DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
A warm front crosses the region this morning, made evident by some cloudiness, but the sun returns to areas that are clouded over by later this morning and by this afternoon, temperatures that are some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, along with much less wind, will feel quite mild in comparison to the mid winter feel of just 24 hours prior. Don’t get used to the brief warm up though, because the cold core that came down across the area on Tuesday is the result of a little lobe of Polar Vortex, which, because of an evolving blocking pattern, is not going to just exit cleanly through the Canadian Maritime Provinces, but do a loop there, and move back to the west before drifting southward over the northeastern US once again. The leading edge of this at the surface will be a cold front that drops southward through the region tonight. However, since it is March and the sun angle is what it is, this lobe of cold will be modified, so while we will fall to below normal in the temperature department again later this week and through the weekend, it will not be to the degree (no pun intended) of what just left us. The other purpose this pattern and resultant low pressure circulation will do is protect the Northeast from any further visits from low pressure to the south, once a medium range threat for the end of this week, and now apparently that no longer. We will have a couple troughs coming through the region around the upper level low pressure circulation, and this will be responsible for some diurnal cloud development Thursday especially with the aid of the hills & mountains to the north and west, and some of this cloud cover may migrate southeastward into the WHW forecast area if it is not consumed by the dry air in place. On Friday, a little sharper trough may help induce a few snow flurries from another round of diurnal clouds, but these should be more scattered in nature. For the weekend, a fairly similar set-up to Thursday-Friday is expected, with breezy conditions and below normal temperatures. So our one-day “warm-up” today will be followed by a March chill which will last right through the first weekend of the month.
TODAY: Variably cloudy through mid morning. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Low pressure in eastern Canada departs and high pressure sinks to the south of New England providing additional mostly dry weather but this time with a warming trend pushing temperatures to above normal levels. The question to answer is when this warm-up will come to an end via a cold front from the north as colder air re-builds in Canada. That could happen as early as March 11 or 12 along with some unsettled weather by then, but medium range guidance disagrees on this so it will be something to monitor. We will, however, enjoy a preview of spring for at least a few days.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
A reorganizing pattern will feature a developing block which will turn our area colder again and eventually provide the opportunity for unsettled weather as well as we head into the final days of astronomical winter.