DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
West-to-east zonal flow will dominate our weather for the next several days. This will bring some quick changes to our region as nothing lingers for long. High pressure sitting over us early this morning has allowed a decent early morning of radiational cooling with many areas having fallen to the 20s. Coastal and urban temperatures are a little less cold, partly due to some lingering nighttime cloud cover and a little more wind in those locations. We’ll have a decent day today, but you’ll notice more clouds arriving as the day goes on, this in response to a warm front moving into and across the area. This front will not produce any precipitation for our area, however. We’ll be in the “warm sector” behind that front and ahead of an approaching cold front tonight and Thursday, with Thursday’s high temperatures soaring by November standards well into the 60s for most of the region – and not out of the question that a couple locations achieve a 70. The records for the date are above that and will remain as they are. Enjoy the warmth because it will not be hanging around. A strong cold front will move across the region Thursday night and early Friday, accompanied by a band of rain showers. As its parent low moves across southeastern Canada and strengthens, and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes from central Canada, we’ll find ourselves in a blustery, colder northwesterly air flow on Friday with temperatures having fallen to the 40s just behind the front, then pretty much sitting there during the day (may reach the lower 50s some areas). High pressure will move closer and winds will start to drop off gradually Friday night and then this high will move over the region giving us a very nice but chilly day Saturday. But as noted above, nothing will be hanging around, and the high will move offshore Sunday and an approaching warm front will bring more cloudiness to the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly clear with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind increasing to SW 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY: Sun\/cloudy mix. Chance of a passing rain and\/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thanksgiving Week, a big travel, shopping, and gathering time for many. Perhaps no other week during the year faces such weather focus. What’s going to happen here? My thoughts have not really changed on this. The warm front that I spoke of above (for Sunday) will have passed by and we’ll find ourselves with a mild and wet Monday ahead of a cold front which will bring rain showers. As this front passes through we’ll likely see low pressure form on it in response to a vigorous upper level disturbanace. Model guidance has been all over the place with details on timing\/movement of this feature with a wide variety of computer-predicted outcomes. No surprise there. My (and other forecaster’s) aim is to try to sort through it all and come up with the most likely scenario for our forecast. My having gone through that process yet again leads me to believe we’ll get colder air in fairly quickly behind that cold front but after the main precipitation is to our east. The low’s development will be rather rapid and it will likely intensify and do at least a partial and maybe complete cyclonic loop east and north of our region. The weather that results here would be unsettled, but not overly stormy in terms of heavy precipitation. It would be a blustery set up with rain and snow showers that could occur in the Tuesday to early Wednesday time frame. I still expect the system to have completed its tantrum and pulled off to the east enough so that we have calmer weather later Wednesday and for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. A weak low pressure system may approach and move into the region by Friday (Nov 26) with a minor precipitation threat (favoring rain over snow but either possible). I’ll continue to fine-tune this forecast as we go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pattern does look a little more active in this time frame with a couple rain and\/or snow threats from a more active Pacific jet stream. Similar to yesterday, a summary of the period would be precipitation near to above normal, but I’m not as sold on the colder side of the pattern right now so near to slightly above normal for overall temperatures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21) West-to-east zonal flow will dominate our weather for the next several days. This will bring some quick changes to our region as nothing lingers for long. High pressure sitting over us early this morning has allowed a decent early morning of radiational cooling with many areas having fallen to the 20s. … Continue reading Wednesday November 17 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)<\/span>