9:05PM<\/p>\n
7:30AM update to adjust snow (again)<\/p>\n
This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. Climate says that these 2 times of year are not the same, and storms act differently on a local scale in response to the variance in climate from one time of winter to another. This was a major factor in my analysis going into the forecast for this prolonged late winter storm, and based on it, I’m not making any great changes to the overall thinking from the last update. The snowfall tweaks will come from the fact that I expect the heaviest precipitation to be confined to areas mostly south of Boston. The limiting factor of daylight will play in still, keeping snow amounts down, since a significant amount of the measurable precipitation will occur during the daylight hours of Thursday. Come Thursday night, most of the visible accumulation will occur. Moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north will occur, especially in coastal areas, but without an accumulation of heavy, wet snow in these areas, power outages will be limited. High tides Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday morning will be the most significant in terms of flooding, though mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected. The most significant flooding is likely to occur in the Sandwich MA area on the Friday morning high tide. All of this will be taking place due to a storm with a very large circulation moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast, passing south of New England. It will be with us through Friday. Snowfall amounts through Friday: 0-2 Cape Cod & Islands up along the eastern MA shore to eastern Cape Ann, 2-6 elsewhere except 6-9 in the higher elevations mainly from southern Worcester County MA into northern RI. A few of the higher elevations further north in Worcester County to southwestern NH may see 5+ depending on how steady the snow is on Thursday night through early Friday. It’s important to note that these are snow totals but there will probably never be that much on the ground from this storm at any given location, due to melting during the storm.<\/p>\n
After this is all done, a more quiet pattern will set it. A more in depth discussion of the weekend and early next week will follow on the next blog entry.<\/p>\n
Forecast for southeastern New England…<\/p>\n
TONIGHT & THURSDAY… Overcast with periods of snow, except rain\/mix toward Cape Cod. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, some stronger gusts Cape Cod & Islands.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY… Overcast with snow and some mix, heaviest south and southwest of Boston, tapering off as more of a mix during the day Friday. For total accumulations see above. Temperatures cooling middle to lower 30s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.<\/p>\n
SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 28. High 46.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 33. High 49.<\/p>\n
MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 37. High 46.<\/p>\n
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 50.<\/p>\n
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 41.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
9:05PM 7:30AM update to adjust snow (again) This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when … Continue reading Simply Complex<\/span>