C-19 Chat Post – September 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

It’s been a while since a forecast outlook has been filled with many fair weather days, but this one is filled with 4 out of 5. The slower timing of the next frontal system makes it pretty much a Thursday system, with two fair-weather days on either side of it. First, high pressure moves over us today with a top 10 kind of day, then the high slides offshore for a warmer and slightly more humid day on Wednesday before a slow-moving cold front crosses the region taking nearly all 24 hours of Thursday, possibly delayed by a wave of low pressure on the front that may also enhance rainfall. But despite it’s slow movement, the front will clear the coast by Friday and we end up with two great days with dry weather and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend Friday and Saturday as Canadian high pressure arrives. Also, still need to mention the large swells, rough surf, and rip current risk for coastal areas late this week due to offshore Hurricane Larry. Keep that in mind if you have any beach/boating plans.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arriving from west to east. More humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure moves offshore with fair and warmer weather September 12. Right now it appears the next frontal boundary comes through quietly early September 13 with fair weather continuing through mid period with only a slight cool-down. Next round of unsettled weather comes September 15 and/or 16 with the approach and arrival of a trough and frontal system from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A generally zonal (west-to-east) flow pattern is expected with limited rainfall chances and a couple air mass changes keeping temperatures variable, but not that far from normal overall.

C-19 Chat Post – September 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

We start Labor Day with a lot of clouds. It’s a rainy early morning across the southern coast of Cape Cod as well as over Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, but this rainfall will depart soon and the region will experience an increase in sunshine later this morning into midday. However, we still have a trough of low pressure to cross the region and this may kick off a few isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring areas north and west of Boston, during this afternoon to very early evening. Much of the region will be rain-free today, with decent travel conditions for those returning home from what is considered the closing weekend of summer. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday with slightly cooler, dry air. High pressure slips off to the east on Wednesday and we warm up as well as seeing an increase in humidity as a warm front passes through the region. Following this is a cold front which now looks slow enough to allow our region to escape with rain-free weather into Wednesday evening before we get a couple rounds of showers and possibly a thunderstorm later Wednesday night into Thursday, before drier air finally arrives late Thursday. High pressure builds in with more fair weather for Friday. Additionally, as we get to later this week (Thursday-Friday) our coastline will see larger swells, rough surf, and rip currents associated with Hurricane Larry, which will be well offshore but as a strong storm.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy early into mid morning including rain parts of Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard. Sun/cloud mix remainder of day with isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly west and north of Boston this afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Partly sunny midday with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mostly sunny later in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Offshore Hurricane Larry may continue to result in increased swells, heavy surf, and rip currents along the coast into the beginning of next weekend before subsiding. Keep that in mind if planning any beach or boating. Weather-wise, high pressure is expected to bring fair weather for the September 11-12 weekend with a cool/dry start and warm/humid finish. Low pressure systems bring potential wet weather September 13 and again at the very end of the period, based on current timing in a west-to-east flow.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Expecting the west-to-east flow pattern to continue with limited shower chances around air mass changes, some up and down temperatures, but averaging slightly warmer than normal for the period overall.

C-19 Chat Post – September 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

The middle day of the Labor Day Weekend will be the “least fair” but also could be much worse. We’ll have a cloud-dominated day as a warm front approaches, but any shower activity will be fairly limited during the day with the better chance of passing shower activity occurring during tonight. Humidity levels come up today and into early Monday but not to oppressive levels, until a cold front, which may kick off a shower or thunderstorm, passes by during the day Monday from west to east across the region. Overall, Labor Day itself will be a fairly nice day with more sun than today. High pressure brings fair weather Tuesday but a warm front which approach later Tuesday with more clouds arriving, putting us into a warmer and more humid air mass into Wednesday when a cold front will approach with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Another drier air mass is expected to arrive during Thursday behind that system.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 70-77. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible early. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH wit higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Hurricane Larry expected to be far offshore but as a strong storm will result in large ocean swells, rough surf, and enhanced rip current activity along the coast. West to east upper level air flow pattern expected. Best guess on timing of disturbances is late September 10 to early September 11, and again late September 12 to early September 13. Temperatures will vary but will not stray too far from normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Likely to see a continued west-to-east flow pattern with limited shower chances around air mass changes which result in some up and down temperatures but with warmer than normal in control the majority of the time. Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season and with conditions somewhat favorable for additional activity in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin we will continue the need to be vigilant in regard to this.

C-19 Chat Post – September 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

It’s a 2 1/2 out of 3 kind of holiday weekend, and honestly all 3 days will have very nice weather. Today is the sunniest day with lowest humidity as high pressure moves from over the region to just offshore. Humidity comes up a little bit on Sunday as a trough approaches from the west, bringing more clouds, but still a fair amount of sun, and then a trough crosses the region later Sunday night into Monday (Labor Day) when our best chance of showers comes, but we likely salvage many rain-free hours on Monday too. When you compare the three “warm season” holiday weekends this year, this one wins. Looking into next week a little, the next trough approaches later Tuesday bringing a warm front toward the region, then a cold front swings through Wednesday. I’m favoring faster timing of this feature in a quick west-to-east flow and a minor and fairly brief shower threat with the passages of the fronts.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 73-80. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers followed by clearing. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

West-to-east flow aloft. Best guess timing of weak disturbances / fronts with shower threats is September 10 & 12. Much of the period is likely to be dry. Offshore Hurricane Larry produces a period of large ocean swells, rough surf, and enhanced rip current risks.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Likely to see a continue west-to-east flow pattern with limited shower chances around air mass changes which result in some up and down temperatures but with warmer than normal in control the majority of the time. Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season and with conditions somewhat favorable for additional activity in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin we will also need to be vigilant in regard to this as well.

C-19 Chat Post – September 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

As surface high pressure approaches from the west today an upper disturbance will be moving across the region. The combination is dry air but a sun/cloud mix and a chance of a couple pop up showers forming. High pressure moves overhead tonight with a clearing and cool night resulting, then the high slides offshore Saturday with a pleasantly warm-up during the day and a spectacular start to the Labor Day Weekend. The rest of the weekend will be impacted by a low pressure trough moving across the region from west to east with varying amounts of clouds, although at this point I think shower activity will be fairly limited with just scattered activity around later Sunday and part of Monday. I would not cancel any outdoor plans for that. Another trough may approach as early as the end of the day Tuesday with more clouds but I’m not sure of the timing of that yet.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple passing showers possible. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 70-77. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Current timing suggest shower threats exist about September 8 and 10, otherwise mostly dry weather with some up and down temperatures from a generally zonal flow weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Same basic pattern – some up and down temperatures with limited shower chances. We will have to keep an eye out for disturbances and possible tropical activity both south and east of New England for potential impact, even if indirect.

C-19 Chat Post – September 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

The very heavy rainfall event that was made up of the remains of Ida combined with a frontal boundary is coming to an end and we’ll be left with a gusty breeze as we start to dry out this morning behind departing low pressure. Winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds toward New England from southern Canada but we will still be in the northeasterly air flow through Friday until the high builds right over the region for the start of the Labor Day Weekend with dry, pleasant weather. The high shifts offshore by Saturday night and low pressure passing north of the region will bring a quick warm front / cold front combo through the region Sunday, which will have more clouds and the risk of showers, but I expect these to be limited. Fair weather returns behind this system for Monday to finish off the Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Showers/downpours lingering over Cape Cod until mid morning. Any lighter shower end elsewhere. Clouds break for sun. Highs 67-74. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Current timing suggest shower threats exist about September 8 and 10, otherwise mostly dry weather with some up and down temperatures from a generally zonal flow weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Same basic pattern – some up and down temperatures with limited shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The now post tropical remains of Ida will present themselves as a mass of tropical moisture riding along and over a frontal boundary with a strengthening area of low pressure later today through early Thursday, the low center tracking near or over Cape Cod. This path and set-up is good for a widespread heavy rainfall event from later today to early Thursday morning, resulting in areas of flooding. Travel will be impacted for a number of hours and even into Thursday after the rain ends as it will take a while for things to dry out. Wind will be only a minor issue as the intensifying system moves by and pulls away, but even some moderate wind gusts can be enough to result in power outages due to wet and already stressed trees on saturated ground and their ability to damage power lines. Drier air will be coming into the region behind the departing system for the remainder of Thursday and into Friday on a northwesterly air flow, and the air will be just unstable enough on Friday for the potential for a few isolated diurnal showers to develop, but most of the region stays rain-free. Looking into the Labor Day Weekend, high pressure brings dry and pleasant weather Saturday, and the next system’s arrival is going to be a little sooner than I was anticipating previously, so look for clouds and a shower chance Sunday morning-midday as a warm front passes through, and just a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in a few locations later Sunday or Sunday night after we’re briefly in a warm wedge of air and a cold front approaches as low pressure passes north of our region.

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest along the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain, often moderate to heavy. Embedded thunderstorms favoring the South Coast especially Cape Cod. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog into mid morning with rain and embedded thunderstorms diminishing from southwest to northeast. Becoming partly sunny by late morning on. Highs 67-74. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts, but a period of variable wind possible Cape Cod region, shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Brief visit from high pressure bringing dry weather for Labor Day September 6. Passing disturbances bring shower chances September 7 and again later in the period. Mild September 7, cooler September 8, milder later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Cooler early and late period, mid period warm up. Limited rainfall chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 1 2021