Friday February 17 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A cold front approaches, slowed briefly by a developing low pressure wave, then passing through the region from midday through this afternoon. Mild air and an increasing southerly wind under an overcast sky ahead of the front will lead to periods of rain showers during its passage, and the rain showers may end mixed with or turning to sleet and/or snow in some areas north of Boston if precipitation lingers long enough until the early evening. Tonight, the colder air invades, along with a gusty wind, so it’ll feel like mid winter finally. Our weekend is dry, but with two different types of weather. Saturday is sunniest and coolest with a gusty breeze as high pressure approaches from the west and low pressure departs via eastern Canada. Sunday is milder, with a shifting wind to a more southerly direction, but also turns cloudier as that southerly air flow brings increased moisture. Upper level low pressure will help kick off a new surface low just south and east of New England Sunday night into Monday, bringing a good chance of a period of rain favoring RI and eastern MA and perhaps the NH Seacoast early Monday. A trough and frontal system will keep clouds around and may produce an additional rain shower anywhere in the afternoon hours. Tuesday, a shot of chilly, dry air arrives with a gusty breeze once again.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain showers west to east starting at mid morning. Areas of fog through early afternoon. Breaking clouds but additional rain showers possible through late-day, except sleet and/or snow showers possible southern NH / northeastern MA. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH this morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with a few snow showers possible mainly NH Seacoast to MA North Shore. Clearing thereafter. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W and diminishing later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 45-52. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight favoring the South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A gradual pattern shift will be ongoing with a stretch of unsettled weather at first then potentially more of that at the end of the period. More precipitation variety becomes probable with a colder trend taking place. Timing/details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Newer weather pattern more evident during this period with a couple of low pressure areas potentially impacting the region with a variety of precipitation including frozen stuff, and an overall colder temperature regime. Timing/details TBD.

76 thoughts on “Friday February 17 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  1. It rained a little last night in my area. There seems to be a residue on my car from the rain. Does anyone know what that could be from?

    1. That was the warm front rain that I had in the forecast for last evening and verified perfectly. 😉

      1. I was more trying to figure out what caused the residue in the rain lol. It seems to early for pollen. I noticed it on everyones cars in my area. Any idea?

  2. Thanks TK.

    This morning, a tale of two 10-day forecasts.

    Matt Noyes (NBC-10) has the cold pattern backing off with next weekend more of the same temperatures we have been experiencing much of this winter.

    Cindy (Ch. 5) has the pattern definitely changing with *snow* next weekend and temps near 30 degrees.

    1. Word to the wise is never really pay attention to any numbers on any of those boxes after day 3. 🙂

        1. Thanks JpDave and Vicki.

          Up through Wednesday, we had completed 108 days and I’m proud to say I worked all 108 days.

          So ….. I might have started this break a bit early. But, most of colleagues have had 5 to many more absences to this point, so, I know I’ll be supported for starting this vacation a little early.

          1. Good for you. Just let me know if anyone gives you any negative feedback 😀

            I hope you have an amazing trip and vacation. I wish the same for you also, Captain.

  9. To the teachers out there, Now that we have just about completed 3 years of covid, have you noticed a different behavior in the students. Where my daughter teaches, the kids are out of control. This year she has had the worst behaved class in her over 20 years of teaching.

    1. Much better than last year, JPD, but still not at the level of maturity that was displayed before hybrid learning. I have a lot of 11th graders this school year. If you think about it, they, up until this points, have not really had a “normal” high school experience.
      It has taken a lot of hard work to undo the last two years and get them ready for college or their next adventures.

      I/we are finding that there are attendance issues for some students. They don’t come to school every day.

      1. Thank you Capt. My Daughter is experiencing incidents of bullying and general disrespect among the students.

    2. We’ve been seeing, in the middle school age range, what your daughter has been seeing JpDave.

      85% of the greats are great, but the 15% who aren’t are out of control.

      Same experience, worst I’ve seen in 19 years. And we have/continue to try all interventions, in addition to discipline. But, some of the students, it’s just going to take a lot of time to help teach acceptable classroom/cluster/school behavior.

        1. Yes. I feel for the admin. It’s really all discipline for them now. It doesn’t allow them to come into classes much. I’ve always liked when the come in and participate. I wouldn’t do their job for a million dollars.

          1. It’s a shame. I NEVER remember anything like that going on. Thank you for sharing. At least I know
            it’s happening everywhere.

            I have some theories, but I can’t get political on the blog.

    3. Not a teacher but I get feedback from several members of school committees and from administrator who are friends.

      Bullying is bad. One part of the problem is that some parents are setting the example. They are in the minority…I think…but they also make the most noise and that sets an example

      It was not unusual, last year especially, to request police presence at school committee meetings because of anti mask, etc. parents. Librarians are now being targeted because they won’t ban certain books. Social media doesn’t help. And all of this is added to the stress these kids have been under during the Covid period. My heart goes out to teachers and all school staff. And to our kids.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Cherry blossoms are blooming in DC; a record early start.

    Around here, the buds on the trees along Beacon are ready to burst. They won’t quite yet, but it’s perilously close. As we gain in daylight it doesn’t even look like November anymore. It just looks and feels like spring.

    I know a pattern change MAY bring actual cold and perhaps even snow. But, the skeptic in me has me not believing. If I had to bet, I would favor what Matt Noyes is saying at this point, with TK’s caveat.

  12. 56 Boston. Maybe one more. Off record by several, as expected. Providence is 12 below their record and may manage 2 more. 56 tops. Record is 66.

    YAWN

    1. 🙂 🙂
      yeah I didn’t see how any records would be broken today.

      We’ll see how much this pattern changes and what the results will be. I am kind of in Joshua’s camp, however, I have been around long enough to know that things can REALLY change, so I am on the look out for sure. I have not let my guard down.

      But as far as I am concerned, let Spring arrive for good early this year. I DOUBT we will be allowed that luxury.
      We’re due for pay back for such a mild Winter!!!!!

  13. Speaking of records, how did MV and New Bedford get to 70F and 72F respectively with all that chilly water surrounding them? Meanwhile with a land breeze Boston “only” got to 62?

    Our weather/climate makes no sense anymore. You can pretty much throw Meteorology 101 out the window these days.

    1. New Bedford got to 72 yesterday because they had a west wind, so it was over land the entire time, no marine influence at all. The airport is several miles inland, on the north side of the city, right off of Route 140.

      As for MVY, same thing, they had a W to WSW wind, which keeps it over land for as much as possible on the island. Adding to that, the airport is nearly dead center of the island, in a slight low point, and with the bluffs to the west (200-300 ft, vs 59 ft for the airport), you probably had a little downsloping.

      This is EXACTLY Meteorology 101.

    2. Met 101 is alive & well. I use it every day. Doesn’t always lead me to the right forecast but much more often than not it does. 🙂

  14. As for the recent behavior issues, I am wondering if in hindsight, schools should have remained open as usual when the pandemic hit so the general day-to-day routine would continue. Maybe we as a nation, “locked down” too abruptly. If I recall, kids never really caught the virus all that much as it was mostly the elderly.

    “Put on your masks and let us continue our lesson on page such and such.”

    Interesting though how working remotely works perfectly in the adult workplace but not in a traditional K-12 school environment. I get the impression college students didn’t really like it either.

  18. It’s 84-88F in central and South Fl with dps around 60F

    In extreme So Florida, it’s 80-82F, with dew points about 70F and a few tropical showers around.

    Suddenly 50s and the occasional 60F sound cold. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. I wonder what folks think of these comments. I tended to discount them this morning as I didn’t think ash from the derailment in Ohio could be here. Maybe not a smart move on my part. But my SIL has found similar comments on other social media platforms around MA. I thought this might be a good place to ask since many here know how the het steam/upper winds etc travel

    I blocked names since the Sutton FB page is a closed page.

    https://imgur.com/a/Ymb75PU

  22. The residue today is from a Plains dust event a few days ago.

    Chemicals from the spill if concentrated enough would only leave a residue after everything had completely dried and the concentration was not likely enough. Still a concern nonetheless. Not discounting that.

    No recognizable odor in my area with any of the rain.

    1. Thanks. Not sure where Ryan is located. But there was a strong enough smell this morning that I shut a window I leave open most of every day. Since he noticed it, maybe it is more in the central MA CT area.

      1. It was special! I would like to return.

        I just learned that Barbara Hernandez, a Chilean, known as the Ice Mermaid just swam part of the Drake again … going maybe 1.5 miles or so. I follow her from time to time … she is amazing!

    1. Sleet for sure. I had a little bit of that on my travel from Burlington to Woburn but it was mostly large wet flakes mixed with rain.

  32. Thanks Vicki for sharing that “CT NBC 30” video of weather memories. I had no idea though that there was UHF as far back as 1953.

    Was that guy standing on the ladder next to the “weather girl” actually smoking a pipe? Lol. 😀

  33. TK – Did the cold front pass through SNE a bit earlier than expected? When I left work at 3:00 I noticed a definite “chill” that I didn’t expect until much later in the afternoon more towards evening.

    1. No. If anything it was a little slow because of a low pressure wave.

      In my discussions for the last several days I’d been leaning toward an earlier passage and NO widespread record temps, if any at all. Most places fell significantly shy of today’s records. I did not agree with the majority of media forecasts out there. Definitely looked cooler to me – and that’s what happened. Boston was off the record high by 6 degrees. Providence never got out of the 50s. I forecast a 57 there, and their high was 58.

      For my area (Woburn / Reading), I expected the front between 12PM and 2PM. It passed Reading at 2:01PM.

          1. I did say “a few record ties are possible” in my statement yesterday. But most of the forecast highs were in the lower to middle 60s for the city. I thought middle 60s was too high so I was not going there. I figured 59 was a good forecast high. Off by 2. Still below the record.

Comments are closed.