C-19 Chat Post – April 8 2020

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)
Another mild day today, except this one will have a little more sea breeze activity in coastal areas which will turn out somewhat cooler. Two low pressure areas moving along quickly will impact the region Wednesday, with mostly morning rain, and Thursday, with mostly midday and afternoon rain. The end of the week will feature windy and chilly weather with a passing rain shower threat Friday and a breezy and cool but dry Saturday as a broad area of upper level low pressure moves across the region from west to east.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain early to mid morning, favoring I-90 south. Mostly cloudy midday on. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, mostly from late morning to late afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 46-53. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)
Low pressure brings a threat of rain by late April 12 into April 13. Fair, milder April 14 but cold front passes late April 14 or early April 15 with rain shower threat then breezy and cooler weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)
Below normal temperatures. Watching for a wave of low pressure with a precipitation threat favoring the first half of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – April 7 2020

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)
It’s springtime in New England, and good weather can have its down sides just as wet weather can have its up sides. Read on to see why… High pressure will bring fair and mild weather to the region today and Tuesday, very nice for any outside activity you can manage to do. The down sides? If you are an allergy sufferer, the next 2 days will likely be rough as the early-season pollen count spikes pretty high. Also, today’s sunshine and gusty breeze will spike the fire danger risk. Brush fires can start easily and spread quickly in these conditions. Tuesday night, a cold front will slip down from the north and chill us down, and quickly a low pressure area will be moving along that boundary from west to east to provide several hours of soaking rain, an overcast and much cooler Wednesday, with a follow up system to bring yet more wet weather on Thursday. The up sides? The wet weather will cleanse the air of pollen and relieve allergy sufferers, while also squelching the fire danger. When we get to Friday, behind the second low pressure area will come a gusty wind, lots of clouds, and the risk of a few passing instability showers as a broad upper level low pressure area will still have to cross the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Spotty drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and periods of drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)
Breezy, cool, dry April 11. Low pressure brings a threat of rain back April 12-13. Fair, milder April 14. Front brings rain shower threat then breezy and cooler weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)
Low confidence forecast here. Will watch for a wave of low pressure with potential precipitation early to mid period and improving weather thereafter. Temperatures below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 6 2020

8:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)
For now the weather pattern has returned to a west to east movement and this means milder weather the next couple days, although a weak front will pass through this evening with a few rain showers. The pick of this 5-day period will be Monday with most sun and mildest air. Remember if you are out and about to practice safely according the the guidelines put in place. The weather will still be nice Tuesday but we will have to continue to keep an eye on a frontal boundary to the north which would cause a quick temperature drop when it came through the region. Right now leaning toward this happening late in the day or evening from north to south, so a lot of the day may stay mild. A low pressure area will travel along this boundary and result in a chilly wet Wednesday, then the boundary may push back to the north ahead of a low pressure system heading from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday, pushing some warmer air back into the region, but with an additional rain shower risk as a cold front approaches late-day or at night from the west.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and periods of drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of drizzle early. Chance of rain showers late-day and evening. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)
Dry, breezy, cooler April 10-11. Will need to watch for a wave of low pressure and possible unsettled/chilly weather April 12-13 before improving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)
Overall pattern looks cooler than average. Best chance of unsettled weather comes in the April 15-17 window.

C-19 Chat for today…
No name-calling.
No shaming
Have a good day. Stay safe & healthy.
Follow the guidelines. Flatten the curve.

Working on the weather post now.

8:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)
The very large and strong ocean storm that brought wind, rain, and some coastal flooding over the last couple days is now pulling away, having completed its cyclonic loop offshore southeast of New England. This means there will be slight improvement in the weather this weekend. Enough dry air should work in from the north today to break up the clouds to allow at least partial sun for some of the region. By Sunday will be enjoying a milder land breeze, but lots of clouds will still be around as a trough and weak front approach from the west. This front may deliver a few rain showers Sunday night before moving offshore and opening the door for an area of high pressure with fair and milder weather for Monday. A back-door cold front may slip down the coast from Maine into southern New England Tuesday to chill the region down somewhat, and this may set up a chilly and wet Wednesday as a wave of low pressure comings along from the west.
TODAY: Cloudy start with area of drizzle especially South Shore to South Coast of MA. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday on. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially near coastal areas through midday.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55 occurring in the morning or midday, then cooler. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)
Tricky forecast with timing and boundaries. Here’s my best shot. Warm front passes and puts us briefly into breezy and warmer conditions April 9 but the day may start chilly and damp and end with rain showers as a cold front approaches. Dry, windy, cooler April 10-11. Will have to watch for a wave of low pressure with chilly and unsettled weather April 12 and/or 13. This system may be occurring with cold enough air around for some mixing with frozen precipitation, but it’s a long way off so will monitor trends.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)
Overall pattern looks cooler than average. Best chance of unsettled weather comes in the April 15-17 window.

This is the first of daily COVID-19 posts for the purpose of the discussion of the ongoing pandemic. The only rules for these posts are basically the same as the weather posts. While it’s inevitable that the actions of politicians will have to be part of the discussion, as they are charged with the job of getting us through this (federal, state, and local), please remember to choose your words wisely. It is ok to disagree with an action by an elected official, but don’t resort to name-calling and especially vulgarity because that won’t help anybody. As always, if you disagree with someone else commenting, a discussion is fine so long as it is kept civil. No shaming. No name calling. No threats of any kind. If you feel you can’t be civil with somebody, then refrain from communicating with them. It’s that simple. Aside of a few reminders, this will be the only time that I spell out those rules in grand detail. I trust that we can all follow them. This section was created to help you all discuss the situation. Your participation in it is strictly voluntary, and there will be a weather post available to chat weather if you do not wish to take part in the COVID-19 discussion. How long these posts will continue daily will be determined by the situation going forward, and will be something I will evaluate in the future. It will not be a permanent feature of the blog, but rather will be temporary until we don’t really need it. In the mean time, use it wisely and I hope it helps!

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)
A quick update here. Not many changes. A very large ocean storm which would have had major impact on the region had it been closer in its loop will have just moderate impact with wind and rain, including coastal rough surf, until early Saturday before it pulls away and the weekend gradually improves. A weakening front will cross the region in the early hours of Monday, fairly unnoticed. The trend after a chilly Friday-Saturday will be for a moderation in temperature through Monday before we knock it back a little bit on Tuesday as the air flow may become onshore again with a disturbance passing to the south and high pressure shifting its center to the north.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts all areas which may reach or exceed 30 MPH inland and easily exceed 40 MPH coast with some gusts in the 45-55 MPH range.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain early morning, mainly south of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)
West to east flow in the weather pattern but broad low pressure crossing the region may bring a rain shower risk for the first couple days of the period. Temperatures near to above normal through mid period then cooler late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)
A cooler pattern for this period with the potential for a storm to impact the region with rain or even mix around April 13 before a drier trend arrives.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
A large ocean storm southeast of New England will do a broad cyclonic loop and send lobes of moisture into southeastern New England with periods of rain and breezy to windy conditions through Friday, before things start to transition back to a more west-to-east flowing pattern over the weekend and early next week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain.. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
West to east flow in the weather pattern but broad low pressure crossing the region may bring a rain shower risk for a few days mainly early to mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
Trending cooler again, need to watch storm track to determine impact ranging from just rain showers to a steadier rain/mix situation developing especially early to mid period.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
April arrives with a blocking pattern still in place. This pattern takes low pressure passing south of the region today and forces it to do a broad anticyclonic loop east of New England Thursday and Friday, which means lobes of moisture from it will back into the region Thursday into Friday with wet weather. Any rainfall is beneficial as it goes to lessening the deficit we have, reducing brush fire danger, and cutting down early-season pollen. Things will start to move the more traditional west-to-east way again when we get to the weekend, which will be dry, starting chilly then warming up slightly as a small area of high pressure moves across the region then offshore. A weak frontal boundary moving in from the west by Sunday night may trigger a rain shower.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible early. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, gradually diminishing west to east later in the day. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a rain shower evening. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
A little more west to east movement may continue in the pattern with milder conditions overall and some unsettled weather mainly the middle 3 days of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Low confidence again but still leaning a little more away from blocking and a milder more progressive pattern at this time.