DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 \u2013 JULY 2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The story will be the hot and humid weather for the first 3 days of this week, which are also the final 3 days of June. Please keep in mind as we get to the end of this month and you start hearing data via media for Boston, that the thermometer where official records are kept has been reading 2 degrees too high for the entire month, so the average will also be skewed by 2 degrees in that direction. It’ll be billed as the hottest June on record there, yet likely wasn’t. A warm June? Yes, most certainly. But we also had some cool days in there too. Bottom line: Not a brutal June, but a hot stretch early in the month and another hot stretch to end it. The Bermuda High will continue to do its thing into Wednesday and our only chance of seeing any rainfall before then will be from isolated air mass showers and thunderstorms that have a remote chance of popping up in a couple locations mainly well west of Boston today and a very slightly better chance of doing it tomorrow anywhere, but mostly west and north of a Boston-Providence line. These will be the vast exception and far from the rule, but if one does occur where you are, you can experience a torrential downpour along with briefly gusty wind and of course lightning and thunder, so if you are out and about, just know that even though quite low the chance, it’s not a 0% chance. On Wednesday, the shower and thunderstorm chance will increase, and the timing and placement of activity is going to be highly dependent on the location and movement of a cold front moving in from the northwest. It will take a couple days to nail down the timing and the day-of to start focusing on specific threats. Either way, Wednesday will still be a hot and humid day before any activity moves in. There’s been a difference of opinion between myself and much of the guidance for how the second half of this week plays out, but here are my current ideas on it. The cold front that approaches later Wednesday gets into southern New England by Thursday but starts to wash-out or fall apart and a second front drops down from the northwest later Thursday through early Friday. This brings the opportunity for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with still very warm and humid air in place, and as a little wave of low pressure moves along the front as it sits just to the south on Friday, some additional showers may occur, along with temperatures that will then be much cooler than they were for the first few days of the week. Before Friday is over, we may see a distinct dry-out and end to the shower threat from north to south. This has weekend implications, but we’ll get to that in the next sections. First, the details for the next 5…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very slight risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm well west of Boston. Highs 88-95. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point falling to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There’s been a disagreement between the guidance and myself about the weekend of July 3-4, with many runs painting a far more gloomy & doomy scenario than I believe we are going to see. Call it a meteorological hunch, but the performance of said guidance about 5 and 6 days out for the weekend we just had was less than stellar, with models foretelling of a front moving in with showers and thunderstorms, when in reality we saw the build-in of summer heat and humidity with no such shower & storm activity. This time, I feel that Canadian high pressure is still being under-forecast by the guidance in general, and that we’ll see a stronger push from it resulting in a generally dry Saturday-Sunday period, coolest Saturday with a northeasterly air flow, milder Sunday with more of variable wind evolving into a regional land breeze from the west as the high pressure area sinks to the south. Am I highly confident of this play-out? No, not yet. So please follow the updates through the week, because it’s entirely possible that the guidance can make my hunch look like a joke. Time will tell… Looking into early next week (July 5-7), expect the return of summer warmth and some humidity, along with the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms especially later in the period as a disturbance moves in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A “weaker” version of our current pattern tries to set-up with high pressure to the south, another high residing somewhere in eastern Canada, and a boundary between. It’s many days away but my general idea is that we’re on the warm\/muggy side of the boundary through mid period and then the boundary moves into or even south of the region again by late in the period. Once again plenty of time to evaluate the weather during this time, as it’s often harder to pick out distinctive medium range patterns in summer than it is during the other seasons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 \u2013 JULY 2) The story will be the hot and humid weather for the first 3 days of this week, which are also the final 3 days of June. Please keep in mind as we get to the end of this month and you start hearing data via media for Boston, … Continue reading Monday June 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)<\/span>