DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)
Cold front #1 went by last night and will knock us back about 10 degrees off yesterday’s relatively mild high temps. An arctic cold front will move through by this evening and knock double that amount and even a bit more off our high temp expectations for Saturday – the coldest day of the winter so far. Other than the potential for a snow shower or squall with the passage of the arctic boundary, we’ll have dry weather through Saturday, but more wind, which leads to especially low wind chill values on Saturday before winds ease up later in the day. We’ll have a mix of sun and “mostly” fair weather clouds today, other than the ones that would produce the snow showers later. Saturday we’ll see sun eventually filtered by high clouds in advance of the winter storm that is going to impact our region Sunday into Monday. Since my last update, I’ve been watching guidance trends on this system, and have noted a slight northward trend still, enough to introduce the chance of some sleet mixing into the South Coast region during the second half of the storm and a little mid level dry slot cutting off or diminishing the precipitation a few hours earlier than a track slightly further south. So far this only has a fairly minor impact on the expectations for snowfall, but is still obviously worth monitoring as we continue to get closer to the event. I still expect elongated low pressure to pass relatively close to the “benchmark” (40N/70W) to our south Sunday night and early Monday. As it moves away, lingering snow or snow showers can last through a good portion of Monday, but the bulk of the snowfall accumulation should occur between early evening the very early morning hours of Monday, based on current timing. Post-storm, we can expect a blustery, cold, but dry day on Tuesday in a northwesterly air flow between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day snow shower or snow squall possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a potential snow shower or snow squall early, then clear. Lows 2-9. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 13-20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills below 10.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 3-10. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast between mid morning and early afternoon. Temperatures slowly rise to 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod by late-day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times through midnight, tapering off in intensity overnight. Snow may mix with or change to sleet near the South Coast especially Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 18-25 but can rise to 26-33 South Coast / Cape Cod and potentially as far north as the MA South Shore. Wind NE 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Islands, NE to N 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow or flurries. Total storm accumulation expectation is 10 to 16 inches, but pockets of 16 to 22 inches are possible, and areas of under 10 inches are possible mainly Cape Cod / Islands, pending the impact of potential sleet. Temperatures remain generally steady or fall slightly. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering snow flurry possible. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)
A passing disturbance may bring a few snow showers January 28. Watching for the next potential storm in the January 30 to February 1 time frame. Temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Another potential winter weather threat around February 5 in a still active and cold weather pattern.