DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
Blocking continues, but shifts a little to allow low pressure to the south to press northward the next few days. This throws a cloud shield into our region, still initially battling dry air but finally to win out over it tonight. The now shorter-term question to answer is the northern extent of the rain shield and the amount of rain that falls. While some shorter range guidance has trended a little wetter, but not consistently run-to-run, I am still reluctant to jump on that bandwagon and go for a more solid rain event, other than perhaps the South Coast region. The radar may look impressive for a while as the shield works its way into the I-90 belt and even a bit north, but this will still be up against a rebuilding dry high pressure area in eastern Canada, and a squeeze-play will be on. The dry air can significantly cut back on how much rain survives / makes it to the ground in the northern portion of the precipitation shield. We see this in winter events too when trying to forecast snowfall amounts in a similar synoptic set-up. So other than prolonging the impact of this low through Thursday, and into part of Friday, my forecast isn’t changing drastically regarding its impact. Another aspect of this situation will be a gusty northeasterly wind combined with astronomically high tides, which will lead to several high tide cycles of splash-over and some minor inundation in prone locations. Be aware of this if you live in or are traveling to coastal areas the next few days. As we get into the weekend, the dry air wins out again, and while we still may see a fair amount of clouds Saturday, the sun will become more dominant with time Saturday through Sunday, and it will be rain-free, but breezy at first, and quite a bit cooler than we’ve been in recent days. Autumn arrives with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday.
TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning. Limited sun – clouds eventually thicken from south to north later. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain, again greatest chance from the I-90 belt southward. Lows 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain potential continues especially morning and mostly south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Dry, cool start then moderation. Watch for another push of low pressure from the south and west with a potential rain threat around the middle of next week before drier weather returns.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)
Overall pattern still looks dry with high pressure in control most of the time. A cooler push earlier in the period, then some moderation again.