COMMENTARY<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s not often you get two of these in a row out of me, but I feel compelled to comment again here in the blog post (and not the comments section only) about what I said yesterday, and a couple other things. As we often see, many people (including some media members) nearly skip over a weather situation in the short term (in this case Monday), because it doesn’t have snow involved in it, and jump right to something beyond day 3 (in this case Wednesday, which is currently day 4) because they can use the “s” word. Fine if you want to talk about it, but if you are in media you better have your focus on the event sooner-to-come, especially since it may result in localized damage due to strong wind gusts. I’ve been disappointed by media that should know better already this weekend. I’ve seen an on-air snow map for a system that was 4 days away, with detail, and spoken about as if it was absolute. I’ve seen discussions putting emphasis on tools that just 24 hours before were declared unreliable. No, they don’t have to answer to me. I’m not their authority. I may be a meteorologist myself, but I am also a viewer, and they owe their viewers something a little better in my opinion. There’s a logical method to all of this. But we still have to jump to the exciting thing because it gets people listening, right?! I don’t agree with it, at least the way it’s done in today’s media world. I never have and I ever will. So on I go, my way as usual…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you were out and about last evening you may have seen a few flakes of snow or drops of rain. I drove through some of each between Milford and Woburn MA. This was the last gasp of a dissipating clipper system that prompted me to put the insignificant precipitation in last night’s forecast. With that out of the way, we enjoy a dry but somewhat chilly day today, but with a lack of wind out there it won’t really feel all that bad. But we have some changes on the way, so get ready to ride the weather roller coaster once again. The rest of this discussion will be very similar to yesterday’s. Today’s high pressure area will shift offshore tonight and we’ll come under the influence of a strong low pressure system passing to our north Monday. First, its warm front will produce some rain Monday morning (which may start as a brief mix of rain and frozen precipitation over the interior higher elevations in the pre-dawn hours of Monday). Right after that we’ll be in the warm sector of the system with a gusty southwesterly wind and lots of clouds, but a lack of rainfall, with the exception of the South Coast region which may experience some isolated but potentially strong showers and even thunderstorms, a few of which may produce locally damaging winds. The cold front trailing the low passing by to our north will charge across the region from west to east Monday evening, accompanied by rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm, along with gusty and shifting winds, followed by a sharp temperature drop after an unseasonably warm day. Tuesday’s weather will be dry but blustery and up to 25 or 30 degrees colder than Monday – a bit of a shock to the system. We then can turn our attention to the next low pressure system approaching, clearly set to take a track much further south than its predecessor, and with cold enough air in place here we’ll be talking about at least some frozen precipitation (yes, snow) for at least a portion of the region. With the track and strength of the low center still in question, it’s still too early to determine precipitation type and intensity for any specific location, but with it being day 4 at this point, I can say that odds continue to favor a mostly snow event for interior areas such as southwestern NH and central MA, with odds favoring more of a rain event for the South Coast, and some combination of liquid and frozen precipitation in between. I’ll bring this into better focus for tomorrow’s blog post, but for now just be ready for our first fairly widespread winter weather threat. Following that system, expect fair, chilly weather Thursday as low pressure moves away and high pressure moves in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight that may begin briefly as snow and\/or sleet interior higher elevations. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, SE 5-15 MPH overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast mid morning to early afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, frequent gusts 30-40 MPH and occasional gusts above 40 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a passing rain shower and potential downpour with possible thunder and\/or small hail west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH and potentially higher in any convective activity, shifting to NW from west to east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow\/mix likely southern NH and interior MA, snow\/mix\/rain elsewhere with rain favoring the South Coast region. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with precipitation tapering off. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The active weather pattern continues but model guidance remains unreliable. Watching for a weak low pressure area to bring a minor precipitation threat December 10. Another period of unsettled weather may occur in the December 12-14 window, with odds favoring a milder system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to another winter precipitation chance or two. This is a very low confidence outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
COMMENTARY It’s not often you get two of these in a row out of me, but I feel compelled to comment again here in the blog post (and not the comments section only) about what I said yesterday, and a couple other things. As we often see, many people (including some media members) nearly skip … Continue reading December 5 2021 Forecast (8:48AM)<\/span>