7:10AM<\/p>\n
DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)
\nMy opinion of the weather for today has been the same since about last Thursday, and that is we’d see a marine layer in place with chilly air, especially closer to the coast, with a likely overcast sky and patchy drizzle\/fog. The uncertainty was whether or not we’d see any rain showers or steady rain, and if so whether or not it would have an impact on the playing of the first game of the baseball season at Fenway Park. It still looks like, unless that game runs long, that they will get it in without the rain, but definitely with the damp and raw chill in the air. That’s spring in New England. It’s happened like this many times, and since that big ocean we live next to isn’t going anywhere, it will happen many more times. About those showers, it’s a cold front approaching, which will bring drying air in tomorrow. Is it really a cold front if many portions of eastern MA, southern NH, and RI end up milder tomorrow than they will be today? Technically yes. Why? The marine layer of air at the surface is rather shallow. If you travel upward a thousand feet, it’s it will be much milder. Think of the marine layer as an extension of the surface. The rest of the weather is going on above it while we’re socked in. That mild air above will indeed by replaced by colder air up there tomorrow, but here at the surface as we shift to a land breeze and push the marine layer away, it will actually be milder during the mid part of the day behind the cold front. High pressure moves into the region Wednesday night then offshore gradually during Thursday, which will be a nice day but with a cooling coastal sea breeze. A strong low pressure area will move into the western Great Lakes Friday then across southeastern Canada Saturday. A warm front will cross the region early Friday with some cloudiness and a cold front will approach from the west later Friday, which turns out cloudier and eventually wet. This cold front will be the first of 2 parented by that low, and the air will not be all the chilly behind the first one, so Saturday ends up dry and breezy but fairly mild, until the second cold front comes across later in the day with some clouds (no precipitation) and a shifting wind leading to a chillier ending to the day.
\nForecast details…
\nTODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day, may be mixed with sleet\/snow southern NH and northern MA. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE later.
\nTONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely early evening, ending west to east late evening. An additional passing rain\/sleet\/snow shower possible across southern NH and far northern MA late evening or overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
\nWEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
\nWEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
\nTHURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
\nTHURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
\nFRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arrive west to east during afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
\nFRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
\nSATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.<\/p>\n
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)
\nLatest examination of the upcoming pattern shifts my thinking on the next system a little to a faster and more progressive situation, with warm front approaching April 14 turning a bright start into a cloudy and wet finish, but the system may move so quickly, regardless of whether low pressure tracks south of, over, or north of southern New England, that the threat of wet weather may diminish rather quickly during April 15, which happens to feature the Boston Marathon as well as a late morning Red Sox start. Will fine-tune this forecast. Progressive pattern expected to continue and result in dry weather April 16-17 and a rain shower risk April 18 based on current timing.<\/p>\n
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)
\nThis pattern during this period may be in the configuration of what I call a progressive block. Sounds contradictory but not really. It’s a set-up with high latitude blocking that is kind of squished north but systems to the south keep moving from west to east instead of cutting off. It results in a pattern here that probably brings 1 or 2 relatively minor storm systems across the region during the period, but no long-lasting unsettled weather. Since medium range has been difficult of late with MJO being neutral (for one thing) and seemingly messing up the medium range guidance, will really just keep in mind that the weather pattern during this period may end up different than currently expected and will keep watching it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
7:10AM DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13) My opinion of the weather for today has been the same since about last Thursday, and that is we’d see a marine layer in place with chilly air, especially closer to the coast, with a likely overcast sky and patchy drizzle\/fog. The uncertainty was whether or not we’d see any … Continue reading Tuesday Forecast<\/span>