2:01AM<\/p>\n
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
\nHere is a breakdown of the weather I expect to occur during the next 5 days – classic New England winter weather at its “finest”…
\nWe begin with a cold but day today as high pressure moves in from Canada. This high will not hang around and will make way for a minor low pressure system moving across New England Friday, passing north of southern New England. Its warm front will produce a period of snow (mix to rain to the south) with minor accumulation as it passes through during Friday morning. Its cold front will come through later in the day fairly uneventful, but it will open the door for cold air again which will settle in during Friday night and Saturday. And then we turn our attention to the well-advertised bigger storm for Sunday. It will actually move in during Saturday night, as snow spread west to east during the evening hours. The low pressure center which will be coming out of the Ohio Valley is likely to “jump the mountains” and redevelop near the Delmarva. The very cold high pressure system in eastern Canada will likely cause the center of this system to pass just south of New England. It won’t be a powerful low, but the combination of it and the high to the north, warm air to the south feeding the system and arctic cold banked over New England are the ingredients for a significant winter weather event. This low will also be fairly elongated and not concentrated in one compact powerful center. So how does it impact southeastern New England? This is how I think it goes. Heaviest of the snowfall for the entire region will be Saturday night, in the late-night hours or pre-dawn hours of Sunday, however warmer air working in aloft and more marginal surface temperatures along the South Coast will turn the snow to a period of sleet then rain there fairly quickly, so accumulations are expected to be most minimal there. We are very likely to see the warm air aloft work its way northward into a good portion of southern New England during the course of the precipitation event, which continues through most of the day Sunday. All the while, the cold air will be very stubborn near the ground. As you know, the temperatures profile in the atmosphere will determine what falls in any given location. My best guess at this point is that we see mostly snow with possible sleet mix across southern NH to the I-495 belt of MA down to about the Mass Pike, and in these areas my first guess for snowfall is 8-14 inches. In a fairly wide band which includes the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to the Mass Pike and the city of Boston the snow will be followed by sleet and a first guess for this band of real estate is 4-8 inches of snow topped with sleet. To the south, in the Plymouth MA to Providence RI and southeastern CT corridor, I’d expect a turn to rain, however a narrow strip of freezing rain would be possible near the sleet\/rain line depending on surface temperatures (something to watch closely) but these areas would see 2-4 inches of snow before a changeover, and a coating to 2 inch snow amount early in the storm would occur closer to the South Coast including much of Cape Cod. PLEASE keep in mind that I am first guessing these amounts 3 days before the storm and these are not solid final numbers just yet. There is a lot of wiggle room still at this point, as just mere miles difference in storm track \/ temperature profile impacts these boundaries. Regardless of the details of the storm, it will be ready to pull the cold air right back in as it starts to move away Sunday evening, so everybody ends as snow tapering to snow showers. The big question: Will the clouds break in time for at least a little bit of view of the total lunar eclipse that takes place from Sunday evening to the early hours of Monday morning? Time will tell. What is certain is that bitterly cold arctic air will be in place, along with plenty of wind, for the MLK Jr birthday observance on Monday.
\nForecast details…
\nTODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
\nTONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Areas of snow arrive overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind light variable.
\nFRIDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch but some 2 inch amounts possible higher elevations of central MA and southern NH, but changing to mix\/rain South Coast, ending midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
\nFRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
\nSATURDAY: Partly sunny day. Cloudy with snow arriving west to east at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
\nSUNDAY: Significant storm of snow\/sleet\/ice\/rain. Temperatures range from 20s north and west to near 40 Cape Cod during the day, falling rapidly at night.
\nMONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
\nNot highly confident on this forecast but the idea would be for dry\/cold January 22, milder with rain\/snow showers January 23, dry\/colder January 24, and another low pressure system potentially impacting the region later in the period with a precipitation threat.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
\nWill be monitoring for a lobe of Polar Vortex and where it ends up. Further east and we’re colder and drier with a few light snow threats. Further west, not quite as cold but possibly stormier. Leaning toward the colder\/drier scenario at this time. Will re-evalulate this period in future updates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2:01AM DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21) Here is a breakdown of the weather I expect to occur during the next 5 days – classic New England winter weather at its “finest”… We begin with a cold but day today as high pressure moves in from Canada. This high will not hang around and will make way … Continue reading Thursday Forecast<\/span>