10:15AM<\/p>\n
I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible meteorology had steered me (and most of us) to conclude. As is usual, I tried to hold back on numbers until at most 48 hours out from what I considered to be the start of the event later today (hence first numbers posted late Thursday). These numbers are going to end up too high. I made one adjustment yesterday when reliable guidance and other signs were suggesting the new storm would be weaker and a bit further offshore. And as those trends continued to the point it’s now apparent that we’ll be dealing with a much weaker system, there will be further adjustment. That said, it’s not like I’m expecting a few snow flurries. It still is going to snow this weekend in a good portion of southeastern New England, and this snow may linger for quite a few hours into Sunday night as an elongated upper level disturbance traverses the region.<\/p>\n
Beyond this, we will still see a tranquil break to start the new week on Monday into Tuesday, followed by a long stretch of unsettled weather. This appears to want to evolve as a very large scale and complex upper level trough or closed off low pressure area, and a series of surface disturbances resulting. Lots of puzzle pieces sitting out there with set up of large and smaller scale systems, temperature profiles, etc. – so the approach here will be to come at it carefully and not try to tell too much too soon. I’ll make a first decent stab at this in\u00a0 Sunday night’s “The Week Ahead” post. For now, forecast wording beyond Monday will be very generalized.<\/p>\n
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…<\/p>\n
TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain and snow (snow mainly interior MA and southern NH). Highs around 40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain coast and south of Boston, mix\/snow elsewhere. Little snow accumulation. Lows 30-36. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY: Overcast. Steadier precipitation mainly rain\/mix South Coast of RI & MA including Cape Cod & Islands, mix to snow interior RI and southeastern MA, snow elsewhere, continuing into the evening before eventually tapering off. Snow accumulations by the end of the event at night: Nothing to coatings closer to the South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, building to 1-3 inches interior RI & southeastern MA and just inland from the coast from Boston north, 3-5 inches further northwest especially north of the Mass Pike and along and outside Route 495, with isolated 6 inch amounts still possible in higher elevations. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N up to 20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH coast.<\/p>\n
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.<\/p>\n
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.<\/p>\n
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 36. High 44.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 40.<\/p>\n
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow\/mix. Low 29. High 37.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
10:15AM I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible … Continue reading Saturday Morning Update<\/span>