DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

Early morning warning! If you are about to step outside and it’s before 9:00 a.m., watch for patches of black ice where moisture from yesterday’s rain and overnight fog has frozen on some surfaces as the sky cleared and temperature fell to freezing or below in many locations. This will improve quickly as the sun rises and the temperature heads back above freezing on the journey to today’s relatively mild high temperatures (upper 30s to lower 40s). Any remaining fog patches dissipate early as well, and we’ll have sunshine for a while, but mid and high level clouds will quickly be on the increase later this morning, leading to an overcast afternoon, capping the temperature rise as we cut off the solar heating and also start to feel the arrival of a colder air mass from west to east across the region, albeit slowly at first. At the same time, a wave of low pressure currently in the US Southeast will be on a quick northeastward journey and will be passing off our coast tonight and first thing Monday morning, while intensifying. This low pressure system will bring a quick-hitting but significant snow event to most of the region. Milder air in place at the onset means that it starts as rain for a good portion of southeastern MA and RI to southeastern CT (basically the MA South Shore to the New England South Coast), before the cold air flips those areas to snow. This also means those areas will have lower snow totals, as discussed on the previous blog post. Elsewhere, a general moderate snowfall is likely, with several inches in the range of accumulations. The system exits early Monday, and other than an potential snow shower ushering in arctic air, look for dry and much colder weather Monday through Thursday. A storm system will pass not too far offshore Wednesday, but as for its snow shield, that will likely be a near-miss for the South Coast / Cape Cod region outside of a potential band of ocean effect snow showers reaching Outer Cape Cod as a result of the storm’s circulation. The core of the cold will be exiting by Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds morning-midday. Overcast remainder of day with end-of-day snow (NW) and rain (SE) arriving. Highs 36-43. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, except rain changing to snow southeastern areas, then snow tapering off just before sunrise. Expected snow accumulation – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches near the Cape Cod Canal and South Coast region, 4 to 8 inches elsewhere, with isolated pockets of 8-10 inches possible mainly west of the I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Snow potentials (favoring southeastern areas) in the January 24-25 window, and another potential January 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued near to below normal temperature pattern to end January / start February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

This weekend marks the in-your-face portion of a weather pattern shift. Today will be a milder day with a southerly air flow freshening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will result in rain showers for our region late in the day and this evening. A period of partial clearing and the start of a chill down follows this overnight into Sunday, setting the stage for the second round of unsettled weather from late afternoon Sunday to early morning Monday. This will come as a batch of precipitation associated with a wave of low pressure moving swiftly northeastward along the frontal boundary that will then be offshore. The low will be starting to deepen fairly quickly as it passes by, and this combined with its precise track results in a tricky-to-forecast rain/snow line to start and a range of snowfall amounts. The low’s track will be close enough for the precipitation to start as rain from the South Coast of New England to the South Shore of MA, and snow elsewhere, but with the rain/snow line then shifting southeastward so that the areas that start as rain flip over to snow. To the west of the I-95 belt where there is nothing but snow and the atmosphere is coldest, snow amounts will be greatest, and areas that start as rain then turn to snow will have lesser overall snow accumulation in the end due to less time to accumulate, and wetter snow when it is snowing. If you have read my previous commentary you may have seen my initial snowfall forecast for this system was widespread 3 to 6 inches with 1 to 3 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. The update today makes a few changes to this since we’re close to the event and can pinpoint a little more. I’ll trim back the eastern portion of the 1 to 3 inch area to limit accumulation to about 1 inch over Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1 to 2 inches for Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches for the remainder of the South Coast region up through the MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches in the I-95 belt, and a bump-up in expected snow amounts to 6 to 8 inches west of the I-95 belt. This event wraps up first thing Monday morning as the last of the snow exits the coast around sunrise. This will be followed by plunging temperatures with a surge of arctic air that comes in Monday and lasts into the middle of next week, but with dry weather. Another low center will pass not-too-far southeast of New England by Wednesday, but the snow shield from that stays offshore.

TODAY: Limited morning sun, then cloudy. Rain showers arrive from southwest to northeast late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times especially South Coast and higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Overcast with widespread rain showers and areas of fog evening. Breaking clouds, dissipating fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives by late-day except rain southeastern MA / South Coast regions. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow southeastern areas. Expected snow accumulation by dawn – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches remainder of South Coast to MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches I-95 belt, 6 to 8 inches west of I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

While the coldest air eases early in the period the pattern holds below normal temperatures in place. An additional snow threat exists in the January 24-25 window and again about January 27. Magnitude of threat(s) and details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January and start of February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A sugar-dusting of snow fell in some areas overnight, and a little thicker coating in the South Coast region as a disturbance passed by the region. Today, high pressure noses in for a fair weather day and feeling fairly pleasant for mid January with above-freezing high temps and less wind. High pressure shifts offshore and a southerly wind increase for Saturday. But while this warms us up we end up cloudy as a cold front approaches. This front will bring a round of rain with the milder air in place Saturday late-day / early-night, before partial clearing arrives from west to east as the front pushes offshore. Colder air filters in Sunday, but we’ll have some diurnal temperature rise to overcome that along with some sun to start. But as colder air filters in from the north and west, clouds thicken back up as a low pressure wave rides up along the front that moved offshore the day before. This low pressure area will be moving quickly, but intensifying as it goes by, and this will result in a period of accumulating snow for Sunday evening to early Monday, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall expected. The lowest amounts are expected across Cape Cod and the Islands where some rain will be involved early on as the mild air holds on longest there. By the end of the event, we’ll be experiencing the onset of an arctic air invasion which will put us into the deep freeze late Monday and Tuesday, but with dry weather.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 21-28 evening. Temperatures rise slowly overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives late-day / evening except rain at first Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow Cape Cod / Islands. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Dry and very cold middle of next week (Wednesday-Thursday) while another storm tracks out to sea to the southeast of New England. Follow up system brings a snow chance late next week (Friday and/or Saturday). Fair, cold weather returns end of next weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

We remain in a cold pattern overall, but a brief warm-up is coming, and it’s part of a pattern change that introduces more snow chances ahead, but first, a weak disturbance coming along from the west today will send clouds into the region and a period of snow showers this evening / tonight. Only a dusting / coating of snow is possible but up to an inch can fall on the islands just south of Cape Cod, as they will be closer to what becomes a developing low pressure area before it moves away overnight. Weak high pressure noses in on Friday from the southwest with fair and pleasant mid winter weather. High pressure then slides off the Atlantic Coast and a trough and cold front approach from the west Saturday, which will be a milder day. Enough mild air comes in so this front will be a rain producer for several hours Saturday evening – maybe enough to wash residual salt / road treatment off surfaces not too long before we’ll need them again. This will become the case as after the front moves through, cold air returns, then a wave of low pressure brings a period of accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday. Later Monday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will be knocking on the door and not waiting for us to open it before barging in.

TODAY: Increasing clouds – fading sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow showers with dustings / coatings for accumulation, except up to 1 inch Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds – sun returns. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy black ice possible overnight. Lows 23-30 in the evening, rising back into the 30s overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sun early, then cloudy. Highs 37-44 in the morning, then falling slowly through 30s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow with up to a few to several inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with snow early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 by midday, then quick-falling temperatures later in the day. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Dry and very cold through the middle of next week followed by a chance of snow late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Northwesterly flow continues to deliver cold air for a couple more days. Today’s weather will be dry and breezy with plenty of sunshine – and you’ll start to notice it staying lighter a little later – into the 5:00 p.m. hour now. Thursday, a disturbance approaches with an increase in clouds and this system may bring a period of light snow and perhaps a few heavier snow showers as it passes through the region in the evening. Behind it though, instead of a push of colder air, temperatures will moderate as winds shift to west and lighten up on Friday, in response to a larger high pressure area to our southwest. The high slides off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This sets up a weekend weather transition in which we see a mainly cloudy, milder Saturday, with late-day and nighttime rain, which may mix with or change to snow before ending to the west, followed by a push of colder air and a drier interlude for much of Sunday. However, another wave of low pressure will rapidly approach from the southwest, and with cold air in place, the chance of snow increases as early as Sunday evening. I’ll watch that for timing/track.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with snow or snow showers – under 1 inch of accumulation. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight, possibly mixed with snow west of I-495. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun. Potential snow by evening. Temperatures steady in 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Snow chance early January 20. Snow chance again at the end of the period. Between these comes a significant shot of cold air with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Cold eases slightly but overall temperatures stay mostly below normal. Another snow or snow shower chance comes around mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A northwesterly air flow brings us blustery and cold but fair weather today and Wednesday. A trough moving through tonight will bring a few clouds and perhaps a brief snow flurry to a few areas. A disturbance moving our way on Thursday will be preceded by a small high pressure area with a less windy day, but clouds move in and a period of light snow showers can occur before a potential heavier snow shower or squall in the evening as a trough passes. High pressure centered well to our southwest will nose in with fair and more tranquil weather Friday, and a cold start will rebound to a milder afternoon that day. While temporary, the mid January warm up will continue Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This will result in a rain shower chance, but those may hold off until late.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder air arrives to start the period and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of snow (may start as rain/mix southeastern areas) late January 19 into January 20. Fair, much colder weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures generally below normal with 1 or 2 opportunities for wintry weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

A wave of low pressure tracks north of our region today, and its warm front moves through early this morning, setting up a mild day in comparison to recent weather. A cold front drops southeastward through the region this evening and may kick off a rain or snow shower as it passes. Slightly colder air filters in behind this for Tuesday, with one more disturbance going by and a secondary trough with a wind shift and even a little colder air moving into the region for Wednesday, but with fair weather that day. Another disturbance traverses the Northeast in a westerly flow and may bring a snow shower on Thursday before a small area of high pressure noses in on Friday with fair weather.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible in the evening. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Changes to the weather pattern get underway, starting with a milder southerly flow for a brief time and a chance of rain at some point on the January 18-19 weekend, then a wind shift with a front going by and colder air moving in. After this we have to watch for waves of low pressure and wintry precipitation chances, the timing and details of which are obviously unknown this far in advance. So, a lot of forecast fine-tuning lies ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Leaning to the cold side for temperatures and at least one wintry weather threat.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

A generally quiet pattern will be with us over this 5-day forecast period, but that doesn’t mean there are not things to discuss – just no big storm systems. Today, a northerly air flow switches to westerly as low pressure to our east moves away and a ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Initially, the northerly flow holds clouds in across Cape Cod and I can’t rule out a couple snow showers over the Outer Cape Cod region through midday, otherwise besides some early morning wave clouds near the Monadnocks, and maybe a few fair weather clouds passing by anywhere during the day, we’ll have sunshine and tolerable temps with not too much wind. The upper flow over the coming several days will be generally westerly, with 2 short-wave troughs moving through (Monday-Tuesday and again Thursday). A surface low associated with the first one will send a warm front through our region late Monday and a cold front later Tuesday. This system will bring some varying amounts of clouds to the region, but only a very low chance of any snow shower activity. Similarly, Thursday’s system will be largely a “dry” passage with only a low snow shower risk. So while several “things” happen the next several days, it’s overall a quiet pattern in terms of sensible weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Lows 16-23. Highs 29-36. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Some changes are ahead for this period as we bring high pressure through the region early in the period then offshore. A more moist southerly air flow precedes a cold front around January 18 that delivers a colder air mass by January 19 and then sets up the opportunity for additional storminess with snow/mix potential January 20-21. There’s a long way to go before this and plenty of time to watch and analyze trends for these unsettled chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

Medium range indications are for more cold weather and a mid period snow chance.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

While a strengthening storm passes well to our south today and misses the region, it has a weaker upper level cousin with weak surface trough to its north, and that is passing through our region giving us a light snow event. However with the help of a developing mesoscale low and mini version of a NORLUN trough (a type of inverted trough that extends out the back side of the low and pivots around it), the snowfall can be enhanced somewhat in areas along the coast and north of Boston, before the system pulls away into the Gulf of Maine by evening. After that, high pressure to our southwest will nose into New England and provide fair, seasonably chilly weather for our region Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, low pressure will pass to our north, sending a cold front through. This may produce a few snow showers, and also kick up the wind with a slightly colder air mass arriving as we head toward the middle of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off in the afternoon but lingering longest north of Boston and along the eastern coastal areas. General accumulation of 1 inch or less south of I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 except 3-5 inches in portions of northern MA,southern NH, and some eastern coastal areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 14-21. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mosttly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 16-23. Highs 29-36. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

An additional round of snow showers from a disturbance in a cold northwesterly air flow early or mid period, then a snow threat presents itself late in the period as the upper flow shifts to southwest and brings moisture this way from the southern US. Long way to go for details…

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

A shot of colder air follows a beginning-of-period snow chance, and another snow opportunity may follow around January 24.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

The wind and cold ease up today as high pressure moves over the region with fair weather and plenty of sun. A deepening low pressure area will pass off the Mid Atlantic Coast and move well south of New England Saturday, while a weaker system to the north, in the form of upper level low pressure with a weak surface low, will bring our region a period of light snowfall. As this system starts to move offshore late in the day and evening, a narrow lobe of moisture in the form of moderate snow showers can pivot southward and clip the NH Seacoast, far eastern MA, and Cape Cod, with an additional small snowfall accumulation over a shorter period of time, so keep this in mind if you have late day or evening plans that include travel. High pressure to the southwest noses its way into the region with fair, seasonably chilly weather and a breeze – but not too windy – Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, a low pressure system from Canada will pass to our north and send a trough and cold front into the region with a snow shower chance, also introducing a surge of colder air with more wind.

TODAY: Sunshine – some high clouds show up during the afternoon hours. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow morning-midday, accumulating 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with additional snow showers favoring eastern coastal areas with an additional 1/2 inch to 1 inch possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 14-21. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mosttly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 16-24. Highs 29-36. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

A stretch of mainly dry weather – maybe a few snow showers from a passing disturbance mid period. Temperatures generally below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

An early period snow/mix threat and another possible late in the period with indications of a more active pattern and continued below normal temperatures. A significant shot of Arctic air is possible mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

The large low pressure area in Atlantic Canada continues to drive cold air into our region on a gusty wind. A disturbance moving through from north to south will cause some snow showers this morning and midday which can result in minor accumulation of snow in some areas, otherwise we stay mainly dry through Friday. Low pressure passes well south of New England Saturday but patches of light snowfall are expected here from a disturbance moving through north of that low from the west. A narrow area of high pressure will bring fair, cold weather for Sunday before another low approaches from the west on Monday with an increase in clouds.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill below 20 often, below 15 at times.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow – accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance / weak low brings a snow shower chance January 14, otherwise a dry and cold pattern much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

Early to mid period snow potential, followed by dry weather. Temperatures below normal, and may include a significant shot of arctic air.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

The cold, mainly dry, windy weather will continue for a few more days thanks to the large low pressure circulation that has taken up residence, for now, in Atlantic Canada. This low also continues to prevent eastward-moving storms from making their way up the coast, and will do so again, sending another one out to our south early in the weekend, while we just get a touch of light snow from a disturbance to its north that it failed to phase with. Prior to that, I still eye the chance of a batch of snow showers that can coat the ground tomorrow in a few spots and a few flurries that may occur today. Behind the Saturday system, I expect fair weather again for Sunday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

A disturbance / weak low brings a snow shower chance about January 14, otherwise a dry and cold pattern much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Mid period snow potential flanked by dry weather. Temperatures generally below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

While the media is in a frenzy about computer model runs, I continue to look at the weather situation from an objective scientific point of view, and today’s prognostication will look a lot like the one posted 24 hours prior. The theme for today through midweek is cold, dry, and breezy / windy, on the back side of a large low pressure circulation in Atlantic Canada – part of a large scale blocking pattern that has been steering storms to our south and then collecting their remnants in a giant whirlpool of air to our northeast. This continues, with largely dry weather for our region. While I can’t rule out a passing snow flurry today and Wednesday, a trough coming around the back side of the aforementioned low pressure area enhances the snow shower chance on Thursday, and we’ll have to monitor these for the potential of delivering some minor accumulation to portions of the region. Behind this, a gusty northerly breeze continues Friday, but that day should be absent of snow shower chances. Now to “day 5”, a day that has been overly focused on too far in advance because of computerized atmospheric simulations, some of which have shown an epic snowstorm – and the vast majority of which have not, but have been often ignored in the name of hype, views, and clicks. Well, keeping it real, yes there is a “threat” of a storm system of some kind as we get to the weekend. There will be a storm system coming out of the South and heading for the Mid Atlantic Coast, and another “piece of energy” in the form of a trough swinging our way via the Great Lakes. Both of these are likely to be impacted by the blocking pattern in place, which will have shifted barely enough to allow the Atlantic Canada low to nudge eastward, but not far enough to exert its influence on the southern system, which is more likely than not to begin missing the region to the south, or maybe grazing our region’s southern reaches, during Saturday, while what remains of the northern energy brings us a snow shower threat. Obvious monitoring and refining of this outlook as necessary, and I’ll speak of it as needed in the comments and more thoroughly on tomorrow’s post.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible with potential dustings. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

Clouds and snow showers can linger into the late weekend (January 12), otherwise looks like more dry and cold weather on tap heading into next week – maybe a snow shower threat mid period period with a disturbance in the northwesterly air flow (about January 14).

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Mid to late period snow potential but highly uncertain scenario. Temperatures generally below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

Low pressure with a storied past (lots of winter weather across the country) passes south of New England today, and while its cloud shield will spend some time over our sky, its snow area will miss to the south, outside of a few stray flakes that may sprinkle themselves over the South Coast region. This moves away tonight and as the low heads into Atlantic Canada to be absorbed by the quasi-stationary low pressure circulation there, it will serve to keep us cold, dry, and windy through midweek, with no more than a few stray snow showers wandering across our winter-dry landscape. Friday, high pressure edges a bit closer and the low in Atlantic Canada slightly loosens its grip, so we’ll have less wind that day, but dry weather again.

TODAY: Early morning bright sky and some sun far eastern areas, and the process of clearing starts toward the end of the day with a nice sunset potential for part of the region, but between generally an overcast sky. Touch of light snow possible South Coast for a brief time. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing light snow shower possible. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

Storm passes by to our south during the January 11-12 weekend with highest odds of a miss from it, medium odds of a South Coast graze, and lowest odds of a more widespread impact. Another disturbance going by to the north may produce some light snow or snow showers in the region at some point. Dry, cold weather follows this early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Early to mid period snow potential but highly uncertain scenario. Temperatures generally below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Our cold and dry regime goes on. A westerly air flow continues today, and shifts a bit more northerly tonight into Monday as a low pressure wave going by to our south alters the pressure gradient and resulting air flow. This low will be “close-but-no-cigar” in terms of bringing some snow to the region, passing harmlessly to the south with the maximum impact being a few tiny snowflakes reaching the ground along the immediate South Coast. Behind it, a renewed and more northerly wind will transport more cold into our region from Canada through midweek. It is during this period when some snow showers can migrate down from the north in response to an upper level disturbance moving through.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: A cloudy start – thickest clouds South Coast where a touch of very light snow is possible, then thinning and decreasing clouds midday on. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Dry to start the period, and again to end it. The January 11-12 weekend bears watching for a potential snow threat as low pressure passes by to the south, but at the moment I lean toward a graze or a near-miss from the system. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Colder than normal with mainly dry weather, but watch for a few snow showers and perhaps one possible snow threat at mid period.