COMMENTARY<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A reminder that a lot of guidance shifting is not unusual during transitional patterns. It’s something that a seasoned meteorologist is used to, and while it can be frustrating from the perspective of using the guidance as a tool, it’s also part of the experience of this science and can be used as a learning opportunity about patterns and about how current versions of various models handle things and display biases and shortcomings. Again I hate to continue to bring up non-meteorologist weather pages on social media, but they’ve made it very difficult to communicate properly during the last few weeks, and I hope when we do see such things or get asked about them, we are letting our friends know to take not of the difference between these pages that exist for hype, clicks, shares, etc., and the blogs and pages that exist with the aim of communicating the information properly. We cannot afford to lose the latter, along with our professionals in the field<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a different note, a reminder that I have posted the winter forecast and created snow contest pages for this coming winter. Each can be found in the menu at the top of the main blog page! The winter forecast was also posted as a regular blog post, like the daily forecast update, so there are two places to access it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are several weather systems to keep track of as we finish the weekend and head to Thanksgiving. Your Sunday will feature the return of some cloudiness and eventually a rain or snow shower opportunity as a weak clipper low pressure area dives southeastward via the Upper Great Lakes, crossing our region this evening. It’s a minor system – no significant impact is expected from any light precipitation that falls. However, if it precipitates hard enough to wet the ground and it can’t dry quickly enough, some icy patches can form overnight and early Monday as the sky clears out and temperatures fall below the freezing point in some areas. During the day Monday expect a sun\/cloud mix but dry weather as an area of high pressure moves across the region. This high will then shift off to the northeast by Tuesday. During this time, low pressure enters the Great Lakes and its extending warm front will increase the cloudiness in our region and lead to a period of rain Tuesday night to very early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, this area of rainfall moves off to the northeast but low level moisture means lots of clouds, areas of fog, and perhaps an additional passing rain shower. A more organized line of showers is expected to cross the region with a cold front Wednesday evening as the parent low exits the Great Lakes and moves across southeastern Canada. This sets us up for for a blustery, cool (but not too cold), and dry Thanksgiving Day with sun and passing clouds. I do expect dry conditions for morning road races and the many traditional high school football games that take place, but fields that are natural grass may still be wet from recent rainfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Scattered snow and rain showers mid afternoon on. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a rain or snow shower possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun\/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 \u2013 DECEMBER 2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A colder west to northwest air flow from the day after Thanksgiving – aka Black Friday – and Saturday November 29 – aka my daughter’s birthday. \ud83d\ude09 I’m looking for mainly dry weather but a disturbance moving through can cause a few snow flurries on Saturday. Another small low pressure area approaches on the final day of November and may bring some light snow\/mix\/rain for parts of the region. There are indications of a quick building ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US that would provide a warmer spike of air to arrive a just in time for the start of December, but a frontal boundary can be nearby as soon as December 2 introducing the chance of some wet weather. Confidence is low on this part of the forecast as there are a lot of variables to consider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The front that brings Wednesday\u2019s showers should clear the coast and be offshore pre-dawn Thanksgiving, which looks dry with a sun\/cloud mix and high temps in the 45-55 range regionwide along with a moderate westerly breeze. We then experience a dry stretch with a colder trend Friday 11\/28 and Saturday 11\/29 \u2013 maybe a passing snow flurry from a disturbance moving through at some point but no issues for travel. High pressure slides to our south to end November and start December with fair weather and a milder trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Storm track into Great Lakes – up and down temperature pattern with a couple episodes of unsettled weather. A lot more refinining and detailing will be needed!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
COMMENTARY A reminder that a lot of guidance shifting is not unusual during transitional patterns. It’s something that a seasoned meteorologist is used to, and while it can be frustrating from the perspective of using the guidance as a tool, it’s also part of the experience of this science and can be used as a … Continue reading Sunday November 23 2025 Forecast (7:42AM)<\/span>