7:31AM<\/p>\n
This update is not showing any changes to the forecast at this point. Another blog update this afternoon will cover any adjustments that need to be made. I realize a slight westward shift is apparent in some of the guidance but that does not necessarily mean this is going to be the final outcome. Look for an update around 4PM.<\/p>\n
Reminders…
\n * Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
\n * When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
\n * Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
\n * Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.<\/p>\n
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
\nJust a forecast update for now. Full discussion on this afternoon’s blog post.
\nTODAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
\nTONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
\nTUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning\/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
\nWEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
\nTHURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.
\nFRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
\nWatching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. More potential unsettled weather about March 22. Temperatures below normal.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
\nWatching possible storminess again later period. Temperatures near to below normal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
7:31AM This update is not showing any changes to the forecast at this point. Another blog update this afternoon will cover any adjustments that need to be made. I realize a slight westward shift is apparent in some of the guidance but that does not necessarily mean this is going to be the final outcome. … Continue reading Monday Forecast<\/span>