DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our focus today will be on the thunderstorm chance for the region. Even as I write this update in the 7:00 a.m. hour the short range guidance differs on timing and even coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the area today. Based on this, and knowing the fickle nature of convection anyway, my idea is to forecast isolated showers\/storms for the first part of the afternoon anywhere north and west of Boston, and then one or two line-segments or clusters of storms any time from late afternoon through early evening, with the heaviest favoring being in central to northeastern MA and southern NH. We’ll have to watch how far any initial batch can perpetuate itself into areas further south and east as it may have to rely on an outflow boundary and no other focus other than the pre-frontal trough that helps initiate it. Some of the short range guidance develops additional showers and storms in the early to mid evening hours especially along to south of I-90, and some of this could survive toward the South Coast later in the evening. We’ll just have to watch how things evolve and kick into now-cast mode when needed. As a side note, I’ll be in southwestern MA much of today and will try to monitor from there as best I can – though I may have limited access. Thunderstorms have the capability to be severe today, so if you do have outdoor plans or will be traveling, please keep this in mind. Main threat is damaging wind, with hail being a lesser threat. Any storm can produce torrential rain which can drop visibility very low and cause quick flooding, and lightning as well which are always dangers whether a storm is deemed severe or not. Activity settles down by later tonight and the frontal boundary glides through the region under cover of darkness, exiting via the South Coast early Saturday. While the frontal boundary won’t sit all that far to our south this upcoming weekend, it looks like it won’t really have the ability to generate any further activity that would impact our region, so it looks like a fair weather weekend, governed by high pressure that will first be bridged across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday, with a north to east wind in our region, and then slide its way to our east bringing a southeasterly air flow to us on Sunday. This will turn more southerly Monday as the high drifts to the south and we warm up most efficiently at that time. One more bout of heat may be ours for Tuesday as the high drifts down into the favored location off the Atlantic Coast to deliver that to us. Wildcard for Tuesday: How fast does the next front approach. If it’s quick, we have the thunderstorm chance later in the day, if not, it’s just a fair but very warm to hot day. I’ll look more at that in the coming few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Isolated showers\/thunderstorms early afternoon mainly southwestern NH and central MA, then showers\/thunderstorms more likely in one or two waves favoring central to northeastern MA and southern NH mid afternoon to early evening with a few storms probably into northeastern CT and northern RI to interior southeastern MA by then. Any storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. Highs 83-90, cooler in some South Coast locations. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any thunderstorms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evening, favoring the I-90 region southward. Patchy fog developing. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 \u2013 SEPTEMBER 4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With uncertain timing of the next frontal boundary impacting the region will include the chance of showers\/thunderstorms for August 31 with high humidity. Cooling\/drying to start September as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure follows it, then later in the period shifts to the south allowing the region to warm up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No change from yesterday’s idea. There\u2019s a little uncertainty in the pattern as some tropical activity from the western Pacific may have a hand in altering the pattern currently shown on medium range guidance. For now, calling for a mainly dry weather pattern with some up and down temperatures and only briefly unsettled weather at some point during the period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30) Our focus today will be on the thunderstorm chance for the region. Even as I write this update in the 7:00 a.m. hour the short range guidance differs on timing and even coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the area today. Based on this, and knowing the fickle nature of convection … Continue reading Friday August 26 2022 Forecast (8:14AM)<\/span>