DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A pretty potent low pressure area is passing southeast of New England early today but is far enough out to sea that it barely got its rain area over the South Coast, and that exists via Cape Cod this morning, leaving the region with a dry but breezy and cool day as clouds try to hang on through the day. Upper level low pressure scoots southeastward across the area tonight and very early Tuesday with a few snow showers mainly in NH and eastern MA. The balance of Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, will be nice but on the breezy side. A small area of high pressure crosses the region Tuesday night allowing the wind to drop off, but the wind picks right back up Wednesday as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves in with clouds and a rain shower threat. This warm up continues through Thursday but additional wet weather arrives later as low pressure heads northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes. The low will then move down the St. Lawrence Valley Friday, dragging a cold front across the region with more wet weather, and putting an end to the warm-up. The timing of the front will help determine the high temperatures for Friday. My early idea is a midday frontal passage, a very mild and wet morning, and a colder and drier afternoon with plenty of wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Early rain Cape Cod. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 morning, falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Dry weather expected over the February 18-19 weekend with a gusty breeze and chilly air Saturday, less wind and a little milder Sunday. Minor system may scoot through with a bit of precipitation February 20 and watching a larger low pressure system with a precipitation threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Flatter ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast allows the boundary between warm air to the south and cold air in Canada to be in our region with a more unsettled pattern as a result. Many details to work out in the days ahead…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

A pleasant winter Sunday finishes off our weekend today. It starts bright but ends less so as clouds advance ahead of approaching low pressure. The low is destined to pass southeast of New England on Monday, with its precipitation shield, in the form of rain, getting into the South Coast region, but not much further north than that – perhaps up to the Plymouth MA area. I’m taking the end-of-system snow chance out of the Outer Cape Cod region because the system will be moving too quickly and the air that is cold enough to support any snow will not be in place quickly enough. Behind this system comes a small but potent disturbance to pass through the region early Tuesday with the possibility of snow showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, where spotty minor accumulations may occur. This moves out quickly though and the balance of Tuesday is nice, but on the cool side. The return of milder air on Wednesday will trigger cloudiness and possible spotty rain shower activity, but I don’t think we get a clean warm frontal passage initially – I think we get a wavy boundary in the region, so we have to wait on Thursday for another surge of warmth to arrive, probably with a lot of clouds and some additional potential rain. This has me doubting the magnitude of warmth being advertised by some outlets, although it will most certainly be a day of very mild air by February standards either way. So I leave a little bit of fine-tuning to do for the end of the 5-day forecast period and move on to the details the best I have them now…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain up to South Shore. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning rain Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with possible snow showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA early, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25, 11-18 in normal cold spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Fridays seem to be our dramatic day of the week this month, from arctic outbreak on February 3 to warm surge on February 10, and now February 17 looks like a warm start, strong cold front to pass with showers and wind, and much colder finish. Timing of the front may be earlier and warmth may be shorter lived – will monitor that. Following this looks to be a drier period of weather, chilly over the February 18-19 weekend, milder after.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Pattern gets more interesting here as we see the Southeast ridge flatten a bit and colder air dominating Canada and not far away. Boundary nearby, watch for a series of low pressure systems to start impacting our region. Probably on the mild side of these initially, but that may change with time…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A dry weekend for our area. Today will be a gusty and cool day between eastern Canadian low pressure and a high pressure area to our southwest. The high pressure area will drift into the region tonight into Sunday, diminishing the wind, but as this happens a new storm system from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will track across the US Southeast and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by later Sunday, passing southeast of New England Monday. This system will skirt the region with a period of rain most likely across the South Coast region possibly briefly getting into the Boston-Providence corridor before the system starts to move away. Just as it does so, cold enough air may work in to change the last of the rain to mixed precipitation or snow on Outer Cape Cod, but too late for any significant snow accumulation. Behind this system it will turn a little colder, and a disturbance dropping southeastward out of eastern Canada and into the trough accompanying the storm may bring a few snow showers early Tuesday to our region, especially southern NH and eastern MA, before the rest of the day is fair. A disturbance approaching on Wednesday from the west and southwest brings back some clouds and maybe a bit of rain, as we go right back to mild weather as has been the case so often this 3rd year La Nina winter…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain up to South Shore. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning, may end as snow over Outer Cape Cod, then some clearing possible during the afternoon especially in areas north and west of Boston. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible pre-dawn southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with possible snow showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA early, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25, 11-18 in normal cold spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds. A touch of snow or sleet possible mainly west and north of Boston then a chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind calm early, then S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

A quick blast of warmer air February 16 into February 17 but may be pinched off a bit by a low pressure center that tracks a little closer to New England than models indicate – meaning the leading edge of warmest air arrives not too long before the cold front that trails the low pressure area. This system will bring a period of rain and showers, maybe even thunder along its cold front, and a fair amount of wind especially in the warm sector and behind the cold front as it turns dry and colder for February 18. High pressure settles in for fair and more tranquil but chilly weather February 19 and then watching for a low pressure system to approach with a precipitation chance by the end of the period – obviously timing uncertain at 10 days out.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Low pressure heads eastward across southeastern Canada becoming a larger presence in the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday. A weak cold front moved through our region but this morning we’re left with mild air and light wind, which has allowed some dense fog in parts of the region while other areas have cleared out. A freshening westerly wind will scour out any fog quickly this morning but we’ll stay mild during the day today, warming up enough to challenge a couple record high temps in the area. However, a secondary cold front will swing through later, generally unnoticed except for its delivery of colder air tonight through Saturday. High pressure sliding south of the region over the weekend means a quick temperature rebound Sunday, but only half way between Saturday’s temps and today’s temps (are you paying attention? haha!). We’ll have a generally fair weather weekend as well. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday however ahead of and north of developing low pressure southwest and west of New England. This low will track offshore on Monday, definitely close enough to spread its cloud canopy across the region, and probably close enough for some rain to move into at least southen areas, most certainly the South Coast and quite possibly up to the I-90 corridor and even northward into some of the I-95 belt to the north of I-90 as well, at least for a short period of time, before it starts to move away later Monday, setting us up for fair weather for Valentine’s Day on Tuesday as high pressure approaches.

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise sunshine with a few passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Chance of rain near the South Coast and possibly up to the I-90 belt. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning with some clearing possible during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

High pressure shifts quickly to the south and southeast of New England allowing for a significant mid week warm up next week – temperatures to well above normal. A frontal boundary brings rain showers at mid period followed by a return to dry but more seasonably cold weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Low pressure tracks through the eastern Great Lakes and across southeastern Canada today into Friday, dragging its warm front / cold front combo through our region. This will be a minor precipitation producer with only areas of light rain arriving this afternoon into tonight and maybe a left over rain shower early Friday. Behind the cold front, the air will actually be warmer than today’s ahead of warm front air, with a couple record highs potentially being challenged. A secondary cold front will sweep across the region Friday evening setting us up for a cooler weekend, but no major cold and certainly a far, far cry from the arctic blast of late last week. Generally dry weather is expected for the weekend, but low pressure organizing to our south will spread cloudiness back into our region during Sunday. While this low, fueled by Gulf of Mexico moisture and a southern branch of the jet stream, will pass not all that far south of New England, a strong northern jet stream in a split flow will likely limit its ability to impact our region, with the northern extent of the precipitation shield potentially advancing into our region for some wet weather Sunday night into Monday, but favoring the South Coast and areas south of I-90 as it stands now. It’s going to be a close call though. A slight shift either way expands the precipitation northward or pulls it mainly offshore. Whatever does make it into our region will likely fall as rain with a significant lack of cold air remaining, but the temperature may be marginal especially inland, so if the precipitation did happen to make it further north and west into the region, some mix/snow would have to be considered. For now, this is a remote possibility, and I’ll keep an eye on the potential heading through late week and into the weekend.

TODAY: Clouds move in. Scattered light rain during the afternoon hours. Some sleet possible north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 by late day. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain and areas of fog during the evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Temperatures rising slowly to 48-55 by morning. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a quick passing rain shower possible in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast and possibly up to the I-90 belt. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning with some clearing possible during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW and diminishing later.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A broad southwesterly air flow aloft will be the dominant feature as low pressure troughing dominates the western US with the all-too-familiar Southeast ridge in place to our south. Surface high pressure brings fair weather for Valentine’s Day before a disturbance brings the chance of rain showers February 15. Watching for another system with rain and possible mix in the February 16-17 window with dry weather to follow that. Temperatures averaging above normal, may cool to normal end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Our weather pattern will be a mild one overall but holds several weather changes as we move through the remainder of this week and over the weekend. One must remember that a “mild” pattern in the winter doesn’t mean you can’t have winter weather issues. Last night, a frontal boundary crossed the region with a brief period of precipitation, falling as mostly rain and sleet, with some of that rain falling as freezing rain especially west and north of Boston and over some interior portions of southeastern MA and northern RI as well. This leaves untreated surfaces where the precipitation fell on the slick side in these areas early this morning, and this will be an issue until the temperature rises above freezing in these locations, so anybody venturing out this morning please take note of these and be safe. Otherwise, a nice winter day can be expected as high pressure dominates. But don’t get used to any persistence, as additional changes are ahead. A warm front approaches Thursday, bringing clouds back in and a period of rain, which may start as some snow and sleet over interior southern NH and central MA. The low pressure area parenting this front will track northwest of our region and its fairly weak cold front will come across the region Thursday night with some rain shower activity. Behind this front however is not much in the way of cooling, in fact, quite the opposite because the air will be sufficiently modified and the upper pattern supports a surge of mild air, with high temperatures on Friday that may challenge some records. The question is how much sun do we get? Not sure we clear enough to support the record-breaking temperatures, but it is a potential. Heading into the weekend there are a couple more questions to be answered. A secondary front coming through on Saturday will send our temperatures back to a more seasonable chill during the course of the weekend. There will be two waves of low pressure to keep an eye on. Low pressure wave number 1 will pass south of the region Friday night and Saturday. Guidance has trended a bit further south with this system and it does appear that most of the precipitation will remain to the south of New England. What does reach the region would most likely be limited to the South Coast and be in the form of rain sometime Friday night into Saturday. The second low pressure wave carries a little more uncertainty and may surge its way into a little more of southern New England by later Sunday. If its precipitation shield does make it in, the odds of some frozen precipitation being involved would be a little higher with colder air in place. This will be watched closely and fine-tuned as we get closer to it…

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain mid to late afternoon that may begin as snow or sleet well north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 occurring late in the day. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast late evening and overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain near the South Coast early. Highs 40-47 then falling slowly. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow, favoring southern areas, in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Watching for minor systems around mid period and maybe a slightly stronger one at the end of the period with precipitation threats. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Hard to time any systems that may threaten, but early indications are that one may approach late in the period with a rain/mix/snow threat once again. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Weak high pressure starts us out with sunshine today, then a cold front approaches from the west later on with clouds, and this front will produce a brief but messy precipitation episode this evening, snow/sleet north, rain toward the South Coast, and an area of freezing rain between. Untreated surfaces in some areas may become slippery this evening and overnight. High pressure brings fair weather back to the region for Wednesday with a gusty breeze for a while behind departing low pressure initially, before that settles down. Thursday dawns bright but clouds advance ahead of a warm front that brings a period of rain, that may start as sleet and snow to the north and west. That front goes by and sets us up for a very mild Friday with lots of clouds. A cold front then slides across the region Friday night into Saturday with rain showers, and the front likely hangs up so that we have additional wet weather on Saturday as colder air filters in, maybe meaning some mix/snow before the day is over in areas to the northwest.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening precipitation – snow/sleet/ice/rain north to south. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of sun, few clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain mid to late afternoon that may begin as snow or sleet well north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 occurring late in the day. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may mix with sleet/snow southern NH and central MA later. Highs 40-47 then falling slowly. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Rain/mix/snow possible early in the period and another system threatens later in the period with precipitation. Mostly dry weather in between. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

One or two low pressure systems may impact the region with precipitation threats as an active pattern goes on.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A mild and active pattern will be with us for the next several days, though despite the number of disturbances to pass by, none of them will have much impact. There will be a fair amount of clouds in the sky today. These clouds are on the western side of a strong storm system that is located well off the coast. Its only impact on our region will be a little bit of rain this morning over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands before it’s moving further away. Other cloudiness will drift in from the west as part of an older, dissipating disturbance. A narrow area of high pressure will build in for Tuesday with fair and nice weather, but later in the day and at night a frontal system will cross the region, bringing mainly rain showers due to the mild air, but the temperature will be marginal enough so that some sleet and snow may occur in portions of central to northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. That’s offshore by early Wednesday and we have a fair and mild day that day as another area of high pressure moves in. This day will be the pick of the work week. Low pressure heading through the eastern Great Lakes and destined to pass to our north will drag its warm front across our region on Thursday, bringing clouds and an area of rain back into the region. It may be cold enough at the outset of the precipitation for it to begin as sleet and snow across southern NH and interior northeastern to north central MA, but not expecting much of a problem from this. The milder air overtakes the region again on Friday as the system’s weak cold front moves in, probably not with much precipitation but probably without a lot of clearing. In fact a wave of low pressure may bring back wet weather later Friday, depending on timing.

TODAY: Clouds dominate / sun limited. Early to mid morning rain at times Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then N increasing to 10-20 MPH, some higher gusts especially coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening, except some sleet/snow mixed in well north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of sun, few clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain midday and afternoon that may begin as snow or sleet well north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 occurring late in the day. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain possible Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Unsettled weekend with a slow moving frontal system and a wave or two of low pressure to move through, with a trend to colder we’ll see rain potential change to frozen precipitation at least for parts of the region before ending. Watching for another unsettled weather system toward the end of the period but timing uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

One or two low pressure systems may impact the region with precipitation threats as we’ll be in an active pattern at mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

For now it’s back to the pattern we’ve been in – generally mild – following our brief but intense arctic blast. Sometimes when the large scale pattern is as stable as it has been this winter, the interruptions are quite temporary and you’ll go back to the longer-term pattern until something else is ready to change it. That’s what we have this winter with the cold West and mild East, which, while not having a lot of cases to go by, seems to be a characterization of a 3rd year La Nina winter – though we won’t know for sure any time soon. Mere scientific speculation at this point. Anyway, what’s coming up? Up and down temps but overall mild. A warm front already went by last night, and a weak cold front comes along this evening while a stronger storm develops well offshore with no impact here. Warm front goes by early Tuesday and cold front comes along later Tuesday to early Wednesday as another low goes by to our north in southern Canada. And another warm front approaches Thursday. This sounds more active than the unsettled weather we’ll see from it all, which will be rather limited during the next 5 days.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a rain shower possible in the evening. Some clearing overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Unsettled stretch. Milder again then trending colder. Precipitation at times, odds favoring liquid earlier in the period and frozen by mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

The worst is over, and now the recovery begins. With a cold blast comparable to the one of Valentine’s Day 2016, some records were set, some obliterated, some places were a bit colder than that outbreak while others were right around the same as that day. In short, it was wicked cold out!!! And it still is, but it’s starting to warm up, slowly for now, but eventually to accelerate. In fact even with a temperature recovering only to the teens above zero by later in the day, with the wind dropping off you’d think it was much milder than it actually is, because at that point it is in a relative sense. As high pressure slips to the east and south of New England and a warm front quietly swings through, we’ll really feel it turn milder on Sunday, back to the 40s, and as our old friend Barry Burbank (WBZ TV) often said, it’ll be “a veritable heatwave!” on Sunday. We get a little bit of a hiccup in the warm up as a weak cold front slides back across the region by early Monday, but back we go to the warmer side of the front on Tuesday as low pressure heads rapidly eastward through southeastern Canada. Its cold front will come through by early Wednesday, cooling it down again but not nearly to the levels we have just endured.

TODAY: Sunny but some clouds may show up by later in the day. Temperatures rising gradually to late day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later. Wind chills still below -20 at times, easing later.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds come back again. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a rain shower possible in the evening. Some clearing overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Unsettled stretch. Milder again then trending colder. Precipitation at times, odds favoring liquid earlier in the period and frozen later in the period. Lots of details to work out in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The arctic boundary is just clearing the South Coast and crossing Cape Cod as I write this at 7 a.m. Friday, and now it’s time to endure about 36 hours of intense arctic cold, coming in on moderate to strong north northwest wind today, peaking tonight and very early Saturday, and easing by later Saturday. Please be safe if you have to be outside at all during this time. Recovery from this arctic blast will be quick from later Saturday through Sunday, when some areas will see temperature rises in the neighborhood of 50 degrees in 30 hours. A southwesterly air flow on the back side of arctic high pressure, which doesn’t waste any time moving to our east, will be the reason. Some cloudiness with the return of the milder and more moist air will be the result Saturday night and Sunday at times, but right now I am continuing the trend of no precipitation through Sunday that was evident yesterday. At most a few flakes of snow could occur in northern and western areas Saturday night with the passage of a warm front. After a wave of low pressure goes by to the north on Sunday, the boundary comes back as a cold front later Sunday and thwarts the warm up for a day on Monday, but this time we’re not going to see arctic air behind that front. The boundary, now in a wavery mood, goes back to the north again for Tuesday with a stronger low pressure wave moving through the Great Lakes, and before its cold front crosses the region some time that night, we’ll see a pretty mild day on Tuesday.

TODAY: An early-morning snow shower near the South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise sunshine and a few passing clouds. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -8 I-95 belt westward from I-90 north, -7 to 0 elsewhere. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -25 to -45 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds come back again. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Colder air arrives behind a cold front early in the period, fair weather through February 9, and watching the February 10-12 window of time for a potential winter storm threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

A fair and seasonably chilly day today before we experience a short-lived but strong blast of arctic air, to last about 30 hours. Not much has changed regarding the timing, duration, and expected intensity of the cold / wind. We’re looking at an early-morning cold frontal passage on Friday, maybe a passing snow shower with the front, a temperature fall all day, increasingly dangerous wind chill values, the core of the cold going through Friday night and very early Saturday, then a slow temperature recovery and diminishing of wind later Saturday through Saturday night, and a return to near or even slightly above normal temperatures with more cloudiness on Sunday. A fairly quiet and milder stretch will be ours for the early part of next week. And if you’re wondering what is prognosticated beyond this 5-day period, I have news for you. Just moments ago (as of the time I’m writing), the world’s most famous groundhog, Punxatawney Phil, emerged from his winter’s nap to see a shadow and declare that we have 6 more weeks of winter – that is assuming that winter actually starts any time soon around here. 😉 Well, I guess our reminder is coming in a hard-hitting way in 24 hours, so there you go. It just isn’t going to hang around as our overall very mild winter goes on. If you want to know what’s going on around here beyond this 5-day period, read on after you get through the detailed forecast just below…and Happy Grounhog Day… ……again………. 😉

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible early, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -20 to -40 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

We’ll be near a frontal boundary with at least a fair amount of clouds at times and possible precipitation a couple times during the first couple days of the period. Fair/dry/seasonably chilly weather returns mid period, and may have to watch for the next storm threat by the end of the period, which may bring a potential variety of precipitation or even something frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Watching for two potential impacts by low pressure with possible wintry precipitation during mid February.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

We open the month of February with a wave of low pressure to the south having been close enough for another very minor South Coast snowfall, even extending up to parts of the South Shore of MA. That moves out quickly and we see dry and seasonably chilly weather across our region for the balance of today as well as through Thursday too, as high pressure becomes the main driver of the midweek weather here. Look out though! Here comes a short-lived, sharp blast of arctic air – the coldest we will see since a similar occurrence on February 14 of 2016. The cold front will go through around dawn on Friday, give or take an hour or two either side, from northwest to southeast, and may be accompanied by a brief snow shower or snow squall, especially in southern NH and northern MA as any of that activity will be tending to dry up as it heads southward. Then it’s Montreal Express time as we watch the temperature plunge and the wind blow, putting us into the deep freeze for the balance of Friday, through the night, and well into the day on Saturday, with conditions starting to ease up as we move through the day Saturday – less wind with time and a very slow temperature recover. When you have a deep arctic shot timed this way, the temperatures the following night don’t tend to fall again, but stay fairly steady or even rise, and that’s what I expect Saturday night. Heading into Sunday, a significant recovery continues and takes the region back above freezing for high temperatures. Earlier thoughts of some unsettled weather with the return of the mild air have been abandoned in favor of dry conditions with just some varying amounts of cloudiness.

TODAY: Clouds early with any snow ending across southeastern areas. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible early, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -20 to -40 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

We’ll be near a frontal boundary with at least a fair amount of clouds at times and possible precipitation a couple times during the first few days of the period. Fair/dry/seasonably chilly weather returns later in the period, based on current timing and expected pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Watching for two potential impacts by low pressure with possible wintry precipitation involved heading into mid month.