Our weather for the first weekend of autumn will be rather nice overall, but we’ll start it with a little bit of wind chill. While the wind did drop off a bit in some areas overnight, the breeze remained in most, and the rising sun is quickly mixing the air so the gusty breeze is occurring in all areas by mid morning, and coming off low temperature in the 40s, we have wind chills down in the 30s. We’d laugh at this in winter, but when you’re under 48 hours after the end of summer, you’re not quite used to this kind of thing yet. I needed a winter hat late last night for a visit to the sea wall for high tide. First time I have used a winter hat in September that I can recall. Our gusty and cool weather will continue today but under lots of bright sun, so if you have outdoor activities sensitive to wind gusts (yard sale, etc.), keep this in mind! A warm front approaching Sunday will send more clouds in, but despite some guidance indicating rainfall before the end of the day, I am not convinced this happens. There will be a lot of dry air in the atmosphere in the wake of the very large Fiona, now a post-tropical powerhouse moving through southeastern Canada. And while that storm did not directly impact our region, the expanse of dry air around \/ behind it, is quite large. It will take some time to scour this out, but this upcoming system does have some pretty unstable air with it and it will eventually do so, so that clouds do win out by sometime Sunday night, along with scattered showers and even some thunderstorms in the overnight \/ early morning hours of Monday. A few of these storms may even be rather potent for this time of year. But despite the instability, the broad trough and low pressure area coming in to start off the week is going to pull in a lot of dry air as well, and despite Monday being an unsettled day with the opportunity for showers, there should also be some sunshine. I was a little more pessimistic feeling about the weather going into Tuesday previously, but today I’m a little less so. While still having a trough nearby, it looks like a main frontal boundary will lie to our south, and another trough to our north and while this is a thread-the-needle forecast for day 4 I feel we have the chance to be in between unsettled areas with dry weather here Tuesday, and a weakened version of the same for Wednesday, with dry weather, just a sun\/cloud mix. Confidence is not super-high on those 2 days so don’t lock anything in yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 \u2013 OCTOBER 3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Previously I mentioned a shot of chilly air for the final days of September. I still think we get the cooler air, but because of the orientation of the pattern, the delivery doesn’t blast in here, but rather eases in, so that we get fair weather and cooler air for the last couple days of the month as high pressure builds in from Canada. And then October arrives with uncertainty in the outlook. We’ll be watching Ian, a newly formed tropical storm in the southern Caribbean, which we are pretty sure will become a hurricane and turn to the north impacting western Cuba and threatening an area from the central Gulf of Mexico to the US Southeast, with Florida about mid point in that area. Until we can nail down the track, we won’t really be able to say with any confidence what, if any, its future impact would be on our area. Today’s medium range guidance shows anything from remnant rains from a system that travelled long over land before reaching the Northeast to a stronger version of the storm having crossed Florida and come at least part way up the East Coast. Either of this is possible, but they are not the only possibilities. We could, for example, have a scenario where the remains of the system never get here, turning east and being pushed out to sea but a Canadian high. So there is now “Ian is going to….” with regard to New England impacts down the road. Just know that in the first few days of October we may potentially hear from some form of it – or we may not. Obviously, this part of the forecast will be adjusted accordingly with time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you have a high degree of uncertainty in the period preceding days 11-15, you are not going to have a whole lot more confidence on the 11-15 day period itself, because a lot of what happens hinges on what happens before. What I can say is that we leave the first part of this period open to influences from some form of Ian’s remains, in a slower-moving scenario. I do think the pattern will support one and possibly 2 shots of chilly air from Canada as well. How it all fits together remains to be seen. Stay tuned…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Our weather for the first weekend of autumn will be rather nice overall, but we’ll start it with a little bit of wind chill. While the wind did drop off a bit in some areas overnight, the breeze remained in most, and the rising sun is quickly mixing the air so the gusty breeze is … Continue reading Saturday September 24 2022 Forecast (8:29AM)<\/span>