatively cooler (compared to the weekend) but humid day today will transition to a mild and muggy night. Tuesday, the low parenting the warm front will bring its sibling cold front across the region, triggering scattered showers and a few heavier thunderstorms. This does not look as widespread an event, nevertheless some heavy downpours are possible and can impact travel for brief times. The front will struggle to clear the area quickly and because of that some cloudiness may hang around Wednesday, so I’m not expecting complete clearing at this time. High pressure will push in though with dry weather returning including lower dew point air which will last through Thursday, a day that will feature more sun. On Friday, the high pushes offshore and we heat up a little bit with an increase in humidity, but an approaching cold front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The timing and coverage of this activity is uncertain, but early indications are that it will lack good support and therefore have limited coverage.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely with embedded downpours and possible thunder from south to north during the afternoon and evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Isolated showers / thunderstorms possible. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, favoring areas in the I-95 corridor westward. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be variable and briefly gusty around any shower or storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

There is a little uncertainty in the forecast for the final weekend of August (27-28) with disagreement in the medium range guidance. Leaning toward a sun/cloud mix Saturday (27) with lower dew points, and more humid air and cloud cover for Sunday (28) but not sure yet if showers will threaten. Fine-tuning of this outlook will take place as the week goes on. With uncertainty to start this period, there is obviously some beyond that as well and we’ll be watching for a frontal boundary to approach and pass the region sometime in the last few days of the month with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate the first several days of September with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up, and a chance of some unsettled weather by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure hangs on with a splendid summer day today, although the humidity creeps up a little more and will be somewhat more noticeable. Some areas started the day with a deck of stratus clouds but this has been and will continue to vanish as the morning sun climbs higher into the sky. We’ll see some high cloudiness in the sky today in advance of a warm front, as well as the development of a few fair-weather cumulus, so overall it will be a sun/cloud mix for our sky. Thicker cloud cover keeps the temperature down Monday ahead of a warm front which will generate showers and possible thunderstorms as it approaches and crosses the region, parented by low pressure passing to our northwest. It’s cold front will come along Tuesday with additional showers and storms. While Monday’s showers may have decent coverage and be beneficial in terms of providing some drought relief, Tuesday’s activity will favor areas north and west of where the drought is most severe, and coverage either way should be less than Monday. The other issue limiting drought relief is we’ll not be following it up with more beneficial rain quickly as an extended stretch of dry weather begins again at midweek as high pressure builds back into the region, although clouds may be stubborn to depart Wednesday as the front that went by doesn’t clear the region in any hurry.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 83-90, cooler coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 64-71, warmest urban areas. Patchy fog. Dew point 60s. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periodic showers likely and embedded downpours possible. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas from the I-95 corridor westward. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

High pressure brings dry weather and warm air to the region August 26-27. Watching later in the period for a frontal boundary to increase the humidity and shower / thunderstorm risk, but doesn’t look like a widespread beneficial rain chance this far ahead. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The end of August and early days of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

A summer weekend with mainly fair weather and modest humidity – not great for our drought but very good for outdoor activities. The only thing we have to watch for is a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the area, otherwise high pressure will be in general control and most areas will have a rain-free weekend. Monday, things change as a disturbance approaches and moves into the region with its warm front bringing a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, a spike of humidity. It will continue humid into Tuesday along with a shower and thunderstorm chance as a cold front crosses the region. This front will bring drier air in by Wednesday but clouds may be stubborn as the frontal boundary hangs up close to the South Coast, where there may even be a few showers.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds morning. Sun and puffy clouds afternoon with only a slight chance of a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly interior locations west and northwest of Boston. Highs 85-92 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog overnight interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

Model issues make using medium range guidance iffy at best, but from what I can discern of the pattern it looks mostly dry with above normal temperatures August 25-27 then a shower / thunderstorm chance later in the period with a frontal boundary moving into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

The end of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

The return to the feel of summer begins today as a warmer westerly flow between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England brings in warmer air but with fairly low humidity. The high slides offshore for the weekend bringing a very warm and increasingly humid southwesterly air flow to our region, though humidity levels will stay below the oppressive category despite their noticeable rise. Cloud cover will be limited much of the time, with just passing patches of clouds lingering today around the base of upper level low pressure as it departs while a few fair-weather cumulus will pop up and drift along in the wind. Tomorrow’s cumulus pop-up should be a little more prolific but not enough to interrupt the sun for long periods of time. I’m keeping the shower chance out of my forecast but a shower or storm may pop up in the mountains to our west, but something to watch just in case one wanders into the western reaches of the region or pops up in those areas due to an outflow boundary later in the day. Also, a sea breeze may get going in coastal areas for a while Saturday, keeping temperatures in check there while inland areas heat more. Sunday will be similar in terms of heating up best inland while a sea breeze can scale things back at the coast, and this time the sky coverage may be more from higher clouds, but thin so that they only veil the sun. Bottom line: Nice summertime stretch of weather through the weekend. Things change early next week as a broad area of low pressure crosses the region from west to east. Its warm front brings lots of clouds and the threat of some shower activity Monday, with a spike in humidity, setting up a shower and thunderstorm chance as the cold front crosses on Tuesday. Details can’t be determined for days 4 & 5 yet so that will take place later.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds by midday-afternoon. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog overnight interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

High pressure re-gains control with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures dominant until late period when a shower and thunderstorm chance re-appears with a disturbance moving in.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

The final days of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time. One stronger front from Canada may introduce a brief shot of cooler air but I don’t have high confidence in this at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure’s greatest impact on our region yesterday was clouds and wind, and not the beneficial rain we were looking for. In fact, most of the WHW forecast area received traces to feeble measurable amounts (0.01 inch at Boston, for example). This provided no help in reducing the drought, which will now build further as we enter another stretch of dry weather. First, a few very light showers are crossing northern MA and southern NH to start the day today, around the circulation of the departing low pressure area, a pretty strong storm for this time of year despite having failed us on rain. We’ll see a clearing trend which has already worked across the South Coast continue to expand northward, though as the storm’s clouds depart, some fair-weather clouds will likely pop up in response to the sun’s return and the cool air aloft, so we may not really see complete clearing until tonight, when high pressure starts to build in. This high will provide us with a fair and much warmer day Friday, with lower humidity, and the high will continue to keep us fair through the weekend. Saturday will feature the brightest sun and still-manageable humidity. Sunday you’ll notice some cloudiness filtering the sun in response to low pressure to our west and south, and also an up-tick in humidity as the high center will be offshore. By Monday, the door will be open for the chance of showers and noticeably humid air, though this time the temperatures will be kept in check and we won’t heat up like our recent hot stretch.

TODAY: Stray light showers early morning southern NH and northern MA, otherwise a cloud/sun mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts this morning, diminishing slightly during this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point below 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 80-87 except 70s coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Higher humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance early next week then a trend toward seasonably warm and dry weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

The final days of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

I can’t say I’m surprised that the original multi-day beneficial rain threat has dwindled to a “gee I hope we can get a few hours of rain enough to wet the ground at least” event. For reasons (model-wise and otherwise) that I have already talked about on this blog, while staying hopeful I wasn’t going to hold my breath on this being a significant event for all of us. However there will still be some areas that get benefit out of this, maybe up to 1/2 inch of rain, favoring northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as mentioned on yesterday’s blog update. Elsewhere, I don’t hold out much hope for many areas seeing more than 1/4 inch. In fact, there are enough thin spots in the overcast this morning that the sun is shining through it. With low pressure moving to the north, keeping a lot of its influence over the water to our east, hooking it back just enough to get the previously-mentioned areas with a little more rain later on, the forecast from yesterday remains pretty much unchanged. One other thing to watch today will be for some minor coastal flooding due to rough surf and some larger ocean swells. This will be most likely a couple hours either side of high tide. We’ll still be under the influence of the circulation of this low pressure area on Thursday as it pulls away, so expect a few morning showers possibly in southern NH and northern MA, otherwise a day of lots of clouds, limited sun, and a gusty breeze. High pressure then builds in with a return to the feel of summer Friday through the coming weekend. Humidity, while on the rise, will remain in check until later in the weekend when it will rise to more uncomfortable levels.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of rain and drizzle, mostly insignificant, but some steadier rainfall more likely in northeastern MA and southern NH during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast with gusts 25-35 MPH Cape Ann and Cape Cod and up to 25 MPH remainder of coastal plain.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain most likely southern NH and northern MA. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point below 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Higher humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance early next week then a trend toward seasonably warm and dry weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-17-2022