DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days to come it seems. Today, a warm front went through overnight and early this morning, and a cold front will be coming along in short order – late morning and midday. Until around noon or so we run the chance for rain showers across the WHW forecast area. Ironically behind the cold front is when we’ll actually warm up as we combine a drying west to northwest wind, down sloping off hills \/ mountains, with higher April sun angle as the sky clears out. But tonight somewhat cooler air will be more felt, especially as a brisk breeze continues to blow. Wednesday, we’ll already see increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, as its warm front approaches. This system is to be more complex than the one passing now. The parent low pressure area will be maturing and it will already be a redevelopment of this system that moves through the Great Lakes and stacks up with an upper low between there and Hudson Bay in Canada. When this happens we usually see an arcing frontal system way out ahead of the parent low, in occlusion mode, and that’s what we will see moving into our region. Will the warm front make it into southern New England? Yes, most likely. Will it make it all the way across the WHW forecast area? Probably not. I figure a cut-off zone somewhere around the MA South Shore to perhaps northern Worcester County of MA or southwestern NH Thursday, with a resultant big temperature contrast from northeast to southwest across the region, as well as a lot of clouds, some drizzle possible on the cool side of the boundary where wind will be coming off the Atlantic, and then an increasing chance of rain showers west to east later in the day and at night as the then occluding frontal system (cold front catching up to warm front) moves in and passes through. A weak wave of low pressure that forms on that front as it slowly goes by may delay our improvement on Friday, but it will eventually turn out to be a nice day as we get into a drying westerly air flow, especially during the afternoon, just in time for opening day at Fenway Park. While we have that nicer weather, the original low pressure system that causes the Thursday’s conglomeration will still be over interior southeastern Canada, but far enough away not to bother us with any unsettled weather. This system will still have an impact on the start of our weekend, however, as it the entire circulation will help spawn another disturbance that will drag its cold front into our region by later Saturday, with the chance for rain showers. While timing on this is iffy, we should be able to get through at least part of Saturday without that threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers especially late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Step 2 is to try to make a little more sense of this 5-day period, and right now it looks like the front that goes by later Saturday will set us up for a dry, breezy, and cool Sunday April 17, which is Easter for those celebrating. Next day, April 18, Patriots Day, Marathon Monday, morning first-pitch Sox game, is a traditionally busy New England day with weather always under a microscope. At that time I believe we’ll see dry weather to start, but it may not stay that way until day’s end. It also looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of normal for temperatures, and I wonder if by nighttime we even see some interior higher elevation snowfall with the precipitation that threatens with the arrival and passage of low pressure. Many details to iron out on this. Leaning toward drier weather for the middle and end of this period, but may have to watch for a quick disturbance \/ frontal system April 20-21 with briefly unsettled weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Step 3 is to be cautious on the outlook this far in advance given questionable model guidance and just the time of year in general – volatile spring in the Northeast. Still leaning toward the upper level west to east (zonal flow) pattern but with the tendency for us to be on the cooler side. However, warmer air will reside not far away leaning any temperatures forecast vulnerable this far in advance. Being near the battle zone leaves me more confident we’ll endure a couple periods of unsettled weather.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16) Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days … Continue reading Tuesday April 12 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)<\/span>