DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)
Discussion…
A new month has arrived and our same drought continues. The new Drought Monitor report issued this morning should indicate very similar or even slightly worse drought than last week’s. And we will continue to build in this drought as the long term precipitation pattern remains deficient. In the nearer term, i.e., this 5-day forecast segment, we’ll talk about 2 rain chances, but neither look overly impressive to me. First, we have a nice day today to start the month of October, not really due to any big high pressure area, but just a dry westerly air flow. There may be a few patchy clouds forming during the day and evening, but this may serve to make the sky a bit more decorative for the rise of the first of two full moons this month, tonight’s Full Harvest Moon (cue Neil Young!). Things change on Friday when clouds return more substantially with the approach of a low pressure disturbance. But it looks like the main ribbon of rainfall associated with this is going to travel across NY and western New England, and as a trough pulls eastward later in the day into the evening it will just send showers through the WHW forecast area, so I’m not looking for any beneficial rain from this. This sets up a dry weekend as high pressure builds in from the west, so that will continue to aid in building the drought and keeping fire danger elevated, although it will provide nice weather for outdoor activities (yard work, farm visits, etc.). Monday is expected to be an unsettled day and the second rain chance in this 5-day period. There is a considerable spread in what this system is forecast to look like even just between 2 major models (European & US models), with the Euro (ECMWF) touting a wind and rain event of some significance while the US model (GFS) showing a much weaker, more progressive system comprised of 2 pieces of energy that never really completely come together. You already know which solution I favor by what I said above about our rain chances over the next 5 days. 🙂
Details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. A few afternoon showers. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower early evening. Clearing but patchy low elevation fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Dry October 6 and a rain shower risk with an approaching cold front later October 7 (possibly hold off until night). A cool start October 6 then a warm-up through October 7. Fair and cooler weather October 8-9 as Canadian high pressure moves in. Clouds may return at the end of the period as it starts to warm up again but any rain chance will likely be limited.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Overall pattern features a west to east (zonal) flow in the atmosphere but some northward displacement to the jet stream allowing warmer than normal weather for most of this period.