DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The big picture: Only 2 unsettled days out of the next 5 (maybe more), and introducing more heat into the mix means the drought likely expands more quickly in the days ahead, even with a couple threats of heavy downpours. The day-to-day picture: Today will generally be a great summer day, although patchy clouds are in some areas early and mostly-fair-weather clouds will pop up during the day, but we won’t have that sun-filtering high cloud shield today. Humidity will be on the rise, but not rapidly, although those sensitive will notice it. Like yesterday, there is the tiniest chance regionwide of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm from a couple of the developing cumulus clouds today, but in general this is a fair weather day for our region, extending through tonight as well. Monday is the first of the two aforementioned unsettled days, as a low pressure disturbance will be moving eastward across the Northeast. We first see a round of showers with a warm front during midday and part of the afternoon, followed by a batch of showers and thunderstorms with the system’s cold front in the evening. Initially, some of our guidance painted this as a widespread moderate to heavy rain event lasting many hours, but as you have been cautioned, this is often the type of system that is over-forecast by guidance, and when it gets here, it ends up being a shorter-duration rain event, as you see in this case, with just a couple rounds of showers and storms, but the threat of some downpours with heavy rainfall. But “heavy rain” does not really mean beneficial rain, and in this case any drought relief brought by this system will be quite limited. It’s short-duration, and will be followed by two dry and rather warm to hot days Tuesday and Wednesday. Unlike many previous events, we don’t get a push of cooler\/dry air from Canada behind the disturbance, but our air will come from a hotter source region in the middle of the US, so we’ll feel the heat of July coming on into the region. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s weather is expected to be rain-free regionwide. Thursday, our heat stays with us and humidity spikes back up ahead of a cold front, which brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms again. The coverage, intensity, and timing of this activity is yet to be determined, and will depend on specifics which I can nail down over the next few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Partly sunny early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers likely midday through mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Muggy – dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s.Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W, but winds can be variable and gusty near any storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 84-91. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Less humid, rain-free but still very warm to hot weather July 22-23 as high pressure dominates. Shower and thunderstorm threat increases July 24 to early July 25 as a trough and frontal system move across the region before slightly drier but still very warm weather dominates the end of the period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
July should come down its home stretch in a pattern that transitions from warm to hot and humid with a shower and thunderstorm threat early in the period to drier but warm weather with high pressure dominating later in the period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21) The big picture: Only 2 unsettled days out of the next 5 (maybe more), and introducing more heat into the mix means the drought likely expands more quickly in the days ahead, even with a couple threats of heavy downpours. The day-to-day picture: Today will generally be a great summer day, … Continue reading Sunday July 17 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)<\/span>