Saturday Forecast

9:17AM

COMMENTARY…
I know it’s exciting (or terrifying depending on your point of view) to see that there is a Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Caribbean and forecast to head eventually into a position in which many storms have been before coming up. This in itself is NOT a guarantee of a New England landfall. Although this can’t be ruled out, just because a few runs of one model have brought the center of Matthew to New England does not make this highly likely, and it is not the “forecast”, beyond a model simulation. You’ll see social media posts, regular media segments, etc., advertising it as a potential “end of the world” style scenario. This should not be touted as such or looked at as such with a solid week to go. In the meteorological world, it will be something we’re focusing on hard-core over the next few days, since it cannot be written off for this area yet, because you’d want to give your audience as much time as possible to prepare for any impacts that would occur with anything ranging from a close pass to a direct hit, as well as any travel plans to areas that would be impacted even if this area was not. Be cautious when comparing it to past storms. Similarities between storms and events can always be found, but this does not necessarily mean that going forward one storm or event will mirror another. Too many variable exist in our atmosphere for this to be such an easy call. I also realize it’s easy to get caught up in one computer model’s scenario, but unless you’re within a couple days of an event, and you have amazing model agreement, taking a model’s forecast and running with it is a very dangerous thing to do, especially if you are responsible for informing the public. This is something I”m always aware of and have been through my forecasting career. I’ll continue to take the same approach I always have and let people know what I know, and what I don’t. There is no need to cause panic, which does not generally allow one to prepare for anything very well.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
Upper level low pressure lifts through the region from the southwest while weakening and dissipating through Monday. The wettest of the 3 days will be today, with some beneficial rain especially for RI, central and eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Sunday will less much less rain around, but will still be a mainly overcast day with spotty drizzle and light rain. One more disturbance may enhance the shower risk for a portion of Monday. Improving weather is expected by Tuesday-Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Overcast. Frequent periods of rain with embedded downpours possible. Highs 55-62. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle. Lows 50-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and light rain but precipitation-free many areas much of day. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 50-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-56. Highs 58-65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 52-58. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
We’ll be watching Matthew during this time, obviously coming northward “somewhere” offshore as a hurricane. But not to repeat the commentary above it will just be something we’ll watch for in the days ahead. After most likely fair and pleasant weather here October 6-7, the potential impact period for the storm would be October 8-9, again based on current trends and still subject to change, with improvement for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Tranquil, mild pattern expected toward mid month.