7:28AM<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This 5 day segment contains a few more adjustments as I fine-tune the evolving situation. First and foremost, today’s thunderstorm threat remains, but it looks like some of the potential may not be realized – not a bad thing. We’ve already gotten the area of rain ahead of the warm front through, and as the front makes its way through the area I still expect it to have difficulty pushing much beyond the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts, possibly leaving northeastern Massachusetts and much of southern NH, especially the Seacoast, on the cooler side of the boundary. With a little more sun expected, the temperature potential is a little bit higher away from the ocean’s influence and in the warmer air mass, so the contrast in high temperatures across the region today, given my idea of the front’s position is correct, will be quite large. As for the thunderstorms, the way I see it unfolding is just isolated to widely scattered showers \/ storms forming after 2 p.m. from west to east across the area for the first round. Any of these storms could become severe with hail and damaging wind, and there is even a risk that an isolated severe storm could be a rotating super cell storm in which case there would be a tornado potential. This is the extreme case, and won’t be widespread, but just something to be aware of if \/ when storms fire up this afternoon. The greatest practice you can have while monitoring weather: no panic, follow trusted sources, react accordingly. After whatever happens from the first round of threat goes by, we will have to wait for at least one, and up to a few segmented lines of showers \/ storms, but this may not take place until after 6 p.m. from northwest to southeast across the area, finally winding down around midnight or shortly thereafter for South Coast locations. While there is still the possibility of strong to locally severe storms with these, that type of activity may be rather limited as the activity occurring later, while having some dynamic support, will lack daytime heating to feed on. Obviously, this will be monitored closely. On to the weekend… looks like a nice one as a weak area of high pressure dominates Saturday then starts to move away Sunday as clouds increase ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. Expecting wet weather to hold off until Sunday evening, at the earliest, and perhaps all the way to Monday morning. Some of this will depend on the evolution of low pressure to the south of New England. As mentioned yesterday, this evolving system will have an impact on our weather here, as such systems tend to during the springtime. The hype has been the possibility of this thing having subtropical characteristics and getting a name, and that’s honestly the least of the concerns, unless anybody wants to get an early jump on trying to verify a seasonal forecast. Truth is, the storm will probably never really deserve a name, by definition, but the point is, the low pressure area will impact the weather as it moves northward and adds moisture to Monday’s wet weather system, and keeping it slowed down to hang around through the day, along with a gusty wind and cool\/raw air blowing in off the chilly Atlantic. So a miserable Monday seems in the offing. There have been some differences in the various guidance as to how quickly to move this system out of here. It does look like high pressure drifting down from eastern Canada will be strong enough to push this system back to the south starting Tuesday, but we will still likely be under its cloud canopy and have at least ocean-enhanced drizzle, even if the rain area has already retreated. This is the scenario I’m going with now. Suffice it to say, the early part of next week doesn’t look very good, weather wise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on, some possibly strong to severe, favoring interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 57-64 South Coast, NH Seacoast, northeastern MA, 65-72 interior southeastern NH, Merrimack Valley, southwestern to south central NH, and far eastern MA, 73-80 interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE 5-15 MPH coastal NH and northeastern MA, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from northwest to southeast late evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain\/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of drizzle. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E_NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle, especially coastal areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
High pressure pressing southward from eastern Canada should push low pressure far enough south for clearing and dry weather May 20-21, but as this high then moves to a position east of New England, some of the lingering moisture from the old system to the south and southwest may come back as scattered showers with more humid conditions May 22-24. Temperatures not too far from normal during this 5-day period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additional high pressure in eastern Canada and building high pressure over the US Southeast may keep a boundary somewhat nearby, making for a tricky temperature and weather forecast heading down the home stretch of May. Leaning toward a few unsettled days and cool winning out over warm, but with low confidence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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7:28AM DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19) This 5 day segment contains a few more adjustments as I fine-tune the evolving situation. First and foremost, today’s thunderstorm threat remains, but it looks like some of the potential may not be realized – not a bad thing. We’ve already gotten the area of rain ahead of the warm … Continue reading Friday Forecast<\/span>