1:03PM<\/p>\n
Since I may post a few extra blog entries during the next few days, The Week Ahead post that appears every Sunday evening (usually) will be a touch early, since we have a very significant storm coming.<\/p>\n
COMMENTARY…
\nI’ll keep this short and sweet. We all know the problems with so many sources of information and the whole media hype thing. You probably don’t need me to remind you what to ignore out there, just make sure you don’t get sucked into the hype vortex that will be spinning a lot faster than the winds of the upcoming storm. Model output of snowfall amounts on air: useless. Comparisons to the Great Blizzard of 1978: useless. If you want to compare the upcoming storm to anything, use one that it will somewhat resemble and will be fairly fresh in your memory unless you were not here. That would be February 2013. A carbon copy? No. But very similar set up and likely result.<\/p>\n
SUMMARY…
\nLet’s break this down in segments.
\nToday (Sunday)… Arctic cold front passing by at midday has been producing some snow showers from southern NH to northeastern MA and a stray flurry may still visit the Boston area through early afternoon, otherwise just sun and passing clouds and a gusty wind today as colder air arrives. You’ll feel it later today and tonight.
\nMonday… Setting up the storm. High pressure builds to the north of New England across southeastern Canada and sets up a north to northeast wind, delivering plenty of cold air. A fairly small storm dropping southeastward from the Midwest through the Mid Atlantic will ignite a new storm offshore, south of New England.
\nMonday night through Tuesday night… The storm. Explosive development of low pressure and a rapid maturing of the system, tracking northward and likely doing a small loop just south or southeast of New England. That, with a high to the north, as the classic set up for the big snowstorm. There may be some ocean-effect snow showers that sneak into eastern coastal areas of MA and NH ahead of the storm’s precipitation during Monday afternoon, but expect the snow from the storm itself to overspread the region from south southeast to north northwest during Monday evening and night, continuing Tuesday, then pulling away from west southwest to east northeast later Tuesday night as the storm center completes its little loop and starts to move away and weaken. Its maximum intensity will be taking place as it is delivering its resultant snow and strong wind to southeastern New England. Another aspect of storms like this is lightning and thunder, and there will likely be some with this one. How much snow? I think we’ll be setting a general 18 to 28 inch snowfall across southeastern NH and most of eastern MA and RI with the exception being Cape Cod and the South Coast with 10 to 18 inches, except 6 to 12 inches on Nantucket. Another area of mostly 12 to 18 inches is expected for north central MA and southwestern NH, though the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills may see greater than 18 inches. Drifting snow may reach several feet in some locations. Drifting is not only dependent on the wind speed but the wind direction and can be very variable. Keep this in mind if you plan to be out in the storm or when you start your snow removal after the storm. Wind from the northeast to north during the storm will likely max out on Tuesday at 15-35 MPH inland and 25-45 MPH in coastal areas with gusts as high as 55 MPH inland and 65 MPH along the coast, strongest over Cape Cod where even a few stronger gusts are possible. Some wind damage is likely in coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. East and north facing shores will also see minor to moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide. Areas most prone to flooding may see moderate to briefly major flooding. There will be some high swell and large waves along the shore during this event and shortly after it.
\nWednesday… It’s over, the sun is back, but it is quite cold. Cleanup gets underway. Be safe!
\nThursday… High pressure provides another nice but cold day. Get your cleanup done if you can!
\nFriday… Low pressure tracks from the Midwest through the Northeast and brings a chance of snow. Not likely a big storm but may have some significant impact, depending on track and timing.
\nWeekend… Very cold but likely dry weather as January ends and February begins.<\/p>\n
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
\nSUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Brief snow flurry possible eastern MA early. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
\nSUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 along the coast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH diminishing overnight.
\nMONDAY: Thickening overcast. Ocean effect snow showers possible in eastern coastal areas by mid afternoon. Snow develops South Coast by late afternoon. Highs 15-20 interior MA and southern NH, 20s elsewhere. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing later in the day.
\nMONDAY NIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Chance of lightning and thunder. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
\nTUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet\/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
\nTUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. For total storm accumulation expected, please see SUMMARY section above. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
\nWEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
\nTHURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
\nFRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
\nSATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
\nSUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 25.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
1:03PM Since I may post a few extra blog entries during the next few days, The Week Ahead post that appears every Sunday evening (usually) will be a touch early, since we have a very significant storm coming. COMMENTARY… I’ll keep this short and sweet. We all know the problems with so many sources of … Continue reading The Week Ahead (Special Edition)<\/span>