7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)…
Though many want to focus on days 2 through 4, the holiday weekend, our main focus today should be day 1, which is where the only threat of unsettled weather will be. But there will be folks fortunate enough to have today off that may cancel beach plans after looking at a weather app and seeing “thunderstorms” there. It’s important to focus on the details, which those apps fall short of being able to do. But fortunately, you have come to the right place. The focus will follow this shameless self-plug for the blog. But you have indeed come to the right place for a description of what the weather is expected to do in basic terms, with more technical explanation in the comments that follow. So what is really going on today? A brief push of humidity ahead of and accompanying a disturbance, which will send a cold front eastward across the region tonight. Ahead of this, as the air grows more humid during the day, a few isolated showers may occur. The main action is likely to come in 1 or 2 clusters or a possible line of storms tonight which in whatever form it takes will enter western New England as early as sunset, then traverse east and northeast across the southern New England forecast region through around midnight. I must stress here that there may be a large portion of the region that see only showers or a brief garden variety thunderstorm, but the potential exists for some of these thunderstorms to be strong to severe. This will occur on a much more limited basis, so while most do not see severe weather, those that day could see a storm that packs a punch with the potential for damaging winds and hail. Though lightning is not considered when determining whether or not a storm is severe, any thunderstorm produces lightning and any lightning that is of the cloud-to-ground variety is potential dangerous or deadly, so shelter from that should always be found, regardless of the severe weather threat. It would benefit you to stay tuned to local news updates by later today and this evening to see what the details of the event turn out to be. I’ll be updating my WHW Facebook page as well as the comment section below tonight as well. Whatever occurs tonight will settle down overnight and no more than a quick back of showers/storms may visit Nantucket and Cape Cod first thing Saturday morning as clouds depart the remainder of the region, if they have not done so already, and leave the door open for a fabulous Fourth Of July Weekend for the remainder of Saturday, all of Sunday, and the holiday itself on Monday, with dominant sunshine during the day, warmth, and fairly low humidity. Tuesday will see an intensification of the feel of summer, as the heat arrives.
TODAY: Patchy clouds but lots of sun this morning and midday. Increasing clouds and less sun this afternoon. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs upper 70s South Coast, lower to middle 80s elsewhere. Increasingly humid. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Showers/thunderstorms likely from west to east late evening to midnight, ending overnight. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Strong winds possible near any storms.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy early with a risk of showers/thunderstorms briefly Nantucket and Cape Cod, then mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs in the 80s, few upper 70s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s, few upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)…
Eastward movement of a ridge of high pressure and a lifting of the jet stream to the north allows for fair and hot weather with higher humidity July 6. Disturbances bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms at times July 7-8, not as hot. Low pressure moving through eastern Canada will send slightly cooler air into the region with dry conditions for July 9, before an approaching disturbance returns clouds and a risk of showers to the region by July 10. Timing of these systems is a little uncertain with the jet stream forecast to be nearby, so that as well as details will be fine-tuned with time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)…
Warm to hot and mainly dry with limited shower and thunderstorm chances as a ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the southeastern US and pushes the jet stream mostly just north of the region heading for the middle of July.