9:23AM
I’m speeding up the timing of things just a touch today, and for this reason, I think most areas north and west of Boston will be OK for fireworks displays tonight, as I think the main threat for storms will be done by around 6PM. This may not be the case in areas to the southeast, however there is still a shot at less activity there as well.
The cold front responsible for the storm threat today is already weakening, and though there is some nice upper air support with a disturbance for storms, the weakening of this front is a negative factor, as is some somewhat stabilized air over southeastern New England, put in place by an onshore flow yesterday. Further, a fairly solid line of storms already moving into western New England will have a stabilizing effect on the air out there, and a fair amount of cloudiness will limit sun over much of the region.
To me, all of this points to earlier showers and storms, less threat of severe weather (though it cannot be ruled out), and not much activity as we move into evening and tonight, except a continued threat over southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands.
What’s left of this front will hang up just south of New England Monday and await a disturbance moving along it early in the morning which may send some showers and storms across southern MA, CT, & RI, and also provide focus for a few showers and storms to pop up during the day, again as mentioned before, the main threat being along and south of the Mass Pike for this activity. The vast majority of the region will be rain-free Monday.
Looking into next week a bit further, high pressure will build along the East Coast Tuesday & Wednesday, with warm to hot July weather, though no excessive heat will occur. A cold front moving through the region on Thursday will trigger showers and thunderstorms. High pressure should return at the end of the week with drier air and great weather for Friday and at least the start of the weekend…
Updated Boston area forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers after 10AM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from noon to around 6PM from Boston north and west, mostly after 2PM in areas to the southeast, with a couple of organized storm lines possible. Any storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Isolated severe storms are possible. Anybody with outside plans should be very alert to the sky and look for approaching storms from the west at any time. Warm and humid. High near 80. Wind S to SW 5 to 15 mph, but variable and gusty near some storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until around 9 or 10PM south of the Mass Pike and especially over far southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & the Islands. Mild and muggy. Low 64 to 69. Wind light W.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly along and south of the Mass Pike first thing in the morning and again during the afternoon and early evening. Most locations will be rain-free. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.
THURSDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.