7:05PM<\/p>\n
This is it. A simple forecast without scientific explanations of why I think the winter is going to turn out the way I am about to describe. We can get into that type of discussion in the comments section below if anybody desires to do that.<\/p>\n
Last year, I forecast it to be chilly and dry to start the winter, and stormy\/snowy the 2nd part of the winter. I didn’t quite get the first part right. It wasn’t overly stormy, but it was mild, so temperatures were under-forecast. The second half of the winter panned out pretty well.<\/p>\n
So, what’s coming this season? November can often be a sign of the pattern for at least the first half of the winter, and taking that into account along with the current and predicted states of the important atmospheric and oceanic parameters, I think what you see is what you get from now into if not through January. It’s a dry pattern, and I see that continuing. Temperatures will fluctuate but average below normal in the longer term. Most of our precipitation events will come in the form of rain showers at the end of brief mild spells when northern jet stream storm systems pass north of the region. Secondary cold fronts may produce snow showers and squalls from time to time. If a clipper type storm rides a little further to the south with cold air in place, that is when we will see most of our snowfall events, and they would be on the lighter side in general. The southern jet stream will be quieter than average, and when storms do get going down to the south, they stand a better than even chance of grazing the region or moving offshore and staying too far away to have major impact.<\/p>\n
The second half of the winter will likely\u00a0 have longer mild spells, but more significant blasts of cold air, balancing the overall temperatures out to near normal. With less certainty I say that we continue the drier than normal pattern, but with more activity than the first half of the winter resulting in a few chances for significant precipitation events. Most of the accumulating snow in southern New England will probably occur during February and the first half of March before dropping off as we head toward the start of Spring.<\/p>\n
Summary…<\/p>\n
Precipitation: Below normal.<\/p>\n
Snow: Near to below normal (25-35 inches Cape Cod and South Coast, 30-40 inches for Boston area, 40-55 inches elsewhere with highest amounts interior eastern MA and southern NH).<\/p>\n
Temperature: Below normal.<\/p>\n
Month-by-Month…<\/p>\n
December: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow below normal.<\/p>\n
January: Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow near to below normal.<\/p>\n
February: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation near to below normal. Snow near normal.<\/p>\n
March: Temperature near normal. Precipitation near normal. Snow near to below normal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
7:05PM This is it. A simple forecast without scientific explanations of why I think the winter is going to turn out the way I am about to describe. We can get into that type of discussion in the comments section below if anybody desires to do that. Last year, I forecast it to be chilly … Continue reading Winter Forecast 2013-2014<\/span>