3:35PM<\/p>\n
High pressure has slipped offshore and a southerly flow behind it is bringing in increasing humidity with some clouds, though it has been and remains a generally nice day across southern New England. A cold front will amble its way into and across New England from west to east Thursday and Thursday night, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms. The main activity should occur just ahead of and along the front itself during the night. High pressure will build in on Friday bringing nice weather for a day, but the front from the night before will not be far offshore, and the boundary left behind by it will drift back toward the coast by Saturday, setting up a conveyor belt for tropical moisture in advance of Hurricane Irene. This means that showers may break out during Saturday, and by Saturday evening or night, some of them may be heavy. This will not be directly associated with Irene. We will feel the first rain bands from that during the day on Sunday. Irene’s closest pass is expected Sunday evening. There, of course, is still uncertainty on the final track. If you look at yesterday’s blog post I wrote a “for fun” scenario in the comments section, based on my actual thoughts. This still holds, and for the moment is similar to the track issued by the National Weather Service. This track brought Irene close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday then accelerated it north northeast to the eastern tip of Long Island NY and then into the South Coast of New England near the border of Rhode Island and Connecticut by late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday night. Tropical cyclones that have turned to the north along or off the US East Coast often accelerate very rapidly and start to lose tropical characteristics, but history has shown they can still pack quite a punch. In this case, Irene is expected to behave like the majority of these systems. I expect it to reach southern New England as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. If it were to scrape NC a little further inland than the outer banks or remain near the Delmarva Coast longer, it would weaken a little more due to its proximity to land (interaction with land weakens these storms – they like warm water). If the center remains offshore, it will maintain alot of its intensity, though weaken some, as the water is running warmer than normal at this time. So it all comes down to the details of the track. Anyone east of the track will see stronger winds, and bands of heavy rain, though not tremendous rainfall totals in most cases. Coastal areas east of the center, especially south-facing ones, face a storm surge of at least a few feet, which would lead to flooding. Wind damage is also most likely in these areas. Those who are west of the path will see much less wind but a heavier swath of rain. Wind damage is still possible here but would be much less widespread. However, the heavy rain could aid in bringing down some trees that were weakened by previous heavy rain, and even weakened by some of last winter’s storms.<\/p>\n
I believe that Irene will be accelerating so quickly, that most if not all rain will be over by Sunday night at midnight, and the stars may even be visible through breaks in the clouds here in southern New England.<\/p>\n
It should also be noted that landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes, and even depressions) can produce tornadoes. These are usually weaker than the type produced by severe thunderstorms, but are still capable of producing significant damage. These are most likely on the side of the storm that would be east of the center. Something to keep in mind if any part of southern New England is east of the center.<\/p>\n
Check back here for further updates on Irene and please feel free to join in the discussion below, in the comments section!<\/p>\n
In the mean time, here is my latest forecast for the Boston Area and nearby neighbors…<\/p>\n
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Temperature settling from near 80 into the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.<\/p>\n
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms after 10AM. High 81-86. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to SW late in the day.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early. A band of showers and locally heavier thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east about 10PM-2AM. Low 61-66. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W overnight.<\/p>\n
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Tropical showers likely, some heavy. Possible thunder. Strong winds and heavy rain possible from late afternoon into evening depending on the exact track of Irene. Low 66. High 77.<\/p>\n
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 84.<\/p>\n
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 80.<\/p>\n
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 78.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
3:35PM High pressure has slipped offshore and a southerly flow behind it is bringing in increasing humidity with some clouds, though it has been and remains a generally nice day across southern New England. A cold front will amble its way into and across New England from west to east Thursday and Thursday night, bringing … Continue reading Boston Area Discussion, Irene Impacts, & Forecast<\/span>