DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)
A minor to moderate winter storm is in progress and will continue most of the day today on this final day of February. Its greatest impact in terms of snowfall takes place southwest and west of Boston where it snowed longest during dark hours, and also heaviest as the initial band of snow was strongest – starting to weaken and break up gradually while heading northeastward as the system producing it weakens gradually and gives way to a new low to the south. That low will head eastward and keep the precipitation going for much of the day, albeit somewhat limited by daylight and lack of intensity, but we’ll continue to slowly add to the accumulation as the day goes on bringing the region generally into the predicted ranges, again favoring the lower sides of those ranges in some areas, especially to the east and northeast where the snow arrived latest and did not have the initial intensity seen to the southwest. The system exits tonight and the rest of the forecast looks on track as well. March arrives with fair weather to start Wednesday, but a disturbance will return clouds to the region later in the day with a burst of rain showers by evening, that may start as snow showers in some areas especially northwest of Boston. This will be as a warm front approaches and passes. Then the frontal boundary sinks back through the region slowly during Thursday as low pressure rides along it, but milder air in place with this system means rain instead of snow. A quick return to colder air as this exits on Thursday evening, and then we watch our next winter storm threat later Friday into Saturday as low pressure heads this way. The track of that storm will help determine the precipitation profile for our region, but at the moment I am leaning toward a track just to the south of our region with enough cold air in place for frozen precipitation (snow and sleet) in much of the area for the event, but we’ll have to watch for freezing rain and/or rain to be involved, especially to the south.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: An early snow flurry north and west and a bit of drizzle south and east possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix likely. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Snow/mix tapering off. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
Watching the March 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather from one or two systems which may include additional frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
General idea is for continued colder than normal but a little less frequent storm activity, though still some wintry precipitation threat before the period is over.