DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30- FEBRUARY 3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before we get into talking about the upcoming storm, let’s talk about the cold that still has hold of us. Another day today of well below normal temperatures, but this time less wind, so it won’t feel as harsh as yesterday. We’ll also have nearly 100% sunshine, which is now just starting to be noticeably a bit higher in the sky during the day than it was in the darkest days of late November through early January. It’s subtle, but it’s there, now being light well into the 5:00 p.m. hour. If you’re an early riser you’ve noticed the same on the other end of the day – that morning twilight starting a little earlier. In fact, Boston experienced its first sunrise before 7:00 a.m. today, 1 minute before. While the sunsets there are just a few days away from reaching the 5:00 p.m. or later threshold, we will probably only see the sun go down one of the next 4 days – today. Tomorrow is about a 50\/50 shot and will depend on how quickly high cloudiness advance ahead of the coming storm, and how much they thicken up. But since they will be coming from the direction we’d be looking to see sunset, this is reducing our odds of seeing Sunday’s sunset. When we get to Monday we’ll be under a thickening blanket of altostratus clouds as our storm, a redevelopment of an Ohio Valley low, starts to make a northeastward movement to the south of New England. So definitely no sunset visible that day, nor will it be visible on Tuesday, the first day it occurs 5:00 p.m. or later at Boston, as we will still be under complete influence of that storm system, which will not be out of here until Wednesday, when we will actually visibly see our first post-5:00 p.m. sunset (at least in most of the region, pending any post-storm passing cloudiness). Hey, how did I get to Wednesday’s weather without talking in as much detail as I could about the storm? Don’t worry. I didn’t forget. I was just saving that until the last part of this discussion. You’re not getting snowfall amounts out of me yet, but you may start to see those in the comments section of the blog from me as we get deeper into the day and I get to look over another set of model guidance to get a better idea of how they are handling the evolution of this system. The energy for this system just came onshore on the West Coast yesterday, and it was with today’s 00z model guidance that we finally started to get better sampling for model initialization, and from here on in, in theory, the guidance should be performing the best it can under current reduced air travel circumstances. As always, the models are guidance, one set of tools in the meteorological process – one I hope leads me to a fairly accurate prognostication of upcoming events. And here is what I think so far, followed by a detailed forecast….<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Storm timing: Snow arrives south to north Monday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Storm peak (heaviest precipitation): Monday night to very early Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Snow amounts: No numbers yet, but highest chance for the most significant accumulation currently expected in the I-95 belt and\/or I-495 belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rain vs. snow: A rain\/snow line will probably be involved in this storm, most likely limiting snowfall near the coast especially southeastern MA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Coastal impact: While not extremely strong, some significant and persistent onshore wind from the northeast & east will probably result in minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding focused on the high tide in the early hours of Tuesday morning. A more northerly wind may cause minor flooding on north-facing shores for the Tuesday afternoon high tide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Duration of storm: While I’m leaning toward the heaviest precipitation being Monday night, it should be lighter and more spotty (still with a possible rain\/snow line involved) through Tuesday, but that does not mean some areas cannot see additional snow accumulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH morning, diminishing in the afternoon. Wind chill below 10 at times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Sunny start, variably cloudy finish. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 15-22. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving south to north during the afternoon at least into the I-90 belt, may be mixed with rain South Coast \/ Cape Cod. Highs 26-33 except 33-40 South Coast \/ Cape Cod. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, possibly heavy at times, with significant accumulation possible, except rain\/mix South Coast and possibly South Shore of MA. Temperatures steady 26-33 interior areas and North Shore of MA to NH Seacoast, steady or rising slightly 34-41 coastal areas to the south. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow northwest of Boston, snow\/mix\/rain Boston south. Temperatures generally steady 26–33 interior locations, NH Seacoast, and North Shore of MA and 34-41 coastal areas Boston southward. Wind E backing to N 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix\/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A shift in the large scale pattern as a plunge of arctic air enters the west central US and the East Coast moderates, meaning a milder trend for our area February 4-5. Next low pressure area travels well northwest of New England and its warm front \/ cold front combo brings a chance of some brief snow\/mix\/rain followed by rain showers sometime those two days. The February 6-8 period may see some additional unsettled weather with an active jet stream between very cold air to our northwest and milder air across the southeastern US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The cold air that moves into areas to our west and north will probably find its way to the Northeast with time, so expect colder weather for this period, probably starting out dry, but eventually ending up with a threat of unsettled weather by later in the period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30- FEBRUARY 3) Before we get into talking about the upcoming storm, let’s talk about the cold that still has hold of us. Another day today of well below normal temperatures, but this time less wind, so it won’t feel as harsh as yesterday. We’ll also have nearly 100% sunshine, which is … Continue reading Saturday January 30 2021 Forecast (8:38AM)<\/span>