9:30PM<\/p>\n
I could whine. I could be cranky. I could make up an excuse for a bad forecast. But I will do neither of those. It was a bad forecast. I don’t care if it was a bad forecast by everybody. It was a bad forecast by me. So how did I know that it may snow significantly enough to plow\/shovel today about 5 days in advance but somehow not forecast it the day before? Easy answer. When you’re 5 days away from a potential event, it’s easy to talk about what you think may happen. You have time to refine it, adjust the forecast a little at a time so it doesn’t look like a drastic change. You don’t need to worry. You have nothing but time. About 5 days ago I was reviewing guidance and applying what I know about meteorology to it, and came up with the idea that there would be a snow threat for Saturday. But somewhere between then and Friday, I lost hold of that idea, and believed I had a better idea that the threat that once looked somewhat significant had dwindled to an insignificant disturbance with rain and some snow, but not significant snow. But even last night there were hints that this system may turn out a little more significant after all. I didn’t really bite on it. I kept it in the back of my mind and gave more weight to the higher confidence forecast I made just hours before. We now know how well that worked out. Snowfall amounts Saturday ranged from nothing along the South Shore and through Cape Cod to an inch or so along the coast of the North Shore but rapidly building up to 2-4 inches just inland and 4-8 inches from near I-95 northward from Route 2 into southern NH. Amounts dropped off southwest of Boston but several inches still fell in some of the hilly areas. That was the result. Mother Nature got me good on that one. And speaking of Moms, the irony is that last week in chatting with mine I decided to take care of some outside stuff that may have waited until this weekend, because I had a feeling some snow would be on the ground by\u00a0 Saturday\/Sunday. Had a feeling? Where’s the science in that? I had it right on a hunch a week in advance, but had it wrong on applied meteorology less than 24 hours out from the event. Sometimes the weather fools you, despite your best application of your knowledge acquired in your years of college and all of your years of experience since. Today, a humble reminder that you can never make a perfect forecast, you’ll make some really bad ones, and you can only do your best.<\/p>\n
Well now it’s time to move on, and in having taken up much of your reading time already, I’ll keep this part short and simple. We’re heading back into the cold pattern. The uncertainty will be snow threats, but for now I’m going to lean toward the drier side of things and just keep an eye on disturbances rotating around the large scale upper level low pressure area that will be dominating eastern Canada and the northeastern US in the days ahead. Our Saturday storm is on its way out, and a dying disturbance will deliver clouds and a little snow for the first half of Sunday before some clearing follows. An Arctic cold front will knife through the region Monday and may produce a few snow showers and squalls. The deep freeze arrives Tuesday and lasts a while, and as stated above there is uncertainty on snow threats, but for now the most likely day for one seems like it would be Thursday.<\/p>\n
One more significant warning before moving to the forecast details. Please use caution if out walking or driving tonight and Sunday morning as below freezing temperatures will create icy areas on untreated surfaces where snow has been removed by the ground was wet, or the ground is still wet from rain that fell further to the southeast of Boston.<\/p>\n
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…<\/p>\n
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow tapering off. Little additional accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch this morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Highs 30-35 by midday then falling through the 20s by later in the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.<\/p>\n
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 17.<\/p>\n
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 2. High 16.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.<\/p>\n
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 28.<\/p>\n
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 32.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
9:30PM I could whine. I could be cranky. I could make up an excuse for a bad forecast. But I will do neither of those. It was a bad forecast. I don’t care if it was a bad forecast by everybody. It was a bad forecast by me. So how did I know that it … Continue reading Oh, Snow Is Me!<\/span>