2:51AM<\/p>\n
DAY 1 (TODAY’S STORM)
\nI’ve decided to isolate “day 1” into its own section for the purposes of this weather event. You may remember recent reminders of poor computer model performance beyond 3 days and a weather pattern that can produce a renegade big snow event with not a lot of warning. Well, here it is. This storm is coming today as low pressure tracks east northeast off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks just south of New England while intensifying rapidly, during which time it will gather Atlantic moisture and throw it into much colder air, which follows a Wednesday that started very icy but ended up feeling like spring. Classic changeable New England weather – it’s really nothing new. So let’s run through a break down of the storm and just incorporate today’s and tonight’s detailed forecast into this…
\nSTART: Should be underway already by dawn in western and central MA to southwestern NH, and much of CT, then rapidly advance eastward so that Boston and Providence are into the snow by 8AM and areas to the southeast of there are underway shortly thereafter.
\nPRECIPITATION TYPE: May start as rain in far southeastern MA, especially cape Cod and the Islands, and perhaps far southern RI, but here it will change to snow and be a wet to average consistency snow, staying wettest on Nantucket, which may take until early afternoon to go to snow. Elsewhere, it’s all snow, of average consistency near the South Shore for a while before becoming lower water content later, and a dry\/fluffy snow for the remainder of the region.
\nPEAK TIME: 9AM-2PM CT \/ central MA \/ southwestern NH, 10AM-4PM RI \/ eastern MA \/ southeastern NH. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be common during the peak time, especially under bands of heavier snow that set up. It’s always difficult to say where these will be more than a few hours in advance, and even closer to the occurrence, so will monitor and update.
\nCOASTAL FRONT: This feature is a boundary, like a localized front, that marks the edge of very cold air over inland areas and less cold air from the ocean. In this case, northeast winds will be blowing in the region to the east of the boundary, while to the west the are blowing from the north in the much colder air. This creates an area of convergence of air and results in rising air which then results in a band of heavier precipitation. The most likely spot for this to set up is from Boston to just inland of the South Shore.
\nTHUNDERSNOW: Yes, lightning and thunder are possible with the heavier snow bands.
\nEND TIME: Connecticut Valley and Hartford area about 5PM, Worcester MA north and south by 7PM, Boston area north and south by 9PM, and final flakes exiting Cape Cod by 11PM or midnight.
\nSNOW ACCUMULATION: Widespread 10-15 inches for most locations. Exceptions, under 10 inches in portions of southwestern NH to north central MA and in a few valley areas and probably over Nantucket due to a wetter snow. Pockets of greater than 15 inches are very possible especially associated with heavier precipitation banding which is common with rapidly-intensifying storm systems.
\nTEMPERATURE: Starting out in the 30s over far southeastern MA and southern RI but falling to the upper 20s here by late-day, mainly from the middle and lower 20s to upper 10s elsewhere. There may also be a sharp contrast in temperature from near 30 just east of the coastal front to near 20 just west of it. By tonight, all areas fall to overnight lows of 5-13.
\nWIND: NE increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts as high as 45-55 MPH over southeastern MA, N increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH elsewhere.
\nBLIZZARD CONDITIONS: This is most likely to occur in southeastern MA where the winds are strongest for the longest period of time, at least in terms of being an official blizzard by definition (3 or more consecutive hours of greatly-reduced visibility caused by sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater), but it’s important to note that gusty winds blowing the falling and already fallen drier\/fluffy snow around in areas further to the north and west will create white-out conditions at times, even if the official criteria for a blizzard are not met.
\nPOST-STORM: The sky will clear from west to east as temperatures fall to lows of 8-16 with NW wind diminishing slightly but remaining gusty.<\/p>\n
DAYS 2-5 (FEBRUARY 10-13)
\nA shot of very cold air Friday will be followed by a small low pressure system coming from Canada via the Great Lakes bringing a risk of snow during the morning hours of Saturday. The next system will be on its heels and bring a chance of snow\/rain by late Sunday to early Monday. Track of this one will be critical to determining precipitation type. This system may also try to intensify rapidly as it departs but will watch in case it happens sooner.
\nFRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.
\nFRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow late. Lows 10-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
\nSATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of snow morning with minor accumulation. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
\nSUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain\/mix\/snow late. Lows 20-28. Highs 35-42.
\nMONDAY: Mainly cloudy early with chance of snow\/mix\/rain. Partly sunny later. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
\nActive pattern continues with fair\/cold weather February 14, then a storm threat February 15 which may bring snow\/mix. A very cold air mass may arrive for the middle and end of this period.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
\nTemperatures recover and moderate with a little more quiet pattern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2:51AM DAY 1 (TODAY’S STORM) I’ve decided to isolate “day 1” into its own section for the purposes of this weather event. You may remember recent reminders of poor computer model performance beyond 3 days and a weather pattern that can produce a renegade big snow event with not a lot of warning. Well, here … Continue reading Thursday Forecast<\/span>