First, Fiona. I mention this storm before getting to our sensible weather because firstly, its impact on our region in the form of high swells and rough surf will peak today, tonight, and early Saturday, so anybody with plans to be at the shore or in the coastal waters should take note of this. Also, Fiona remains a powerful hurricane, and while it will be weakening gradually and making its transition to post-tropical while motoring toward southeastern Canada, it’s going to strike that region as a very powerful storm. In fact, the transition to post-tropical only helps the wind field expand, even if the overall intensity is coming down. It’s starting at such a high intensity with not much time to go before arriving there, that it will only weaken so much, down to that of about a category 3 hurricane. While Fiona will not be a tremendous rain producer due to its rapid movement, it will be a wind machine and still produce considerable coastal storm surge. Eastern Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and western Newfoundland will be most impacted. Later in the storm’s life, it may produce some snow further north! Back here at home we’re now into our coolest air mass in quite a while, and obviously the coolest air mass of meteorological fall and definitely astronomical fall, which just started hours ago (last evening). Both today and Saturday will feature sun but a share of passing clouds too, especially today, below normal temperatures, and a gusty wind, though the wind should settle down a little bit tonight as the air becomes less mixed and may not be as gusty Saturday as it ends up today. The Canadian high pressure area delivering this air to us will sink to the south and allow us to warm up a little bit Sunday after a chilly start. While I still expect Sunday to be largely rain-free, I do expect clouds to become dominant before the day is over in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure, which will bring us unsettled weather early next week – though not looking like a significant rain producer at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts to near and even over 30 MPH at times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 \u2013 OCTOBER 2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the moment I am keeping my outlook of mainly dry weather, a shot of chilly air to start, followed by a moderating trend in temperature later in the period. Wildcard: What goes on in the tropics and how it translates to any possible direct or indirect impact as early as the first days of October. It’s first important to note that medium range guidance is to be taken only as a rough idea, especially when there is no actual low center to initialize on the guidance, and for our newly formed tropical depression in the southern Caribbean, this is just going to start to be the case as of today. Previous runs, including the last set with no low to initialize, still show considerable spread in solutions regarding the eventual hurricane’s impact on the US. These variations can still be present as well after a low forms, but you have a better chance of a better-performing model having a better solution for the system in question. Applying meteorology might then help you decide which piece(s) if guidance show a more realistic possible outcome. So one step forward today with a low center, but still take the guidance lightly if scrutinizing each run. Watch for trends rather than scrutinizing details beyond a few forecast panels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
High degree of uncertainty again for this forecast period given the unknown outcome of a tropical cyclone that itself, or the remains of, may eventually impact our region. Whatever happens, we may see quite a shot of chilly air again behind any departing system as the overall pattern may very well favor this again. Long way to go to refine and detail this outlook…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
First, Fiona. I mention this storm before getting to our sensible weather because firstly, its impact on our region in the form of high swells and rough surf will peak today, tonight, and early Saturday, so anybody with plans to be at the shore or in the coastal waters should take note of this. Also, … Continue reading Friday September 23 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)<\/span>