12:31PM<\/p>\n
The center of Hurricane Irene is over eastern North Carolina, which is weakening the system somewhat. It maintains Category 1 hurricane intensity, however. We have seen the storm move more to the north during the morning, but that northward movement has slowed, and that indicates it was more of a track wobble. Expect the center to shift briefly to the east then take a more north northeast track, and should be partly to mostly over water just east of Norfolk, Virginia, by this evening.<\/p>\n
The changes I am making are more in timing than intensity. I think we should see a minimal category 1 hurricane making landfall on Long Island NY, but as I now expect a little faster acceleration, this landfall will take place Sunday afternoon. I’m going to hold the same track for now, despite the NHC track being shifted a bit west. There is a trough approaching from the west but enough southwesterly flow ahead of it, though causing the hurricane to become less organized, may also kick the center a little more east with time. Its faster acceleration washes out the decrease in wind due to weakening on the east side. Because of this I will continue with the same forecast regarding wind gusts and storm surge. We may see the 8 feet becoming less likely and closer to the 4 being more of a reality, but I’ll leave the range the same for now, in case.<\/p>\n
So overall, no great changes to the forecast, other than just a little faster beginning and ending. And don’t forget that strong winds are still possible on the back side as the storm moves away.<\/p>\n
Updated Boston Area Forecast\u2026<\/p>\n
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, a few possibly heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Mild and very humid. High 74-79. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of tropical showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times. Low 64-69. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers most numerous in the morning, likely heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms as well. Brief intervals of sunshine may pop out between the downpours over the Boston area and points to the south. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE to S 15-25 MPH increasing to 25-45 MPH with gusts 50 MPH or higher becoming quite common, shifting more to the W during the afternoon. Hurricane-force gusts are still possible over higher elevations and mainly south-facing coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible especially from morning through mid afternoon.<\/p>\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds following. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.<\/p>\n
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty, diminishing slowly.<\/p>\n
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.<\/p>\n
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.<\/p>\n
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
12:31PM The center of Hurricane Irene is over eastern North Carolina, which is weakening the system somewhat. It maintains Category 1 hurricane intensity, however. We have seen the storm move more to the north during the morning, but that northward movement has slowed, and that indicates it was more of a track wobble. Expect the … Continue reading Irene – Saturday Afternoon Update<\/span>