7:24AM<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For several days now, I’ve thought that June 24 would be the greatest risk for the most places to see some kind of rainfall, and that June 26 & 28 would carry risk as well. These 3 days are now inside the DAYS 1-5 so we can hit all 3 events head on. First, obviously, today: Starts with low overcast which then breaks, much as it has the last couple days, but there have been differences each of these days. Monday we kept a regional onshore flow so the clouds were slow to break and the temperature were somewhat cooler. Tuesday we had more of a regional land breeze, clouds broke sooner, and it warmed more substantially. Both of those days so extremely limited shower activity mostly occurring west of this WHW forecast area. Today, with a cold front approaching, we have a southerly air flow and additional cloudiness moving in above the lower clouds, so even when they do break it won’t be to the brighter sunshine they broke to the last couple days in most cases. However, any sun we do get will help to destabilize the atmosphere so that there will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the region as we progress through the afternoon and very early evening. However, we will have to weight the risk highest west and north of Boston, where the combination of more sun (pre-threat) and better dynamics will exist. Anywhere that does experience a shower or storm this afternoon (and possibly very early evening to the southeast) could see brief but torrential rain, gusty wind, lightning, and even the risk of hail. But don’t take this as a definite and certainly not as a “going to happen everywhere” kind of thing. Also, while any rain is welcomed for our dry spell, heavy rain tends to run off quickly and while it can aid in being a minor recharge for a reservoir it will not help that much for agriculture as it doesn’t have a chance to sink into the ground. We’d need a slower, gentler rain for that, and nothing like that is in the cards. But I am getting ahead of myself. Once we get beyond today’s threat, we get a break for Thursday as a slice of drier air arrives. But a couple troughs need to move through from later Thursday night through Friday, and one or two rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms may occur with these. The greatest risk of something will be during the afternoon hours of Friday if we can combine one of those trough passages with daytime heating. The threat for Sunday (June 28) actually arrives first late Saturday as thunderstorms that form to our west and north may try to make a run at the region late in the day, well ahead of another frontal system. This front will be passing through the region during Sunday, so the threat of showers and storms will exist that day as well. For the weekend, the warmest \/ hottest day will be Saturday, when we are likely to see the most sun and a southwesterly wind. More clouds and a shower threat should limit our temperature rise for Sunday. But there will be additional fine-tuning to the weekend forecast over the next couple of days. Sadly, the combination of these 3 threats the next 5 days will do little to help what is pretty certainly a developing drought now. Will continue to monitor that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Cloudy start, then variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance north and west of Boston. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm favoring southeastern MA & RI early evening. Patchy fog. Slightly less humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late evening or overnight. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 79-86. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 \u2013 JULY 3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An early summer version of a temporary blocking pattern, while the pattern wants to be zonal overall, a stronger ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada and weaker upper low extending from the Northeast to Mid Atlantic Coast sets up for the last couple days of June into the first few days of July, with a general but weak northerly air flow here in southern New England. This pattern would be dry most of the time, but would provide a daily opportunity for pop-up showers and thunderstorms in daytime heating. As for details – impossible to know this far in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General zonal pattern, west to northwest air flow. Temperatures near to above normal, limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
7:24AM DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28) For several days now, I’ve thought that June 24 would be the greatest risk for the most places to see some kind of rainfall, and that June 26 & 28 would carry risk as well. These 3 days are now inside the DAYS 1-5 so we can hit all 3 … Continue reading Wednesday June 24 2020 Forecast<\/span>