11:22AM<\/p>\n
STORM SUMMARY
\nI would love to say the forecast for the storm worked out well, and I suppose it did, in general. But there was a big miss, and that was north central MA and southern NH which got in on the heaviest of the snow that I actually thought would have fallen further south. The expansion of the precipitation area was greater than I expected, and some hard-to-see banding took place in those areas mentioned above. Looking back, a forecast of 4-8 inches would have been better for a large portion of the region, with 1-4 inches for the South Coast region with mixing\/rain involved. All in all, not too bad, but I don’t like to dwell on my performance other than learning from the mistakes, and I have taken some notes for future reference in this regard.<\/p>\n
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
\nAs promised, the snow that did fall will not be hanging around and is already in the process of melting. Not that it’s super warm today, only into the 40s, but that higher February sun angle does a number on the snow this time of year that hasn’t had a chance to go through a melt\/freeze process. And we’re only going to see a little bit of that as we drop below freezing tonight, but tomorrow, despite losing the sunshine to an approaching warm front which eventually brings some rain, the temperature will be climbing far above freezing accelerating and nearly completing the melting process. And whatever should survive tomorrow will certainly be eradicated Tuesday as we see an even bigger temperature spike, which will peak on Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast and a cold front hangs back to the north. This front will arrive by early Thursday and high pressure behind it will send a much cooler air mass into the region, ending the spring preview. Forecast details…
\nTODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.
\nTONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-23 interior, 24-29 coast. Wind light variable.
\nMONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
\nMONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind light S.
\nTUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 immediate South Coast ranging to 60-67 interior areas with a small 52-60 area in between. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
\nWEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s to around 50. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s immediate South Coast, middle 50s to lower 60s just away from the coast, middle 60s to lower 70s interior.
\nTHURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a period of rain morning-midday which may end as a mix. Temperatures fall through 50s and 40s to upper 30s.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
\nHard to time precipitation threats in what will be an active pattern but looking at the most likely days for them being during the February 24-25 weekend, and February 27. The first may start with freezing or frozen precipitation but will likely end up mainly rain. The second can be any type of precipitation and confidence is too low to be sure this far in advance.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
\nEvolution of the pattern is to below normal temperatures and will have to watch for some additional storminess. Leaning toward a blocking pattern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
11:22AM STORM SUMMARY I would love to say the forecast for the storm worked out well, and I suppose it did, in general. But there was a big miss, and that was north central MA and southern NH which got in on the heaviest of the snow that I actually thought would have fallen further … Continue reading Sunday Forecast<\/span>