DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod and the MA South Shore, with a brief tapering break, then a return to activity that then shifted more to the north to include Boston and Cape Ann as well, and heading southwestward into southern portions of central MA at times as well. I’ve even seen occasional flakes here in Woburn which is about 10 to 12 miles northwest of Boston, being right on the edge of the northernmost band at times. Snowfall accumulations with events like this are often very difficult to get exactly right, due to the sometimes narrow heavier bands that can shift back and forth, or remain in place, depending on the exact location of little convergence zones and overall wind direction at any given time. These snowfalls often present in very high snow to water ratios, as previously mentioned by a fellow meteorologist on the blog yesterday (20:1 ratios can be very common and even sometimes they can go much higher than that). It doesn’t take much moisture to pile up a few inches of pure feather fluff snow. This is very easy to clean, but it can make the roads slippery if there is partial melting and refreezing due to previous road treatment but also very cold air in place, or a quick covering of snow is then packed down by vehicular traffic. Some may wonder why an onshore wind off an ocean that is quite mild (40+ degrees) would create such fluffy snow. Well the quick answer is that the air heading from eastern Canada and Maine into and across those waters was very cold, in some cases below zero, so yes, it does modify, but maybe only to the teens and 20s by the time it’s crossed the water enroute to the shore, picking up enough moisture to deposit the fluff in the still very cold air, even after it’s been modified. I mentioned that this set up is less common to see here because our “average” weather does not create this set up of northeast winds for very long periods of time to create the ocean effect snow, in contrast to a place like Buffalo, where they average colder than we do anyway and also tend to see more persistent winds from the west, giving them more opportunity for lake effect events. Of course if you take the entire Great Lakes into account, you’re talking about a huge sample size compared to our very small area of coast, so it pretty much becomes an irrelevant comparison at that point – but you get the idea by keeping it in the proper perspective. \ud83d\ude42 So how about the rest of the weather for this weekend and early next week? Well, we are being missed by a storm to the south today, as became clear would likely happen during the past few days. And we’ll have more cold but generally dry weather for Sunday and Monday as weak high pressure dominates our weather, although some upper level energy passing through will bring some varying amounts of cloudiness during Sunday before we end up with more sun Monday. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, it gets a little more complex. We’re going to be in a set-up that guidance can mess up royally even just a couple days out. Tuesday a wave of low pressure passes to our north, a warm front passing by in the morning with no more than clouds and maybe some spotty snowfall. We “warm up” in a relative sense that day, pushing 40 or so, and then a cold front swings by later. It would likely be mild enough for a rain shower with this but I’m not even sure there will be enough moisture to produce anything, and then we chill-down behind that front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is going to be more energy back to our southwest so we have to watch for a wave of low pressure to form, just in case it’s a little more of something than guidance currently indicates. If this is the case, Wednesday could end up messy with overrunning precipitation, probably of the frozen variety, or it could all end up happening too far to the south and we stay mainly dry and chilly. This will be the puzzle I’ll be trying to solve over the next few days. For now, for forecast purposes, I’ll lean dry but add the chance of some snow\/mix for southern areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Lots of clouds northeastern through south central MA southward with occasional snow showers, but more persistent snow shower bands especially near and south of Boston where up to a few additional inches of snow are possible. More sun to the northwest. Highs 17-24, but 25-30 Cape Cod \/ Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind W up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 Wind W up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 20-27. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Maybe a rain shower late. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix\/snow southern areas. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The overall pattern remains colder than normal. Watching for two potential low pressure impacts around January 28-29 and again about January 30-31. Too soon for any speculation on details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The beginning of a pattern change. Trending milder, some unsettled weather during the transition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26) The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod … Continue reading Saturday January 22 2022 Forecast (11:10AM)<\/span>