7:55PM

The big wind event along with some heavy rain from Thursday morning is now behind us. Lingering gusty winds from the west across southeastern New England are now relaxing. A secondary boundary will send another punch of cold air into the region on Friday which will then linger through the weekend. Some lake effect snow bands all the way from the Great Lakes will attempt to cross the Berkshires but for the most part will dry up through Friday. A few may survive the trip as light snow showers into southern NH or the western and northern suburbs of Boston. A disturbance will also pass just south of New England on Friday but far enough offshore to keep any snow over the ocean. The next disturbance will make a run at the area during the second half of the weekend with some threat for snow from late Saturday night through Sunday. I’m not quite sure how this will play out yet as the development and track of low pressure are somewhat in question. Some parts of the region may see a light to possibly moderate snowfall with odds favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Once the low does form and move away it will drag down more cold air for Monday, and another disturbance Tuesday should ride further south and east, keeping its snow offshore. We may set up a northeasterly flow, however, around Wednesday, and with lingering low pressure troughing to the south, at least clouds and possibly some light snow may develop across the region. This is a bit far away at day 6, so we’ll see if this pans out or high pressure ends up stronger and fair weather dominates.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. A few stray snow showers may reach the western suburbs of Boston and southern NH. Lows 22-27. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Again a risk of a few stray snow showers from southern NH to the suburbs of Boston. Highs 33-38. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-33. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow toward morning. Lows 18-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 28-33. Wind variable 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 13. High 33.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 33.

11:28PM

From the National Weather Service: High Wind Warning for the entirety of southeastern New England through mid morning Thursday. Wind gusts of 45 to 65 MPH may result in some damage and power outages. Winds will be coming from the south to southwest through about dawn Thursday, then southwest to west during the day Thursday. Strongest wind gusts will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations.

Along with strong winds, showers and possible thunderstorms will be increasing across the region overnight through early Thursday morning, with some downpours possible.

All of this will be the result of a strong cold front moving west to east across the region. This front separates Spring-like air over the East Coast from advancing very cold air from Canada and the north central US. The wet weather will be moving out and clearing moving in from the west Thursday afternoon as temperatures fall, but a secondary boundary crossing the region from northwest to southeast on Friday will introduce even colder air, which will be hanging around into next week. A series of disturbances will bring some snow chances to the region as well.

Sorting it out with the forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more numerous moving southwest to northeast. Chance of thunderstorms after 3AM. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures holding near 60 then falling into the 50s. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH except 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. Isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH possible especially South Coast and highest elevations.

THURSDAY: Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning followed by clearing west to east in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into the 40s. Wind SW to W 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH in the morning, gradually slackening during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible mostly west of Boston. Lows 22-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible especially north and west of Boston. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 14. High 28.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 28.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 12. High 30.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 27.

7:22AM

We get a one-day-stand of warmer air today ahead of a strong cold front in southern New England. Too bad it isn’t one of those fair-weather days. A damp and foggy start in much of the region, no sunshine save for a few bonus breaks in the clouds this afternoon, and a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms tonight will all be part of it. In addition, wind is going to become an issue later today through early Thursday with a strong southerly wind develop ahead of the front, shifting to west with its passage. A high wind watch has been posted for much of the area and has already been upgraded to a high wind warning for southeastern MA and RI. The showers and storms will be triggered by the cold front moving in from the west, which will also serve as a running board for an additional area of rain for eastern sections into Thursday morning. The cold air behind the front will not get in fast enough to cause any issues with rain turning to mix or snow. A secondary boundary coming through on Friday will bring some snow showers and the much colder air for the weekend into early next week. In addition, a couple more disturbances moving around the base of a low pressure trough returning to the Northeast will trigger the development of a couple more storms, which will bring snow chances to the region Saturday night & Sunday as well as Monday night & Tuesday (timing may change a little bit especially on the Tuesday event).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60 in a few locations. Wind S under 10 MPH to start, increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers before 9PM then a more solid band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region during the remainder of the night. Some heavy rain is likely. Temperatures holding in the 50s. Wind S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain lingering over eastern MA, eastern NH, and RI into mid morning otherwise a clearing trend west to east, reaching eastern areas in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into and through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

TUESDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

7:25AM

First a slippery morning today as temperatures have stayed below freezing in most areas of southeastern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands where it has made it into the middle 30s with a few areas of spotty light rain and drizzle there. Elsewhere, spotty light snow, frozen drizzle (tiny ice pellets) and freezing drizzle (liquid drizzle freezing on surfaces) has been occurring and will continue through dawn. This will continue to make untreated surfaces slippery, so use caution if outside into the mid morning hours. By late morning onward, temperatures in most locations should rise above freezing, though they may stay close to the freezing mark over some interior valleys. Precipitation will be over in all locations though by the middle of the morning and the balance of the day will be precipitation-free. However, as the warm front responsible for the unsettled weather finally begins a push northward, some additional light rain/drizzle may develop Tuesday evening, and there may be a few pockets of freezing rain/drizzle over interior valleys. But finally the warm air will win out, and the temperature will take a trip up – all the way into the 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. A band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms will mark the end of the very brief warm up Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning from west to east across the region, as the first of 2 cold fronts moves through. Windy and drier weather will arrive during the day Thursday but it will not get too cold right away. A sharper cold front will arrive Thursday night or Friday morning and introduce a shot of much colder weather for the end of the week. I’m still watching the weekend period to see if any additional storminess forms nearby, bringing some snow.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH MID MORNING: Overcast with spotty  light snow, frozen drizzle, and freezing drizzle except liquid drizzle/very light rain Cape Cod & the Islands. Cloudy thereafter. Temperatures 30-35. Wind light variable.

LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind light E-SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain and drizzle with some freezing rain/drizzle possible far northwest of  Boston. Lows 32-38 early then temperatures rising into the 40s overnight. Wind light SE shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-60. Wind SSW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving across the region west to east. Some heavy rain possible. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-50 MPH shifting to W overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers possible in southeastern MA in the morning. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: AM snow. PM clearing. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

This is largely the same post as the previous one, but edited to update for time periods, add a threat of some freezing rain to Monday evening, and lower Tuesday’s temperatures a bit. A few minor changes are made in the discussion below……………………………..

12:43AM

1:50PM

Starting the outlook for the coming 7 days a bit early, as there is not much to talk about on this bright and cold Sunday afternoon. The tranquil chill is a bit of a rest-up ahead of what will be an active and changing weather week in southeastern New England.

This will lead off with a warm front moving into the region Monday, the mild air behind it overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in a period of snow and mixed precipitation developing from southwest to northeast during the day Monday lasting into the evening. Though snow amounts will be generally light (mostly under 3 inches), some slippery travel is possible for the Monday afternoon / evening commute and for a few more hours into the night, especially across interior RI up through eastern MA into southern NH.

The warm front responsible for the wintry precipitation Monday will slog slowly northward during Tuesday, which will become milder from south to north. I’m not expecting much additional precipitation on Tuesday at this point, but with the front not too far away, it’s always possible a few areas of light rain and drizzle (as it will be milder aloft) may occur. So expect clouds to rule more than anything.

By Wednesday, as a strong cold front approaches from the west but doesn’t quite make it into the region during the day, expect a stronger push of warmer air from the south and southwest. It’s not impossible that some areas may approach or reach 60, and much of the day should be rain-free, as it looks like the cold front’s timing would bring most of the wet weather, possibly a ribbon of heavy rain including thunderstorms, through from west to east during the evening and nighttime hours.

The cold front should be moving offshore during Thursday, which will transition back to colder weather via a strong west wind and possibly a few lingering rain or snow showers.

The first 3 days of February (Friday-Sunday) look cold and there is a shot of a winter weather event in there as well. There are far too many variations on medium range computer guidance to even attempt any detail here yet, but will make a best-guess for now and then fine-tune as it gets closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Sunshine. Highs 23-28. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear start, increasing high clouds west to east late. Low from near 5 interior valleys to 10-15 coastal and urban areas. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing from southwest to northeast from mid afternoon through dusk except mixed snow/rain South Coast and rain on the Islands. Highs 30-35. Wind light variable eventually becoming SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow inland, mix coast especially south of Boston and rain outer Cape Cod & Islands. Precipitation ending from west to east before midnight. Snow accumulation in mix areas of less than 1 inch, 1-3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain at times mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs around 40. Wind light S.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers & possible thunderstorms arriving at night. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Temperatures falling through the 50s overnight and the 40s during the day to the 30s at night.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 18. High 28.

10:12AM

A cold weekend with high pressure in control will progress to a milder Tuesday and Wednesday, but getting from cold to mild will be accomplished with a period of snow later Monday with the passage of a warm front. This does not look like a significant event in terms of amounts, however we will have to watch for timing of the event which may result in a slick evening commute Monday and continued slippery untreated roads Monday evening. More on this later. A cold front will put an end to the brief mild party by Thursday as a return to colder weather commences. Looking ahead, the first days of February look cold, and we may have to also watch for potential storminess.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning except clouds and snow showers with 1/2 inch to 1 inch accumulation on Outer Cape Cod. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 23-28. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 5-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening, diminishing overnight. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon & evening light snow. Low 16. High 31.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning sleet and rain showers. Low 31. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers. Low 41. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain to snow showers. Temps falling 40s to 30s.

2:02AM

It will still be cold through the weekend, but it will ease up from the levels of the last 2 days. A small clipper low pressure system will drop down from Canada via the Great Lakes tonight bringing some light snow to MA and RI. It will be too dry for anything more than flakes in the air in southern NH. There will be some additional moisture passing to the south, but the lack of phasing of the northern energy with the southern energy will prevent a significant snowfall in this area. More cold and dry weather will return for the weekend.

A moderating trend will get underway Monday and last into the middle of next week, but will be rather short-lived, as it looks like cold air will charge back as the month comes to an end. Some unsettled weather will take place during this time, and this may include some variety of precipitation.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 20-25. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH in the morning, shifting to N and diminishing to 5-10 MPH in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light snow, especially MA & RI, with accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch, except  locally around 2 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. Lows 15-20. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 35.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow, sleet, and rain. Low 29. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 50.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

12:28AM

With many focusing on whether or not we’ll have a snowstorm late Friday, it should not be lost that we’re in the middle of a very cold outbreak that will continue through early Friday. One disturbance is moving south of the region during the next 24 hours then blowing up a storm that will remain well offshore. A second disturbance will come along late Friday through early Saturday but should be far enough south of the region to limit the snowfall. Another shot of cold air is expected through the end of the weekend, but not as cold as what is currently occurring. A period of moderating temperatures is still expected next week for the final days of January.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 0. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near 0.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-5 inland, 5-10 coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NE 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing, accumulating from a coating to 5 inches from northwest of Boston to Cape Cod and the Islands. Lows 15-20. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Highs 25-30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 8. High 27.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Low 30. High 40.

12:42AM

Here it is – the well-advertised arctic cold outbreak that it seems like took longer to get here than an excited 6-year-old’s birthday party. Some number of days ago, before the “Case Of The Mysterious Norlun” distracted us, I had mentioned that this cold outbreak, though significant, would not be memorable. We’re not going to set any temperature records in this one, but nevertheless it will be the coldest it has been around here in 2 years from today through Friday morning, along with some bitterly cold wind chills. Use caution if you will be outside for any length of time. There will be a sneaky disturbance sliding across the sky just south of us early Thursday, responsible for some clouds, but nothing more.

Looking ahead a little to the storm threat for the end of the week, there is still some uncertainty as to how it will play out. A look at most guidance will show that the type of pattern we’re in will push the developing storm more east than north, lessening its impact potential in southern New England. But it would not take that much of a slightly more amplified jet stream than what these models indicate to bring that storm a little closer and increase the snow threat, and there are, in fact, a few models that indicate this possibility. With this uncertainty in place, I’ll play the cheap-way-out  middle of the road generic forecast wording for now, until I start to get a better feel for what will happen.

Beyond that event, which in whatever form it comes will be late Friday to early Saturday, expect a return to fair but cold weather Sunday, and then a moderation for the beginning of next week as the jet stream relaxes and lifts northward into southeastern Canada above a flat ridge of high pressure building across the east central United States. This will probably be a fairly short-lived moderation as there are already signs of another cold outbreak around the start of February.

Detailing the next 7 days for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 14-19. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-5. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH. Wind chill -5 to -10, briefly colder at times.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny.  Highs 12-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill near to often below zero.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Snow early morning. Low 15. High 26.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 27.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 39.

7:21AM

Has anybody seen my Norlun trough? Oh there it is! Sitting offshore, NOT doing what I expected it was going to do. Well, it is doing it, just not WHERE I expected. Oh well, chalk up another forecast bust and move on, right? That’s all I can do here, folks. So here we go.

This one is short and sweet, and a little bitter…cold that is. A few snow showers today as reinforcing arctic cold moves in and hangs around through the middle of the week. The coldest days will be Wednesday and Thursday.

A winter storm threat looms for the end of the week, something we’ve been seeing in the cards for a while. At this still-early stage it looks like low pressure will make a run up just off the East Coast late Friday and Saturday bringing the chance of significant snow to the area. It should be gone by Sunday which would be a cold day. A moderation in temperature may take place by the start of next week, probably temporary, as the longer term pattern still looks colder.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 24-29. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low around 0 inland to 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 14-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 8. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow to flurries. Low 18. High 26.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 11. High 27.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 35.

11:14PM

I am beginning to hate the phrase “high bust potential” but I am glad I used it, because a shift of just a number of miles in the development of things means a big change in snow amounts for the ongoing (or not too ongoing) event. Instead of getting into the details of why things are going the way they are, we’ll just outline the newly expected snow amounts, nothing that there is a jackpot area of over 4 inches in southern RI which occurred Monday evening.

There will indeed be a trough development but the latest info suggests it will be just a little further offshore, keeping the heaviest snow out over the water and only brushing the remainder of eastern MA and only giving a moderate (at most) amount to coastal northeastern MA to NH. The dusting to inch or so that has fallen in areas from just west of Boston westward is about it. The few to several inches that have occurred over southeastern MA may be added to a little more, especially over Cape Cod where the new expected amount is 3-6 inches. There is still uncertainty from  Boston northward along the coast, and especially from Cape Ann to NH Seacoast where a 3-6 inch burst is still possible overnight and early Tuesday.

The remainder of the discussion is unchanged from the previous post…

Midweek Arctic cold: Still expecting a nice dose of pure Arctic air for Wednesday & Thursday. A weak disturbance will pass south of the region and bring nothing more than a period of high and middle clouds early Thursday, otherwise it will be dry and very cold.

Late week storm threat: Yes it’s still there. And it’s still too early to provide details, but my best guess is that it will be a Friday night / Saturday threat (still some timing issues to be worked out), and threaten the region with a significant snowfall. A few snow showers may linger Sunday depending on the speed of an upper level trough moving through the region. It will be cold, regardless, right through the weekend, though not as cold as at midweek.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of snow, favoring coastal MA and NH. See updated amounts above. Lows 14-19. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Any snow mainly coastal areas north of Boston tapering off, with some additional snow showers crossing Cape Cod. Highs 20-25. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 2. High 20.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 27.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 12. High 27.

4:34PM

The snow event for tonight and Tuesday morning is going to behave about as expected. What was not known was the details, and even at this point some of them are still unknown. What we do know is that a very low water content (about 20:1 snow to water ratio) snowfall will occur tonight and Tuesday morning. This will be the result of a small low pressure area from the west redeveloping just south of New England and intensifying as it moves northeastward into the waters east of New England. As mentioned previously, an inverted trough, or Norlun trough, extending back behind the low pressure area will serve as a belt of instability to enhance the snowfall over far eastern MA and coastal NH, adding to the totals there. The dry/fluffy nature of the snow will also allow it to add up quickly. The upside of this type of snow is that it is very lightweight and easy to move. Snow accumulations through Tuesday morning are expected to be 2-4 inches from northern RI up through the I-495 belt of MA into south central NH, 4-8 inches east of there through much of eastern MA, but 8-12 inches over outer Cape Cod, eastern Essex County MA including Cape Ann, and the NH Seacoast. In this 8-12 inch area, isolated amounts of 12-15 inches cannot be ruled out. All this should wind down by Tuesday afternoon and clouds will probably break before the day is over.

Midweek Arctic cold: Still expecting a nice dose of pure Arctic air for Wednesday & Thursday. A weak disturbance will pass south of the region and bring nothing more than a period of high and middle clouds early Thursday, otherwise it will be dry and very cold.

Late week storm threat: Yes it’s still there. And it’s still too early to provide details, but my best guess is that it will be a Friday night / Saturday threat (still some timing issues to be worked out), and threaten the region with a significant snowfall. A few snow showers may linger Sunday depending on the speed of an upper level trough moving through the region. It will be cold, regardless, right through the weekend, though not as cold as at midweek.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Snow developing and becoming widespread, with embedded heavier snow bands especially in coastal MA and coastal NH. Lows 14-19. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers then departing northwest to southeast during the morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun in the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow. Highs 20-25. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 2. High 20.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 27.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 12. High 27.

7:31AM

This is the forecast portion only! Discussion will be posted this afternoon.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY – MLK JR DAY: Increasing clouds. A few light snow showers possible late. Highs 24-49. Wind light variable, mostly N to NNE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Widespread snow developing, with embedded heavier snow showers developing overnight especially coastal NH and eastern MA including Cape Cod. Lows 13-18. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with snow and snow showers in the morning, with a few areas bands of heavier snow very possible especially coastal NH and eastern MA – accumulation a general 2 to 6 inches in areas without enhancement and 6 or more inches in areas that see enhanced snowfall. Mostly cloudy with any snow and snow showers ending northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 18-23. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH. Some blowing snow.

WEDNESDAY: AM sun / PM clouds. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 3. High 20.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 27.

9:30AM

This is an update on the previous entry, adjustments needed for this update include an increase in the wind forecast for today and tonight, and a posting of forecast snowfall amounts for Monday night & Tuesday. Otherwise, there are no major changes, and this will all be updated again this evening with the posting of The Week Ahead.

Today / Tonight … The transition from very mild air (for January), with temperatures probably reaching 50 during the day, to arctic cold, with temperatures falling into the teens overnight. This will be announced by big winds (gusting as high as 45 to 50 MPH) shifting from WSW to WNW (not a huge shift but you’ll notice a huge difference in temperature between noon today and midnight tonight – up to a 30-degree drop and even a few more by the time the lows are reached early Monday morning. With a line of snow squalls moving into Vermont early this morning, including thunder, one would think we’d be seeing a heavy shower or thunderstorm (rain due to the mild air) ahead of this front some time today, but that activity is likely to weaken considerably and only a few showers may survive the trip across southern NH and eastern MA early or mid afternoon. There is even a more remote chance of an isolated snow shower coming along with a secondary trough line that has to push through here early this evening around the time of the kick off of the NFL AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens at Foxboro MA. Expect the temperature to be in the middle 40s during the afternoon tailgate, dropping to the middle 30s by kick off time, and the upper or even middle 20s by the end of the game. The big story will be the strong westerly winds which will gust beyond 40 MPH, playing havoc with tailgate activities (beware of flying paper and plastic cups and plates and maybe a few burger rolls!). The wind will also likely have an impact on the game itself as it swirls around the stadium.

Monday / Tuesday … The winds will have dropped off by Monday but the cold air will be in, not yet in full force (see Wednesday / Thursday), but enough that you will sure notice a big difference from what we had this weekend. Of more importance is a disturbance coming out of the Great Lakes region that is going to transfer its energy to a new low pressure area just south of New England, which will then strengthen as it tracks northeastward into the waters just east of New England. Even though this low track is close enough to throw snow into the region, in most cases it would be a light snowfall, but there are 3 things working to enhance the snowfall in some locations, especially closer to the eastern coastal areas of NH & MA and probably the southern coastal areas of MA & RI. These are 1) very cold temperatures which will lead to snow to water ratios on the order of 20 or more to 1, allowing very fluffy snow to pile up easily, 2) ocean enhancement where wind comes off the ocean water and picks up additional moisture (this would be most likely on the outer part of Cape Ann and across Cape Cod in areas exposed to a northerly wind), and 3) an inverted trough, or Norlun trough setup, in which an elongated or stretched out low pressure trough extends back from the main low pressure area, in this case into southeastern New England, and results in added convergence or instability in the atmosphere. NOTE that the forecast snowfall amounts below are trickier than usual with these factors in place, and can potentially bust quite easily, so please check back in the comments section below as the day and evening goes on for any changes before the full update later tonight. For the timing of the snow, though flakes may begin in some areas late Monday afternoon, the majority of the snow will fall late Monday night into Tuesday morning before tapering off in the afternoon and pulling away to the southeast.

Wednesday / Thursday … Still looking at a pure arctic outbreak, the coldest in 2 years. Not expecting any big record low temperatures though. A weak upper level disturbance may bring some clouds later Wednesday to early Thursday but dry weather is expected.

Friday / Saturday … Not a whole lot to add yet about the winter storm potential here. Starting to see hints that it may be a double-barrel system with a shot of snow Friday with one wave of low pressure, and another low moving up the coast or just offshore on Saturday, being a secondary hit or a close call. It’s still far away, so all I can say still is that there is the potential for another significant snowfall.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine & high clouds this morning. Variably cloudy this afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs around 50. Wind WSW to W 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a very slight chance of a passing snow shower early. Partly to mostly clear later. Lows 14-19. Wind W to WNW 15-30 MPH gusting over 40 MPH early, shifting to NW then slowly diminishing later.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Increasing clouds. A few light snow showers possible late. Highs 24-49. Wind light variable, mostly N to NNE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread snow developing, with embedded heavier snow showers developing overnight especially coastal NH and eastern MA including Cape Cod. Lows 13-18. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with snow and snow showers in the morning, with a few areas bands of heavier snow very possible especially coastal NH and eastern MA – accumulation a general 2 to 6 inches in areas without enhancement and 6 to 12 inches in areas that see enhanced snowfall. Mostly cloudy with any snow and snow showers ending northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 18-23. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH. Some blowing snow.

WEDNESDAY: AM sun / PM clouds. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 3. High 20.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.