DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Discussion\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thanksgiving Week. I know that travel will be far less than usual, but there will still be some people on the road, depending on their situations, for errands and visits leading up to and including the holiday on Thursday, so it’s still an important forecast for moving about during these days. This morning, a warm front divides the WHW forecast area in half, still in the cool air in most areas north of I-90 while areas to the south are warmer and more humid, and this front is trying to push northward, and as previously stated, will probably never quite make it all the way through southern NH before a strong cold front from the west comes through the entire region. Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy showers will accompany this system as it passes through, and there may even be some thunder with it. This has already been occurring in parts of the region (South Coast, RI). Areas prone to flooding will likely see some, and this may be worsened by some leaf-clogged storm drains. Keep that in mind if driving. By the end of the day, we’ll be seeing the arrival of a cold Canadian air mass via the Great Lakes, and as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region through Tuesday, we’ll see a period of dry, breezy, and chilly November weather. This won’t last long, however, as the high will slide to the east and be offshore by Wednesday. But it’s not going to be just a simple case of warming right back up on Wednesday. We’ll see clouds increase ahead of a warm front, and by the end of the day some precipitation may be generated by the approach of that front, which will probably get into the South Coast region with no issue and through the Providence \/ Hartford area and into Boston’s southern suburbs as well, but how far north of there it gets is in question. Models tend to handle this poorly, moving the warm air too far north too quickly, although some of the guidance is already catching on that this front may never quite make it as far north as northern MA and southern NH at all, and eventually a wave of low pressure will ripple along it and move over or even just south of a lot of the region through Thanksgiving Day, which looks like an overcast and wet day. But before that happens, we may have an issue with some icing over interior southern NH and northern MA as the onset of rain\/drizzle may be met with surface temperatures slightly below freezing there Wednesday evening. Regardless of how this plays out, after our unsettled Thanksgiving, conditions improve for Friday, which will be a milder and mostly dry day, although I cannot rule out a couple showers due to a disturbance moving across the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Details\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with widespread showers, some heavy, including embedded thunderstorms in some locations. Street and parking lot flooding may occur where heavier showers are occurring. Showers end and clouds break later in the day, and a clearing line may approach from the west quickly enough for the sun to appear before setting, at least in areas to the west. Highs 48-55 southern NH and northern MA, 55-62 to the south. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Highs 37-44 southern NH and northern MA, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain\/drizzle, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 to the south. Wind E to SE around 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to NW up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 \u2013 DECEMBER 2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If I wrote “I really don’t know” in this space it would be reasonably accurate. The insane model divergence tries to lead forecasters astray. Going to keep November 28-29 mainly dry and lean toward November 30 for the next unsettled system which would be in the form of rain. Drier but somewhat colder as December arrives, but low confidence on that as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Leaving this the same as yesterday: Highly uncertain outlook with many questions to be answered about the pattern\u2019s evolution, but the scenario I feel is most likely looking at it this far in advance is for dry but seasonably chilly weather early in the period, briefly milder and still dry mid period, and a possible flip to colder with a storm threat at the end of the period, although we may be very near a boundary of warmth to the south with much colder air to the north, so that would set-up a vast range of how the weather could turn out here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27) Discussion\u2026 Thanksgiving Week. I know that travel will be far less than usual, but there will still be some people on the road, depending on their situations, for errands and visits leading up to and including the holiday on Thursday, so it’s still an important forecast for moving about during these … Continue reading Monday November 23 2020 Forecast (8:27AM)<\/span>