DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
Offshore low pressure continues to throw its cloud shield over our region, thickest to the east, thinner to the west, and this will be the case much of today, though with some variation. Once again sun will be most limited to start the day and more able to shine through that cloud deck with time as the orb makes its transit across the sky. The air flow between that low pressure out there and high pressure to our northwest and north will tilt more northeasterly today than it was yesterday, keeping it chilly, especially along the coast where it will only make the lower 40s while inland has a better shot at upper 40s. But before we get to the high temps today, it’s colder away from the coast to start out the day (20s many areas as opposed to 30s coast). Unsettled weather is going to be with us for much of the remainder of this week. The offshore low slides back to the west somewhat, throwing some of its moisture toward and eventually into southeastern New England later Tuesday. While I expect most of this to occur in the I-95 belt eastward, Tuesday night’s temperatures to the west can be near or just below freezing allowing any light rain there to create some surface icing – so be aware of that potential. A cold front associated with an eastward moving trough initially slows down in response to the low to our east, but will then move into and across the region during Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will send a push of milder air into our region, but also additional moisture in the form of rain showers. As the front ambles offshore it will pause as a stronger low pressure wave develops and moves up along it, bringing us our best chance at widespread, somewhat heavier rainfall on Thursday. This system will exit during Friday, but the continuing question to answer is just how quickly this will happen. Medium range guidance continues to have different depictions of this scenario, some showing a quick eastward exit, some showing a much slower exit with wet weather into much of Friday, and some even showing snow getting involved in the late stages of the system as colder air is pulled into it. The scenario I am leaning toward is the same as yesterday, a wet start then drying trend Friday, but this is still not a high confidence forecast and may not be for a couple more days.
TODAY: Thickest clouds east with covered to dim sunshine first half of day. Thinner clouds west with filtered to potentially brighter sun second half of day. Highs 40-47, coldest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.
TONIGHT: Clouds advance westward. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly I-95 eastward, but any spotty precipitation that makes the I-495 belt may fall as freezing rain. Lows 31-38. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Steadier rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas / Cape Cod.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, especially eastern areas. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas. Clearing trend follows. Highs 42-49. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)
Dry, breezy, chilly weather expected for the March 30-31 weekend with a northwest to west air flow. The first few days of April present an opportunity for unsettled weather with rain/mix/snow chances as low pressure tracks to our south with cold high pressure in eastern Canada.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
Similar pattern into the end of the first week of April with additional opportunities for unsettled weather. May be push of high pressure with fair weather to end the period and we’ll be keeping a close eye on April 8 for solar eclipse weather viewing (more to come about this soon).