Another surge of Arctic air is moving in behind a cold front that crossed the region today. This front brought clouds and a few isolated light snow showers though most areas did not see any snow. High pressure behind this front will build across the region Monday, which will be bright & cold. However, you will notice some high clouds beginning to stream in from the west before Monday afternoon is over. These high clouds are the first warning of a 2-stage storm system that will begin February.
The first part of this system will take place as a frontal boundary sets up to the south of New England and a wave of low pressure rides eastward along it. With plenty of cold air in place, snow will fall with this system over all of MA & southern NH, as well as much of CT & RI. Only the far southern coast of New England may see some mixing with sleet, freezing rain, and rain later Tuesday before the precipitation tapers off. Snowfall amounts from this system should range from around 2 inches in southern NH to 3-6 inches across MA, northern CT, and northern RI. Slightly less snow will fall toward the South Coast where mixing gets involved. There is a chance that a few locations along the Mass Pike and up to 20 miles either side of it could see a spot 7 or 8 inch snow amount. The time frame for the snow for the Boston area will be mid to late morning for the first flakes of snow, peaking during the afternoon, tapering off by evening.
Tuesday night, between parts 1 & 2 of the double-barrel storm, expect just a few snow flurries.
Wednesday, a stronger storm system makes an approach, and there is some question as to where this one tracks. As is often the case, the computer models vary somewhat on their predicted track, with a couple of them taking a further northern route, and a few others keeping the system further south. The further north this low pressure area rides, the greater the chance that sleet, freezing rain, and rain would get involved. I am currently favoring a colder scenario and a storm track a bit further south, with the low center passing near Long Island Wednesday night. Assuming this is how it plays out, expect snow to break out from west to east across the region Wednesday morning, with precipitation lasting through the afternoon & into the evening. A change to sleet & freezing rain will probably occur from south to north at least into the Boston area for a time. From near 495 N&W, I’d only expect a mix with sleet for a while but otherwise primarily snow. Liquid rain (where temperatures go above freezing) should be confined to Cape Cod, the Islands, and the South Coast of CT/RI/MA Wednesday afternoon & evening. A band of icing is likely somewhere over inland southern New England, but it’s a little too early to know where this will set up. Areas that stay all snow or mostly snow have the strong potential to see 6 inches or more from part 2 of this system. Bottom line, the details may not be 100% clear, but it is likely to be a very messy day across the area.
The last of the precipitation should be winding down later Wednesday night, though some lingering moisture and a weak trough may produce a few additional snow showers on Thursday. Either way, Thursday & Friday will show a trend back to drier weather with plenty of sun again by Friday. However, this will be along with a shot of very cold air, once again.
And as this pattern rolls on, there are already signs of another storm chance for next weekend (leaning toward Saturday & snow for timing and precipitation type for right now).
Later tonight another blog will have a quick view text forecast for eastern MA / Boston area. Eventually I will expand this to include other areas and hopefully add graphics as well. 🙂