7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
We get to this final day of March with no big surprises or big changes to the forecast. We’re in the warm sector to start the day, and as mentioned many times the southerly air flow is a cooler air flow for places closer to and along the South Coast, or any south-facing shores, as the air passes over much cooler water before arriving there. We will end today with the arrival of a colder air mass from the west, and the band of rain showers along the boundary will push west to east across the region this afternoon, exiting early this evening. For the start of April, we’ll be back into much cooler air and will have to watch for an offshore storm to be close enough to possibly bring a period of precipitation Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This system should be a fairly quick mover, and if it does impact the region, it will be very short-lived. A weak area of high pressure will move in with fair weather at midweek, but an upper disturbance may kick off some cloudiness at times especially Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible eastern areas early, then clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible favoring southern and eastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring Cape Cod early, then clearing. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Current expected timing of systems would bring low pressure from the Ohio Valley to New England April 5-6 with a period of wet weather likely late April 5 to early April 6 in southern New England. Fair with a brief warm-up April 7, then high pressure from eastern Canada bringing cooler weather April 8 before it quickly warms again at the end of the period with mostly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
Passing frontal systems about April 10 and 12 or 13 with minor bouts of unsettled weather otherwise mainly dry with typical up and down temperatures heading toward the middle of the month.

9:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
The final weekend of March is a lesson in putting too much stock into forecasts several days in advance. Some of them would have had you believe it was a lock beach-style weekend. Even my own forecast hinted at 70+. I put caveats in, maybe not strongly enough. As the days went on we were looking at 2 “usual suspects” that appear this time of year, one being a frontal boundary from the north and the other being the ocean’s influence. Both come into play in at least delaying some warmth and modifying some temperatures. The second of the two was never in doubt. The first, in doubt initially, was something fine-tuned through the week. And the running forecast the last couple of days heading toward this weekend depicted a scenario that will be reasonably close to what happens. The third wildcard regarding the weekend was the timing of a cold front from the west on Sunday. Later timing, warmer with later showers. Earlier timing, a wetter day and turning much cooler. It turns out the answer is really somewhere in between those. It’ll start out mild, showers won’t rush in, but they will arrive later, and we will see a temperature drop-off before the day is over from west to east. So you see, sometimes weather forecasting is pretty simple, like forecasting a sunny day with light wind and a sea breeze the other day with high pressure atop the region, and sometimes it’s nothing like that, with many players to take into account. Once we get beyond this, the first 3 days of April will showcase the forecast contrast yet again, with an easy chilly/dry Monday forecast then a more complex and uncertain outlook for later Tuesday and Wednesday as we monitor the evolution of an offshore storm that likely gets close enough to at least put its cloud shield over the area, and may be close enough to at least graze the region with its precipitation shield as well, and that precipitation shield may be occurring with air cold enough to support something other than just rain. So it’ll be time to get the fine-tuning knobs ready once again. Spring in New England!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, gradually becoming partly cloudy from south to north. Highs 54-71, coolest South Coast, warmest interior valleys, but warmest readings not being reached in northern areas until late day. Wind light E gradually shifting to S and SW increasing to 5-15 MPH from south to north.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible eastern areas early, then clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible favoring southern and eastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)
Current expected timing of systems would bring an upper disturbance across the region with some cloudiness April 4, a small area of high pressure with fair and milder weather April 5, a low pressure area with unsettled weather April 6, improving and milder weather April 7, and a front from the north with a chill-down April 8.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)
Expecting some up and down temperatures with fair weather to start and end the period and some unsettled weather in between.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
A few minor tweaks being made to this forecast, the most notable one being to slow the timing of the return of the front that passes as a cold front today moving back tonight and Saturday as a warm front. It may take until the end of the day for that front to completely get itself back to the north and everyone into the warm sector, so this will happen lastly in northeastern MA and southern NH later Saturday. A cold front crosses the region later Sunday, which itself will be a fairly mild day until nightfall. As April gets underway, we’ll be back in the chill, and we will be watching a storm south of the region by late Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 44-51. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, gradually becoming partly cloudy from south to north. Highs 50-65, coolest South Coast, but warmest readings not being reached in northern areas until late day. Wind light E gradually shifting to S and SW increasing to 5-15 MPH from south to north.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible eastern areas early, then clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to E.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)
Offshore storm may be close enough to bring some precipitation early in the period. A disturbance from the west brings cloudiness and a slight precipitation threat about April 6. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)
Although the upper air pattern looks warm the surface pattern may have other ideas and keep it much more seasonable to even at times cool. A couple bouts of unsettled weather are possible during this period.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
High pressure sinks south of the region today and a cold front approaches and sort-of passes through tonight into Friday, coming to a stop somewhere over or just south of the region before retreating back to the north later Friday and Saturday. This should be possible as the high to the south will be a little stronger than the one to the north, and in many cases when we see the cold air win out, this time the warmer air should. But all the usual caveats are still there: Eastern coastal areas may take a little longer to warm, southern coastal areas will be much cooler as a south or southwest wind is onshore there. Regardless, a stronger cold front will be coming in from the west on Sunday, and again its exact timing will help determine temperature and any rain threat. Still leaning toward most of the day being on the warmer side and shower activity being limited. A band of scattered showers may form ahead of the main front earlier in the day with the main band of rain showers waiting until later with the front itself. Will fine-tune these details the next few days. By Monday, the first of April, it may feel a bit like winter again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52 evening, may rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs ranging from 48-55 South Coast to 56-63 interior southern areas to 64-71 most other areas with a few warmer readings possible interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers possible any time. General showers likely from west to east later. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible eastern areas early, then clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)
Temperatures below normal much of this period. Watching for an ocean storm early period that may brush or graze the area with rain/mix/snow then more unsettled weather is possible both April 4 and 6 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)
Nearby boundary results in uncertain and low confidence temperature and weather forecast but for now continuing the same idea of leaning toward near to below normal temperatures with at least a couple bouts of potential unsettled weather. That said, not seeing a signal for an excessively wet period of weather either.

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
A chilly start, a warm-up, and a quick chill-down during these final 5 days of March. High pressure controls the weather to start this period, being overhead today which starts cold but feels reasonably comfortable by later morning on with strong late March sun and light wind. As high pressure slips to the south, a warm-up begins Thursday and nearly gets thwarted Friday as a cold front moves into the region, but this front does not have a lot of push with it and will basically run out of gas and then be pushed back to the north later Friday. The maximum part of the warm-up will be Saturday when we’re in the strongest southwesterly flow, but this wind will keep the South Coast cool as the air will be coming right off the chilly ocean. The timing of a cold front approaching from the west is key for Sunday’s weather and temperature, with guidance ranging from early day to late day on the front’s timing. Been leaning later the last few days and will continue to do this for now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52 evening, may rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs ranging from 48-55 South Coast to 56-63 interior southern areas to 64-71 most other areas with a few warmer readings possible interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)
A much cooler start to April. The wildcard is whether or not there will be any storminess or it will be largely dry. Need to watch a wave of low pressure to the south that may evolve into an ocean storm south to southeast of the region. Whether or not it gets close enough to bring rain and possibly mix/snow remains to be seen. If that system is far enough offshore, we may warm up right at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
We’ll be near a boundary, so neither the weather nor the temperature forecast can be made with high confidence at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of normal for temperatures with a couple precipitation threats. Even though the upper air pattern looks warmer, the surface pattern says “eh, not so much” with wind from cooler north and east more often than milder south and west.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)
High pressure will be in control of the weather the next few days, with southern New England starting out on the cold side of it today, right under it Wednesday, and on the milder side of it by Thursday. A cold front will move into the region from the northwest Thursday night and run out of gas over the area early Friday before shifting back to the north later Friday, and as high pressure strengthens a bit more to the southeast versus a weaker one to the north, the warmer air should win out later Friday through Saturday, with ocean-modified areas being cooler based on wind direction, which coming from the south and southwest, would have greatest impact on the South Coast area.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Some cloudiness South Coast region early otherwise sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52 evening, may rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs ranging from 48-55 South Coast to 56-63 interior southern areas to 64-71 most other areas with a few warmer readings possible interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
Watching the timing of a cold front from the west March 31, leaning toward a mild to warm day overall with rain showers holding off until later. Fair, much cooler April 1. Watch for a passing storm to produce rain/mix/snow sometime April 2 to early April 3, another system with mix/rain showers later April 3 to early April 4 as temperatures run mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)
We’ll be near a boundary, so neither the weather nor the temperature forecast can be made with high confidence at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of normal for temperatures with a couple precipitation threats.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
A cold front is moving through the region without any fanfare, just cloudiness, early this morning and will set up a dry but chilly first few days of the week, followed by a warming trend later in the week as high pressure, which arrives from Canada early in the week, finds its way southeast of the region by late in the week. By late Friday though, we’ll have a cold front approaching from the northwest… Forecast details…
TODAY: Limited sun with lots of clouds morning. Increasing sun north to south midday on. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
The March 30-31 weekend temperatures will depend on the position of a front nearby. For now I’m leaning toward the region being on the warmer side of it and staying with the ongoing forecast but it likely won’t be a totally sunny weekend, and a slight shift east and south of the position of that boundary will result in a vastly different temperature profile in the region. Much cooler air should be here to start April and there may be a period of rain which may end as snow April 1 with a slow clearing trend after.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
We’ll be near a boundary, so neither the weather nor the temperature forecast can be made with high confidence at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of normal for temperatures but limited precipitation.

8:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)
Quick update this morning. High pressure southwest of the region delivers milder air today. A cold front drops through from north to south early Monday returning cold air to the region early in the week, with a slow recovery in temperatures beginning during midweek as high pressure from Canada sinks slowly southward through the period and keeps it dry. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a slight risk of brief light rain. Clearing north to south mid morning on. Sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52 early then falling back through the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
High pressure southeast of the region will result in above to much above normal temperatures March 29-31 based on current expecting timing of the next front from the west. Ocean-influenced areas will obviously have modified temperatures. It should turn much cooler and somewhat unsettled in the first couple days of April with a front moving through and low pressure moving in. Too early for details on that.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)
Cooler weather for the early days of April with a couple periods of unsettled weather likely.

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)
A little spring surprise for some locations in southern New England, namely central CT which had a persistent and fairly heavy band of overnight snow dump up to around 6 inches of snow over a fairly small elevated area. In one of those events nearly impossible to accurately forecast, we had a nearly stationary band held in place as it tried to move east by an expanding low pressure circulation hundreds of miles away, enhanced by an upper level disturbance and some lower level convergence not very well forecast by guidance, in at atmosphere slightly colder than forecast, at a higher elevations, and occurring during the dark hours instead of March daylight, which would have pretty much cut it in half, if not more. So there you have it. The rest of the region pretty much came in as expected, but the 1-3 inch amounts in higher elevations of northern RI, central MA, and southern NH was a late addition to my forecast after the initial wording that did not include numbers. In any case, with the exception of the areas that had over 3 inches, just about all of the snow will be vanishing during the day today and any left will be a memory by the middle of the day tomorrow, although today’s weather may not feel too much like snow melting weather as it will be blustery and chilly and even though we start out with lots of cloudiness and lingering snow showers, eventually dry air will work in and sun will increase. The expected warm-up for Sunday will occur but it will still be on the breezy side, though not nearly as windy as today is. Looking ahead, the cold front expected for Monday which had uncertain timing appears that it will be occurring on the earlier side, so the mildest part of the day will be very early and then the temperature should go down. It doesn’t look like the front will carry much more than cloudiness and just some light rain activity with it, and it will be well south of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday keeping any storminess moving along it from reaching this area, helped out by Canadian high pressure which will bring dry but chilly weather. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering but diminishing snow showers with little additional accumulation. Increasing sun afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW to W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH this morning, diminishing slightly this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH, diminishing slightly overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered light rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 45-52 early then falling back through the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
High pressure shifts south and southeast of New England and allows a warmer southwesterly air flow with fair weather and temperatures warming to above normal March 28-30, into March 31 but will have to watch for an approaching cold front from the west by then for its timing and potential to bring rain showers. It will be cooler in typical areas (Cape Cod, South Coast). By April Fools day, expect cooler conditions and a return to fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)
Cooler weather for the early days of April with a couple periods of unsettled weather likely.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
Low pressure crosses southern New England this morning then heads through Maine and into eastern Canada this afternoon and tonight, and really expands through the Maritimes Saturday, doing that typical early spring kind of thing, pulling cold air out of Canada along with producing plenty of wind. So our wet weather of this morning will be replaced with rain to snow showers tonight and early Saturday, then eventual clearing. This will lead to a much nicer second half of the weekend as high pressure slides southwest of the region and pushes milder air into the region. But this will be very short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada and turn Monday into an upside down temperature day along with at least lots of cloudiness and some potential precipitation, and finally a dry and cold day Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain, and some higher elevation mix/snow briefly, tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Highs 40-47. Wind backing from E to N to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible, generally patchy coating to 1 inch amounts but 1-3 inch amounts in higher elevations of northern RI, central MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
Look for mainly dry weather and a warming trend with temperatures starting the period near to below normal and peaking at much above normal around March 29 or 30 before a cold front knocks them back to near normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
A cooler first few days of April with unsettled weather possible early and again late in the period.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
So now it’s spring. And spring has a reputation around here. Yes, there can be nice days, but there are many not-so-nice days, and sometimes a whole lot of them, depending on the particular weather pattern. I’m not going to speculate about spring beyond the next 5 days right in this space right now, but what I will say is these 5 days will show you a nice sample platter of the variety of both March and spring in New England. It starts with an approaching cold front today but this front will never quite make it here, at least as it is. Since we have now figured out that the low pressure area about to come up the coast is not the one that some of the guidance was originally forecasting to do it, as that is traveling hundreds of miles southeast of the region at this time, but an inverted trough that formed near the Southeast Coast and hung around long enough for some upper level support to come along and ignite it. And while this won’t be a major storm system as it continues to develop and pass over the region tonight and Friday, once it gets beyond our region, it will develop into a pretty strong storm, expanding in coverage, so the slug of rain it brings to us tonight in its formative stages won’t be around long, but once it gets far enough away and we get into the expanding wind field on the back side, we will see colder air, some rain to snow showers, and more importantly some decent wind Friday night through Saturday. The bluster of March will be in full force on Saturday. But how quickly things can turn around, and they will, when that storm pulls far enough away and high pressure slides to the southwest of New England, a milder westerly air flow will arrive and Sunday will be a nice spring day, especially by March standards. But alas, did you think that was going to hang around? Well it may, into at least part of Monday, and that will depend on the speed of another cold front dropping south southeastward out of Canada, which will return much colder air to the region again by late Monday at the latest. Sometimes these fronts end up faster than initial guidance tries to have you believe, so the vague wording below will indicate my uncertainty here. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving south to north, may be heavy for a while. Slight risk of thunder. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast where minor flooding is possible.
FRIDAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
More of the March and spring variety will be on display, especially in the temperature department. Low pressure should pass south of the region, kept there by a cold Canadian high pressure area to start the period, with temperatures starting out below to much below normal. This will be followed by a warming trend which may see the end of the period much warmer than normal with high pressure along the East Coast and a strong southwesterly air flow. It may be that some areas that are stuck in the 30s on March 26 are above 70 by March 30.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A transition back to cooler weather to end March and start April, probably with a couple bouts of unsettled weather as well.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
High pressure dominates and gives a nice March day for the final hours of winter, leading to the Vernal Equinox, or the arrival of spring, at 5:58PM. Today’s V.E. also coincides with the Full Worm Moon, the first time the 2 have done this in 38 years (1981), and the last time it will happen for 19 more (2030). We will eek out another rather decent day Thursday as the evolution of what is upcoming is slower to occur than thought just a couple days ago. I am going to re-post a link posted on the last blog in which the NWS explains the synoptic situation very nicely, as pointed out by one of the readers, who is an impressive young meteorologist himself. But in short, what’s going to happen is a cold front moving in from the west will have a semi-merger with a developing low pressure area down the coast, bringing a slug of rain through the region Thursday night. As the low intensifies and expands while exiting New England via eastern Canada, it will drag colder air in on its back side and create the typical March bluster which will take until Friday night to really set in, and linger through Saturday, which will remind you that we are not that far out of winter, and can still feel its effects into early spring easily. By Sunday, the low will have moved away to lose influence and high pressure passing south of the region will bring a milder westerly air flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 except a bit cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, possibly briefly heavy. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 10-20 MPH. Minor coastal flooding possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W, moderate and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind W, light to moderate.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
A mild start and cold finish March 25 as a cold front drops down from the north and may bring a period of rain which ends as mix/snow. Fair/chilly March 26-27 as high pressure drifts down from Canada keeping additional storminess to the south of the region. Early idea is for continued mainly dry with a milder trend toward the end of this period as high pressure shifts to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Initial idea at this point as high pressure offshore, low pressure Great Lakes with a mainly dry and mild finish to the month of March. April’s early days may bring brief unsettled weather followed by a shift to colder.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Overall no big changes to this forecast with dry and chilly weather today into Wednesday, although the cold start will be replaced by a milder afternoon in winter’s final hours on Wednesday, with the vernal equinox occurring at 5:58PM. Quick changes for the first full day of spring, and a tweak to my forecast to add a little more rain as hang-back low pressure in the form of an inverted trough just off the Southeast Coast will form a low that will move up along or just ahead of an approaching cold front, adding some moisture to it. But the cold air coming on the back side of the system as it intensifies while moving away will be too late to change it fully to snow here. That cold air may result in a few rain to snow showers during Friday, when cloudiness will be the biggest aspect of the day to start, then wind later, which will last right into Saturday as it will be drier, but feeling like winter again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving. Steadier rain develops afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Becoming windy. Temperatures fall to the 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
Breezy but dry and milder March 24 as high pressure positions itself southwest to south of the region. A cold front drops down from north to south March 25, and the speed of this front will dictate the temperatures, which may start mild then turn colder. Unsettled weather at least in the form of an overcast with potential drizzle or light mix may occur by late March 25 into March 26, but will have to watch a potential wave of low pressure passing south of the region that may be close enough to enhance the precipitation threat. Drier weather to end the period with temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
A drier and milder end to March but the weather may turn colder and unsettled to start April. Low confidence outlook at this time.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
A pretty straightforward forecast for the Monday-Friday work week, which half way through sees the arrival of spring, the Vernal Equinox, on Wednesday. And that day may be the most spring-feeling one of the week, as it will feature a milder interlude between a chilly start and end to the period. We start with high pressure keeping a disturbance south of the region today, and high pressure dominating on Tuesday, with a chill in the air. A little milder air sneaks in as high pressure sinks to the south Wednesday, allowing a southwesterly fair flow to arrive. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and I will have to add the risk of rain showers to the forecast, having previously thought this would be a dry system. Some guidance, which is known to be performing very poorly, is living in a fantasy land in trying to develop a storm system close enough for significant precipitation late this week, but in reality the evolution of that system will be much further offshore, and its intensification will help pull a second cold front into the region Friday, with a colder ending to the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the lower to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
March 23-24 weekend looks dry but with a windy chill Saturday transitioning to a breezy but milder Sunday. Watching for a period of unsettled weather in the March 25-27 time frame as it trends cooler to colder with high pressure building across southeastern Canada and low pressure traveling near or south of New England.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Drier weather returns for much of this period with a slow moderating trend as high pressure gains control of the weather.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
High pressure will control the weather through Wednesday with dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions overall. A cold front will come through the region Thursday with some cloudiness but for now leaving the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast, which details as follows…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
The energy that goes by to the north and brings the cold front through the day before will merge with offshore energy into an ocean storm which may throw additional cloudiness back into the region and otherwise create blustery and colder weather March 22 into March 23. This will probably delay the arrival of the next system so that March 24 is fair. Watch for a minor system with light precipitation late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant, maybe making the “In like a lion, out like a lamb” folklore quite true this year.