Thursday December 11 2025 Forecast (6:50AM)

134 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Cold air returns to the region today with active winds, a sun/cloud mix, and perhaps a few snow showers from the combination of cold air advection and limited Great Lakes moisture traveling into our region. Active wind continues tonight into Friday with dry weather and below normal temperatures, but a ridge of high pressure building in will help diminish the wind later Friday and Saturday with continued dry weather. A clipper low will travel just south of our region Sunday, and its interaction with a little energy passing by to our north will determine whether we see just a few snow showers or a more notable period of snow. I’m leaning toward the latter, with the best chance of accumulating snow being from the I-90 belt southward for Sunday – maybe a mix on the Outer Cape / Islands due to marginal temperatures there. Regardless of the solidity of the snow shield, this system exits and leads reinforcing cold into our region for Monday, and the wind will be back again at that time.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow showers mainly in the afternoon. Highs 32-39 this morning followed by a slow but steady decline. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, but gusting 25-45 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry in the evening. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, gradually diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18 except 18-25 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Highs 25-32 except 28-35 South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes by the middle of next week with a quick shot of milder air here, then we enter an up-and-down temperature pattern with another small system bringing a chance of precipitation later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)

From the winter solstice to Christmas Day, the pattern can’t be forecast with high confidence, and there is still a lot of uncertainty with guidance inconsistencies, but my current leaning is milder than December has been but not persistently mild – more up and down temps and mostly minor precipitation events with a lot of detail to work out as we get closer to this period of time.

134 thoughts on “Thursday December 11 2025 Forecast (6:50AM)”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 4

    I’m with you on the latter scenario and I think this has some similar set-up to the Thanksgiving morning rain that deposited a half inch of rain in SE Mass and measurable all the way into southern NH ? Just a ripple on a temp boundary that ended up 30-50 miles further north and the models didn’t get it correct until 12 hrs out.

    Reply

    1. Thank you Tom as you shared what I was looking for…
      Yes, that is an excellent example, but how does one know???? At this point, as much as I like snow, I think I’d rather it not. I don’t want snow messing with Drake Maye and his receivers.

      Reply

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    35 here

    Local Ocean temps not available. Got one off coast of Maine at 46. I assum we’re still at 47.

    I am skeptical about snow for Sunday as models now keep it all South. Wonder what TK sees. Let’s see what today’s runs show. Watch them all come back North. 😉 🙂 🙂

    Wordle: 3

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  7. Hopefully we get some accumulating festive snow on Sunday. I guess it now appears that there won’t be any snow for Christmas, not even on the ground. 🙁 ❄️

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  8. Thanks, TK.

    As I thought would happen, when the relative warmth began a few weeks ago across a massive swath of Europe (we’re talking rather incredibly anomalous warmth that’s impacting many countries), spring flowers and blossoms are popping up across England and the low countries. The extended period of mild temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future. While Dutch forecasters see subtle changes 10 days ahead or so which may cool things down a bit towards more normal temps, they judge the chance of that happening at 50%.

    Europe is the fastest warming continent – about twice as fast as other continents – which could explain why the climate is seen there as a (daily) headline issue in ways it is not here. While we generally measure rates of change in rather small increments that are hard to tell apart from year to year, the winters there have trended much warmer over the past 40 years. The graphics the KNMI (Dutch meteorological institute) posts are quite remarkable.

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    1. Makes some sense.

      If the cold has been successful working its way south on our side of the hemisphere, then sometimes, in balance, its usually found much further north on the other side of the hemisphere.

      Reply

    2. It’s funny. I have now seen 7 separate articles stating all 7 continents are “fastest warming”. Six of them have to be incorrect.

      Wish I saved them all.

      Reply

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2025121106&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    One of the keys, I think, to Sunday is that 510 dm upper low north of the western Great Lakes. Its going to be moving east-southeastward into southeast Canada and how it evolves and where it sets up will determine how fast the next shot of cold air gets in here, which will determine where the temp gradient sets up, which will affect where the ripple of low pressure travels along. All determined by the direction of the flow above us at 500 mb.

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  10. Tom, to your point, if a Scandinavian area of high pressure builds – which Dutch forecasters say could happen in 10-14 days – this usually means colder and dryer weather in Northwestern Europe while it gets milder and wetter here. But, as my Dutch met friends say, there’s a lot of uncertainty around the staying power of such a high (could be quite temporary so that it’s over in a few days) and just how much cold it would transport. There’s been plenty of cold to transport in the North American continent. That has not been the case over there. It’s mild to even frankly warm in places across Eastern Europe where it normally isn’t. The Scandinavian high brings in an easterly wind component (by the way, this is by far the least prevalent wind direction in England and the low countries). Right now, there’s little to no cold due east of London, for perhaps up to a couple thousand kilometers.

    Reply

  12. 12Z NAM is back on track for Sunday!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025121112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour snow at 7PM Sunday and STILL snowing in Eastern sections

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025121112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    500 mb just ahead of system

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2025121112&fh=75&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    As you can see with this 500mb, no way it would slide South of us.

    Here’s the 200mb

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=200wh&rh=2025121112&fh=75&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

    1. Not bad at all considering you were totally lost!!!

      This may be the first time I have ever been the engineer!!
      At least so far today. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Awesome JPD. Other Thsnk sue and I think SClarke we are mostly in single cars. I’d say let me know if you need assistance but I’d be far more risky 😉

        Reply

  17. Thanks Tk . In my opinion Sundays game is massive ( take division with win ) I think having snow is a disadvantage to NE & huge advantage to Buffalo, Buffalo just had a snow game last Sunday & has more experience in snow games , Not saying pat’s can’t win it playing in inclement weather conditions.

    Reply

    1. I agree with that assessment, but as you said, it does NOT mean the PATs will loose! It would HELP if the Patriots had a running game. If I see one more run up the middle STUFFED at the line of scrimage, I am afraid there will be a busted up televison set!!!!

      Reply

  19. These graze solutions are just where we want to be 60 hrs out.

    The models never have it exactly right 60 hrs out with the upper flow. They are always making small changes inside of 60 hrs, which is all it will take here.

    The one thing that would be bad here is at 60 hrs if there were model concensus on a hit of 2-4 inches. I guarantee there would be a small change that would make that NOT happen.

    Reply

    1. To clarify …. its not the models, in making that small change, are changing the weather. Its that they can’t simulate what is going to happen correctly, until they are really close to the event. In a smaller scale event like this one, that can be a very impactful change.

      Reply

  25. I’m still of the mindset of snow Sunday.

    Dusting-1 inch in the Merrimack Valley west-southwestward to Northern Worcester County.

    1-3 inches Boston west-southwestward to Worcester

    2-4 south of (Boston to Worcester) to the south coast, with a narrow 3-5 inch band maybe Plymouth, MA to Providence, RI

    And back to a coating – 2 inches on Nantucket and MV due to temps near or just above 32F.

    Of course, the bust here is if it slides further south as many, but not all models are showing.

    Reply

    1. Very nice. And we know the pats can handle snow even if they are not quite as used to it as the bills. I’m planning my game menu as I type

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  31. Philip, the UK in UKMET does indeed stand for United Kingdom. It’s Britain’s national weather and climate service.

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  32. On days like today, the brisk feel is much more acute on the Boston side of the Charles river than the Cambridge side. On my lovely run today – nothing better than a stiff coldish breeze – it felt quite brisk in Boston. But after crossing the BU bridge to the Cambridge side, there wasn’t as much wind and with fewer trees the bright sun made it feel comfortable.

    Reply

  33. WARNING. WARNING. JPD PLEASE SKIP

    the temp is the same as yesterday but the stiff breeze makes it feel colder. Don’t mind, just resorted to a sweatshirt rather than a long sleeve tee until temps are more settle.

    Reply

    1. Yes, I know. I’ve already been out and am about to walk down to the Post Office to mail Christmas cards. 🙂
      The temperature is what it is. No big deal!!! YES, the wind makes it feel colder, but we ALL know that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

      1. Walk was fine, 1/2 mile down and 1/2 mile back. Very nice out. Yes, a bit on the windy side, but wasn’t bad at all.

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    1. It would probably be a wise idea to keep this event in proper perspective or you’ll just set yourself up to be disappointed. It’s fast, moisture-deprived, and flat. If we get what I’m expecting, that’s maximizing the potential.

      Reply

  35. I have not paid much attention to it, but starting to see stories from the state of Washington in the Pacific Northwest, of some severe river flooding.

    Reply

    1. Jet stream has been cranking an avenue of moisture into that region without much change the last several days.

      Reply

    2. I posted a link to thst yesterday. I’m shocked that with the mess there it took so long for media to grab it. Mac has a cousin whose home overlooks the Luger sounds and another family friend who lives on Mercer island

      Reply

  36. Afternoon all!

    Current thoughts…

    -Patriots: Weather impacts both teams the same. Nobody has an advantage. Whichever team plays a better game will win it. Vegas favors the Bills. No surprise there. I trust Vegas forecasting games between 2 good teams as much as I trust a basement media-ologist “forecasting” the weather for the next day, nevermind the winter. 😉

    -Weather: No real changes . The expected snow showers are about. There is a very narrow west-to-east band that is mostly just light flurries to the north of I-90. Looking ahead a bit, I’m right on the time-edge of when I start talking about numbers for an upcoming snow event, and my preliminary idea for the Sunday system is a coating to 2 inches north of I-90 and 2 to 4 inches from I-90 southward, with the greatest chance of 3+ being in the Plymouth to Providence corridor. After a couple more cold surges, we’ll start to see a see-saw battle of the MJO (weak phase 8) and the IOD trying to go positive, and this will trigger a pretty wild roller-coaster temp pattern starting around December 18. but over the stretch, it’s the cold that’s going to win out for New England. As for precipitation chances, I’m working on that and will talk more about it soon.

    Reply

      2. Somewhere between 48 & 72 hours is my first call typically. The event will be over in 72 hours, so I’m inside that window already.

        Reply

  37. 18Z NAM would pretty much have the snow done by game time

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025121118&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    earlier

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025121118&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025121118&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025121112&fh=87&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam

    Another SHIFT SOUTH)!(@#*(*@!()*#)(!*@#()*!@)(#*)(!@

    Reply

  38. I went out today and I felt fine. I didn’t even wear gloves and my hands were not cold at all.

    Just wear a sweater, winter coat and knit hat and you’ll be fine. I was somewhat hesitant to go but I’m glad I did. I had to go to the post office to mail a package and pick up a book of stamps.

    Just my opinion but the media makes a bit too much of cold airmasses in general. Enough with the “feels like” and “wind chill”.

    Of course having said all that, it was a mostly sunny day today which helps considerably.

    Reply

    1. The temp has been slowly falling all day with wind gusts in the 35-45 MPH range. The wind chill is quite noticeable today.

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  40. It’s time for that often needed reminder. When you’re forecasting snowfall, it’s important not to forget about the melted to frozen ratio for multiple reasons.

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  41. RRFS currently depicts a snowfall of about 2 inches for Boston, 2-4 inches Plymouth to Providence, and less to the north.

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  42. Fabulous sunset here at Woods Hill. This was not a widely seen one, however, because it was based on a cumulus cloud street from the Great Lakes that’s rather narrow and only reflecting sunlight in a limited area.

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  47. Hopefully Sunday there will be measurable snowfall for Boston. A measly trace so far.

    And there is still the other bugaboo.

    1,375 ❄️

    No doubt now that the “streak” will continue for the remainder of 2025 and who knows how long into New Year 2026. Boston is setting snowfall records all over the place for all the WRONG reasons! 🙁

    Reply

    3. Also, it’s December 11. How can you say there’s “no doubt” the streak will continue through December 31?

      We can’t forecast accurately that far in advance. I thought I’d mentioned that enough times now for it to be common knowledge.

      Reply

  49. In terms of the Sunday event, I think snow showers north of the pike up to 2 inches in spots.
    with 1-3 inches south with pockets of higher amounts in interior SE mass.

    I hear about the warm up but I don’t think New England gets into the real warmth. 40s max in southern New England. The MJO forecasts are in the weak circle area for the next week but after goes into phase 7 most like and could go into phase 8 and 1 come January which are highly favorable to winter weather for the NE. latest euro says literally after Xmas the cold comes roaring back in. Question would be if we can get a more favorable trough tilt or is it the same as we have been seeing as of late, but I feel we get a handful of opportunities come January. The south and plains certainly look warm for Xmas week but we are going to be near that boundry. I think this winter will go where the MJO takes us

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    1. Oh also in terms of the Patriots, I have seen some concerns when it comes to Drake Maye playing in inclement weather. His passes are not as good. It doesn’t fly like Brady’s did in the bad weather. So I hope they are getting him ready with cold wet slushy footballs at practice

      Reply

        1. The Bills started as 1.5 point favorites and are now a 1 point favorite. (Might not sound like much but it is a 33% drop. Sports bettors understand this.)

          The game is essentially a pick ’em so we will see. I actually believe the Pats might be in the playoffs with the 11 wins they have.

          As for Sunday, most of us will hear that it’s just a question of who wants it more. The reality might be which team makes the least mistakes.

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      2. They also need to come out strong . I’ve noticed over the years after time off , they come out sluggish if you will . Should be a great game & Buffalo will be looking for revenge after they got spanked by the pats at home .

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  52. Will we get a direct discharge of cold from southeast Canada? Could this happen after the holidays or sooner? Lots of very cold air up there.

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    1. Strength of MJO & IOD are the 2 greatest keys.

      My meteorological inkling: The advertised warm up will be shorter lived than one would be lead to believe, and will be knocked down with a punch every time it tries to rise.

      Reply

  53. Bigger picture take on the Bills and Josh Allen ….

    His path to the Super Bowl this year won’t have Mahomes, Burrow and maybe even Lamar Jackson.

    With no disrespect to Drake Maye and the Pats or Bo Nix and the Broncos and all the other AFC teams, he HAS TO get to the Super Bowl this year. The field is cleared for him. And as amazing as Drake Maye’s ascension has been, he is not at the level of Josh Allen and it’s not fair to expect him to be.

    And yes, of course I’m rooting for the Patriots. 🙂

    Reply

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