10:44PM

It’s not too often we see tropical downpours and muggy air with a north wind, but we did today in eastern New England. The drier air was hiding behind a weak cold front to the north, which is sliding south across the region this evening. The showers and storms have ended and the air will begin to dry very slightly overnight. There will still be enough moisture in the air for areas of fog and low clouds to form as the temperature cools down overnight, but any of that will dissipate early Tuesday as the sun rises. Sunshine will give way to increasing high & eventually middle clouds on Tuesday as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. This system will bring a pretty good slug of rain in overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. With heaviest rain likely over by the middle of Wednesday, it should remain unsettled through the evening. Drier weather is expected to arrive Thursday and last through Saturday, before yet another low pressure area brings a chance of wet weather for the second half of the weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog. Low 63-68. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Any low clouds and fog dissipate with sun increasing during the morning hours. Increasing high to eventually middle clouds with sun becoming limited in the afternoon. High 71-76 coast, 76-81 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms after 1AM. Low 63-68. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 69-74. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

SUNDAY: Showers likely. Low 64. High 74.

11:30PM

We are currently in a pattern of no heat, though it is muggy, and somewhat unsettled weather. This will continue through the middle of the coming week as a trough of low pressure slowly moves across the northeastern US. This unsettled and muggy stretch may climax with a significant rain event on Wednesday.

When we get to Thursday, Friday, and the start of the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will bring drier weather, but by Sunday, we may be back into wet weather once again. The reason for that is that, unlike I thought the other day, the overall pattern is not going to change too much through the middle of this month. Eventually, I do expect a strengthening ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic to bring a bout of classic summertime weather sometime during the second half of August.

The Boston Area forecast for the week ahead goes like this…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly east of Route 495. High 75-80. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Low 64-69. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly west of Route 495. High 74-79 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Low 63-68. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms in the morning, tapering to showers in the afternoon. High 68-73. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 74.

3:25PM

Here’s a short, quick forecast update, as I was away yesterday and didn’t have a chance to update. Full update including the discussion for the week ahead will be coming later this evening!

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Showers mainly Boston south ending, lingering mist/fog near the coast also ending, clouds breaking and becoming partly sunny from west to east. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible in areas that see sun coming out. High 75-80, cooler along the shore. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers early. Low 65-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. High 76-81. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Low 63-68. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY:  Rain and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 69.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 64. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 79.

7:56PM

Just updating the forecast based on the latest info. No long discussion this time. But noting that the weather will be important to several outdoor events this weekend, including Yankee Homecoming Week activities in Newburyport MA, which includes fireworks at Cashman Park Saturday night, and another fireworks display in Beverly MA on Sunday. And of course, the Pan Mass Challenge.

Saturday looks like the driest day, and the best beach day, though not perfect as there will be fair amount of clouds mixed with some sun. Sunday stands the greater chance of wet weather over a larger area, but there is some chance that the heaviest rain may be more to the south and also very early in the day. Some computer models show additional heavier rain later in the day. Based on the uncertainty, there forecast will be worded with more generality with room for update later.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Low clouds developing. More humid. Low 62-67. Wind light SE becoming S.

SATURDAY: Low clouds breaking with a mix of sun and clouds for most of the day. Isolated showers are possible well inland during the afternoon or early evening hours. Humid. High 75-80 immediate coast, 80-85 elsewhere.  Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers after midnight. Muggy. Low 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Very humid. High 75-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 63. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

7:21PM

Normally I will go out 7 days with my forecast on Sunday night in “The Week Ahead” blog. Today, I’m doing a version of that, but with an even further glance ahead to the overall pattern I expected through the middle of the month (or basically the next 2 weeks).

For my meteorologist readers: NAO going more negative at this time and staying there for the most part until around August 10, then coming back toward neutral or even slightly positive as we get to mid month, along with negative PNA.

For my non-meteorologist readers: The pattern of no major heat and occasionally unsettled weather will persist until around August 10, at which time we will become more likely to see late-summer episodes of HHH weather as the Bermuda High setup may become established for a period of time. This pattern also makes us need to watch for tropical activity in the Atlantic, as it can help storms approach the East Coast.

Boston Area Forecast

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light SE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Low clouds redevelop. Low 62-67. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Low clouds melt away but variable mid level clouds mixed with sun. A few building clouds especially N-NW of Boston in the afternoon with an isolated shower possible. More humid. High 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mainly after midnight. Muggy. Low 65-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 75-80. Wind SE-E 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY:  Variably cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

TUESDAY:  Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 78.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

7:00AM

An air flow off the Atlantic is keeping us cooler and this will continue through Friday. Some episodes of low clouds will occur but it will not be cloudy all the time. Winds shift to more southerly by Saturday allow it to warm up and get a little more humid, though no major hot weather is in sight through the weekend and into next week. We have to watch for a low pressure system which could bring more widespread showers sometime on Sunday. Timing on this system is uncertain.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 72-77 coast, 77-82 inland. Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 83.

SUNDAY: Chance of showers. Low 65. High 79.

2:53AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. High 75-80. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind E under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 73-78. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

11:50PM

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 63-68. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Variably cloudy afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially from 3PM to 7PM. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours, small hail, and strong wind gusts. High 84-89. Wind W around 10 MPH except near thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 62-67. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80, except cooler near the coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

SATURDAY: AM showers. Low 67. High 83.

SUNDAY: AM showers. Low 66. High 82.