8:40AM<\/p>\n
COMMENTARY
\nThe challenge it has been to forecast medium and longer range stuff the last several months has been more fun than frustrating to me. It’s an approach I must take to this science otherwise it would drive me nuts. And now I wonder if that cold\/dry regime I have been expecting which the “negative PNA” and “elusive MJO” have been making me look like a fool waiting for my finally be coming … in March. But then again, maybe it’s just another dangling carrot. Oh well, one step at a time, starting with the next 5 days first. Read on…<\/p>\n
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
\nHigh pressure retreats today, which will still be a nice day. Low pressure cranks up and tracks through the Great Lakes Sunday, bringing what will be mainly a rain event to the region, however it may start as snow\/sleet briefly in the pre-dawn hours as just enough cold hangs on initially. Another thing to watch for will be pockets of freezing rain in central MA and southwestern NH especially in elevated valleys where cold air will hang on the longest before being scoured out. The now well-advertised windy Monday will indeed be occurring as what will be a monster-sized low pressure circulation slowly moves through eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. The strongest winds will be Monday, but they will still be gusty through Tuesday. And then it’s “wildcard Wednesday” as the next low pressure area moves into the region. Model forecasts, as expected, have been all over the place with this during the course of the last several days, and as it gets closer and now in the 5-day range it looks like an unimpressive but possibly frozen event. Still some details to work out on this over the next couple days, so will leave forecast wording vague for now.
\nForecast details…
\nTODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
\nTONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives pre-dawn, may start as snow\/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early. Wind light SE.
\nSUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Pockets of freezing rain possibly early in elevated valleys of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
\nSUNDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
\nMONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
\nTUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
\nWEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow\/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
\nMidweek system departs early February 28 as snow\/mix\/rain (uncertain at this point on precipitation type). Will watch the first 4 days of March for at least one more storm threat but to be honest I am not even close to confident about timing and details so will leave it at that for today and attempt a little more tuning tomorrow.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
\nWe remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
8:40AM COMMENTARY The challenge it has been to forecast medium and longer range stuff the last several months has been more fun than frustrating to me. It’s an approach I must take to this science otherwise it would drive me nuts. And now I wonder if that cold\/dry regime I have been expecting which the … Continue reading Saturday Forecast<\/span>