Here We Snow! (There We Don’t!)

265 Comments

4:34PM

The snow event for tonight and Tuesday morning is going to behave about as expected. What was not known was the details, and even at this point some of them are still unknown. What we do know is that a very low water content (about 20:1 snow to water ratio) snowfall will occur tonight and Tuesday morning. This will be the result of a small low pressure area from the west redeveloping just south of New England and intensifying as it moves northeastward into the waters east of New England. As mentioned previously, an inverted trough, or Norlun trough, extending back behind the low pressure area will serve as a belt of instability to enhance the snowfall over far eastern MA and coastal NH, adding to the totals there. The dry/fluffy nature of the snow will also allow it to add up quickly. The upside of this type of snow is that it is very lightweight and easy to move. Snow accumulations through Tuesday morning are expected to be 2-4 inches from northern RI up through the I-495 belt of MA into south central NH, 4-8 inches east of there through much of eastern MA, but 8-12 inches over outer Cape Cod, eastern Essex County MA including Cape Ann, and the NH Seacoast. In this 8-12 inch area, isolated amounts of 12-15 inches cannot be ruled out. All this should wind down by Tuesday afternoon and clouds will probably break before the day is over.

Midweek Arctic cold: Still expecting a nice dose of pure Arctic air for Wednesday & Thursday. A weak disturbance will pass south of the region and bring nothing more than a period of high and middle clouds early Thursday, otherwise it will be dry and very cold.

Late week storm threat: Yes it’s still there. And it’s still too early to provide details, but my best guess is that it will be a Friday night / Saturday threat (still some timing issues to be worked out), and threaten the region with a significant snowfall. A few snow showers may linger Sunday depending on the speed of an upper level trough moving through the region. It will be cold, regardless, right through the weekend, though not as cold as at midweek.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Snow developing and becoming widespread, with embedded heavier snow bands especially in coastal MA and coastal NH. Lows 14-19. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers then departing northwest to southeast during the morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun in the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow. Highs 20-25. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 2. High 20.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 27.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 12. High 27.

265 thoughts on “Here We Snow! (There We Don’t!)”

  1. What are you thinking about school cancellations in and around Boston tomorrow? The district I teach in doesn’t do delayed starts, but this looks like a tricky morning commute!

    1. Unless somehow this is a monumentally bad forecast, I’d expect a good amount of cancellations in eastern MA. Not sure exactly where you are, but I would say better than 50% chance you don’t have it.

      Although here in Woburn they sent the kids regular time during the heaviest snow last Wednesday, but it turned out to be ok, and that storm was bad for a short while before the mild temperatures made roads just wet once the crews went over them once.

  5. Not sure if anyone can guess this…my wife HATES driving in any snow and was planning to leave Windham, NH at 6pm to drive back to Woburn. Does this time sound OK or will it start sooner?

    2. I did answer you on the other blog. I agree with North. Should be ok into the early evening.

    1. OS. Throw away the maps! It’s nowcasting time, LOL. The 18z, especially, cannot be taken seriously.

    1. He is usually conservative, but not this much. Someone is going to be wrong here based on the setup. This is a tough situation and one that they would rather not be calling exact numbers on :), but they have to.

  10. The radar is not very impressive, at least yet. It has been snowing very lightly here in CT for an hour and a half, and it appears the back edge is already about to move through! LOL, we’ll be lucky to get a half inch here!

    1. TK explained that the low is redeveloping to our south. CT and NYC are not players in this storm. As the storm deepens and moves east it will take the snow with it. It’s the interaction between the low and the inverted trough that results in much more snow for eastern MA.

    1. For CT that is. CT was never forecasted to receive much more than an inch or two. Worcester barely will get into the action.

      1. Not just here, his entire map. Everyone is putting too much faith in the trough to produce widespread significant snows.

        1. “Widespread significant?” I don’t believe that to be the case. I don’t 3-6 inches is a blockbuster and that certainly will occur region wide east of 495. However, it is CC and outer Cape Ann that is believed to get significant snow and I believe that to be true. West of 495 will be fortunate if they saw a few inches.

  12. When is the snow supposed to wrap up around the Worcester area? It seems to me as though it will be 11am, but I’m not sure

    1. A couple bursts, one soon, and another later tonight probably after 10. Not sure you get much more than 2 inches there.

  13. It is entirely possible that Matt’s snowfall map is close to right on the button. This is what I was referring to yesterday when I used the term “high bust potential”. 🙂

    1. What is the likelihood of your forecasting being a bust in your opinion? Do the radar trends concern you?

      1. They don’t concern me. And if I thought my forecast was likely to bust, I wouldn’t have that as my forecast. 🙂 … Playing on the conservative side I feel that the lower end of my amounts get reached. I put the upper end there because of the potential combined with the uncertainty of this type of setup.

  17. Snowing in JP finally. 😀 Saw a few flakes about 1/2 hour ago, but it is truly snowing now, albeit very lightly.

  19. Started snowing lightly here about 1.5 hours ago but is now steadier. No accumulation. SIL filled his ice rink yesterday that ranges 6 – 3 inches in depth. It’s fairly frozen although he won’t walk on it until he is sure it won’t split

  22. In think cape Anne into SNH will be the focus and down towards cape. Boston misses out on the big totals

  26. Take a look on radar what is happening over our coastal waters just east of Boston. It appears a band is actually moving toward the northwest as the main shield of precipitation from the storm to our south is moving north east. Do we have a trough trying to get its act together??? TK. Any thoughts?

    http://www1.whdh.com/weather/radar

    1. Not sure about that. Could just be the way the radar is picking up on the
      echos. Something to watch for sure.

      1. I don’t think it’s the inverted trough. Likely just ocean enhancement. Note the energy developing to the southwest of NYC. Hmmmm.

        1. I noticed that. Not sure what to make of that???

          We’ll watch on radar and see.

          Also, notice that radar echo intensity is slowly increasing.
          On the Nexard I see the greens mixing with yellow. 😀
          Will there be a changeover to yellow???? 😀

          1. I’d like that. Seems as if the main action doesn’t occur until after midnight. There may even be a brief pause in the precip until phase two (the main event) gets its act together.

  32. Anyone have that pressure falls map. That should really be interesting to see right about now. 😀

  35. Just a point here. Low water content fluffy snow does NOT have as strong a radar
    signal as does wet snow. 😀 We may not see a lot of really strong echos, yet it will
    still pile up. 😀

    2. Very likely. That storm was never going to make a close pass at us. Hence, it’s important the inverted trough set up occurs or BUST!

      1. Yes, you are correct. Just took another look at that.
        Yup, we need that Norlun trough to set up later, else not
        much will happen. 😀

  38. Ground is covered now. It is going to be a fun trip to the grocery store when my hubby gets home from bowling. 🙂 Since this snow came as absolutely no surprise to me you would think I could plan better. Ugh!

  39. wide spread 4-8 inches across eastern mass out to 495 north into coastal nh and all of rd down across the arm of the cape and marthas vinyard. heiviest amounts towards the coasts.
    2-4 eastern ct up through central mass east east of fitchburgh up to nashua up into coastal northern maine.inches in central mass
    0-2 else where
    cape ann,outer cape, nantucket up through coastal nh up into southerneastern coastal maine will see 4-8 inches but where the norlon trough forms if at all 8 to as much as 16 inches could fall.

  41. I think this is all bonus snow and judging by how steadily it’s falling and how far it extends back, I’m encouraged to see a couple inches from it.

    I’m really looking forward to the radar tomorrow morning. Just hope SE Mass sticks out enough to get back into the western edge of a southeastern pinwheeling vortex moving back out to sea. We’ll see.

      1. I am. I never thought the front end of this event would be this productive. I’m surprised its snowing as steadily as it is.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next few hours, the radar presentation becomes very poor, ie ….. Less coverage, maybe even less intensity. And then suddenly, I think we will see westward and northwestern moving echoes on the north shore and southeast NH that will then rotate southeastward tomorrow morning. Again, I just hope the Marshfield and the Boston area can get on the western edge of that snow tomorrow morning. I think we will for a couple more inches. I hope. 🙂

  43. That band of snow filling in over southwestern rhode island and into southern CT is becoming more impressive. Perhaps there won’t be much of a lull in eastern MA afterall. More energy continues to build from the southwest. The main event isn’t forecasted to occur until after midnight. This really is ‘bonus’ snow.

  44. Listening to the police scanner and there are already two accidents in Plymouth and one in Kingston. Police are calling for sanders to get out on the roads.

  46. 18z WRF is heartbreaking, moved the heavy snow band further north, leaving most areas under 3″.
    Oh how frustrating.

    1. Scott, I wouldn’t go by the 18z. It’s now casting time. And unfortunately, most of the activity occurs while we are sleeping. There may be a break in the action before round two begins after midnight. Even without the trough, the area east of I-495 sees 3-6 inches.

  47. It finally started snowing here in Lynn about 10 minutes after I said that it wasn’t. Steady, light snow with temp holding at 27 F. Roads are decent. Got one last trip in to the home improvement center before the weather deteriorates.

  48. Regarding your observation of the radar earlier, a-arod, precipitation originating at a lower level would be moving northwestward in what is a very light southeasterly flow ahead of the newly developing low. The northeastward-moving echoes are originating higher up in the atmosphere from the initial storm.

    1. Thank you TK. Doesn’t it appear the first round of precip is moving off the coast and that there will be a break in the action? Other than some additional energy developing to our southwest, I’m not seeing much on radar to indicate 4-8 inches of snow. What am I missing?

      1. This first round of precip is from the old low.

        We haven’t seen the precip from the redevelopment, nor have we seen anything from the trough. That’s overnight and tomorrow morning.

  49. I do not think this will turnout like it was suppose too, I’ve got about a half inch of snow and the back edge is already in Worcester cty and eastern ct, I would be suprised if we got over an inch 🙂

  50. Cape Cod has light southeasterly winds. Block Island, RI has a light northerly wind. These winds could just be hap and circumstance or it could be early signs of that convergence zone.

    My dream scenario for Marshfield is for the outer Cape to have some type of easterly surface wind and have Marshfield be about where the surface wind is from the northwest. In 11 years down here, I have seen this a few times down here in snow events where P-Town has a northeast wind, Marshfield has a NW wind and there’s been heavy bands of snow right along the coastline.

    1. My take is the same but still high stakes with the trough set-up. This first area is doing what I expected it to.

      1. Thanks TK….I am hearing it is very slippery out down here in Plymouth. They just had 3 accidents within a mile of each other on the same road.

        1. Probably just a touch mild on the road surface and with the very cold temperatures you got a quick melt/refreeze in the early stages. That’s accident set-up right there.

          1. That’s exactly the conditions that resulted in my wife and I being involved in a scary accident in North Conway about 13 years ago. Ever since, driving in snow is a fearful proposition for my wife and me.

  53. That second feature to our southwest surely is beginning to energize precip over the area. It is becoming more impressive. Could be the beginning.

  56. TK, where the appearance of this snow looks stratiform (widespread coverage), should we expect the echoes associated with the eventual development of the norlun trough to be more here and there and almost looking more convective ?

    1. They will have a slightly more convective look (not like bright t-storm colors) but you’ll see darker shades and they will try to organize into a couple of bands, either offshore or both offshore and for some distance inland.

  57. Matt Noyes says that the models are trending for more precip north of the city. Just what he thought. Thoughts anyone? I like Matt but I hope this is a huge bust for him.

  61. This is not like tracking a low and its area of precip from a far distance away, like might be happening later Friday of this week. It’s not something one can identify where it is now and then try to translate its future path.

    It’s an atmospheric phenomenon that will develop fairly quickly and hopefully to our advantage. My opinion is don’t get discouraged by the radar, especially as it might look worse (if you want snow) in the next few hours.

  63. Steady snow continues, approaching 1 inch. This front end part of the storm is doing well SE of Boston (in my opinion.)

    1. It could and may well be Hadi…..

      But, I’m as intrigued by those echoes off of the Maine coastline. My hypothesis would be to watch those echoes and say around 10 to 11pm, see if they start moving westward or even west-southwestward.

  67. I am much more excited for Friday night storm as it can encompass a much larger area. And I go sledding with my little guy :)!

  68. I came across a couple pending messages as far back as yesterday that I have approved. Fell a bit behind on site admin. My apologies!

  70. It’s about to stop snowing across eastern mass according to radar, got about 3 quarters of an inch, back roads r covered, main roads r fine,

    1. And that was the bonus snow from the old low.

      Remember most timelines had most of the snow after midnight. Still the case.

      What’s kind of amusing is that yesterday’s NAM runs radar simulation had this batch, right about the timing it was, so the model did forecast the fact there would be precipitation, about the time it was, and the area it was falling.

  71. Look at this comment from Matt Noyes… 50:1 ratios?? WOW

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Incredible! @NWSNewYorkNY just melted down 1.5″ of snow to .03″ of liquid – an incredibly fluffy 50:1 ratio

    1. I’ve seen a ratio here like that only once since I started taking official obs for the state climatologist in 1987 and even going back to my days as an unofficial observer (January 1 1978).

  72. Why does system in MD and NJ look as if it will scoot off coast just east of us or will it head due north or even track back……..or is that where the trough comes into play. So many questions.

        1. I know I sound confident but of course I’m on edge a bit. My entire # setup is banking on that trough and some of the redevelopment of the low itself. This is not one of my more conservative forecasts. 😉

          1. So is the snow after midnight the trough that will effect the coast? Curious what we Woburn-ites are up for?

          2. TK. From all I have read, the trough is unpredictable at best and able to even be suspected by a very knowledgable met. You have nothing to be edgy about. You cannot predict the unpredictable.

  73. The stuff off the Maine coast appears to be associated with the old primary low, or moisture in the mid to upper levels that ran well out ahead of it.

  74. Got close to an inch with this batch and that is what I expected. It may fill in later but this has from the beginning was an eastern New England event.

    1. Charlie does if make you nervous that you and I are seeing the same things? Scares the heck out of me :D. Just kidding. But I’m more confident in the wisdom of our host than in what I see !

      1. Haha I’m with tk that it will develop but just a tad east Boston north may get some additional snow and there will be some widespread snowshowers around but I just don’t see it, I’ve been wrong before and actually hope I am wrong,, but think Sat could be a top 3 snow event of the winter,

  79. I’ve heard stories about how great the RPM model is. Maybe sometimes, but how can you trust a model that yesterday predicts 14.3 for Boston and then shifts so drastically. And it’s not the first time I’ve seen this model do this.

    2. North attleboro to wrentham to foxboro all have about the same from what I can tell, between a half inch to 1 inch of snow has fallen, my house has 3 quarters of an inch so far

  83. Matt Noyes seems to be waivering a bit on his totals?? Also said that the HRRR has made another dramatic shift no details yet….

    1. Waiting to see if we get development bc it should start happening if its gonna, or else what u got is what your gonna get

  85. I’m happy !!M Ground is nicely covered. Its not going anywhere for a handful of days. Looks nice and I am optimistic there’ll be more overnight and tomorrow morning, at least where I am, for once. 🙂 Yes, I’m going to boast because somehow, someway, part of that Friday storm will rain where I am, as the ocean will still be 43F.

    A light snow continues to fall.

      1. Geez Charlie…give it a rest….you remind me Lucy when she pulls the football out from Charlie Brown just as he’s about to kick it…

  90. I do not see anything on radar or the short range models that would indicate more snow is coming anytime soon

      1. Tk. call for boston. What time can we expect it here to pickup. bare grounds in longwood area. Still six.

        1. I love reading your posts, John. Mostly because your use of punctuation makes everything sound like a very dry statement. I love it!

            1. 😀

              You use a lot of “.”‘s and not a lot of “?”‘s which affects the tone and inflection of your posts. Not at all a bad thing – just making an observation!

              I hope you make some good money this week!

        2. Keeping them in a 4-8 band for now. It means they may only get 4. It also means they could get 8. There’s even a chance they get 6, or 7. Of course, if I’m wrong, they can get less than 4, or more than 8.

          😉

          Seriously, I’m going to guess 4.3

          1. Hahahahahaha. You are starting to sound like me. I’m not sure of that’s good or bad but I’m doubled over laughing

      2. Wife works in Plymouth. The last several comments suggested that the snow was about finished. Do I have that right or has something changed? On phone so no computer access.

        1. The snow from the first batch, which wasn’t initially even expected to make it here, is finished.

  92. I have always been more excited for Friday nights storm as its a more classic set up. Anything for JP today is a bonus.

  95. Hi- lonwood medical area of boston not much at all. bare ground. put some salt down. are we still on for about six inches after midnight. my wife said about an inch in pembroke.

  97. Matt Noyes just tweeted this

    @MattNoyesNECN: A few changes going to air momentarily on @NECN at 9pm, 10 and midnight – will post here ASAP – on-air in moments

  99. Still snowing lightly in Quincy but on radar it doesn’t indicate anything…Also most of the moisture moving east not north..Does anyone think this will change?

      2. he issaying that the norlun trought is going to be furthern north and out to sea. coastal southeast maine with 4-8 inch amounts

  102. Something brewing on south coast as a line of heavy snow is,, now does it move north or does it go out over fish and clobber maine

  103. Been doing a little dxng (my radio hobby) tonight on the MW band and I noticed the appearance of some static crashes. So I took a look at the Vaisala lightning map and lo and behold there are some T-Storms (not many) firing up off Jersey coast.

    1. Not as glamorous as ham radio but I remember driving home late one night from a work shift at the weather place and hearing distinctive lightning zaps on the AM radio between distant stations. It was a very cold winter night up here, and a winter storm was brewing near the Gulf Coast, where the only thunderstorms were. What a distance for that static to travel.

      1. T-Storm static crashes can really get out on MW (the AM band) and the LW band. If the signals are crossing just salt water they can propagate close to 2000 miles. Less if they are crossing over land.

        1. Perhaps that night I was hearing something far out over the Atlantic. Either way, it was fascinating, knowing I was hearing lightning static and there were many hundreds of miles between me and the nearest storms.

          1. When the static crashes are too bad (spring into early summer..and then again early fall with tropical systems) it can make AM dxng pretty difficult. A night like tonight with very few crashes can be a lot of fun. Conditions are up to the south tonight and Cuban MW is in pretty well. Last year there was a night when Brazil was coming in nicely on AM.

  104. He said band north of Boston stays over the ocean and added an inch to SE mass to bring totals closer to 5 inches.

  106. Storm over in Coventry, CT….total accumulation 5/8″. Beat my prediction of a half inch this afternoon! Again, this is a non-event for most in SNE with exception of the south coast and SE MA. Can’t argue with Charlie on this one.

    On to the next!

  107. im thinking 1-3 inches west of i95 with less than 1 in north central and western mass.
    3-6 east of i95
    with some areas on the north shore and outer cape seeing 6-10 inches

    1. Not convinced that the North Shore will see 6-10 inches. Time will tell, but just not buying that solution.

      1. hint the reason why i said all areas east of i95 3-6 inches. 6-10 will be extremely isolated if it comes close enough to the coast

  108. I think what u got is what your gonna get, it will all melt to set up for Sat’s storm unless this trends warmer and give rain to the 95 corridor

    1. I was thinking maybe a track through the Great Lakes Saturday, partly sunny and hazy with a few spring showers splashing among the emerging flowers in the soft dirt. 😉

  109. Hi all, I am very confused, I live in reading and we got about i would say a half an inch of snow, TK or anyone, would someone please explain to me how we are also going to get additional snow, as a lot of you stated and noticed myself, the radar has most of the precipitation moving from west to east and the back end of the precip already exited (almost) eastern mass. Are we like going to get snow like back from the east to west when the norlon trough develops or something? The radar is basically showing nothing more coming in the next couple hours, even for cap ann. Would someone please clear that out for me. Sorry for the bad grammar english is not my first language :p

    2. No need to apologize for the grammar. You do very well. 🙂

      I’ve said from the beginning, my (and many others) entire forecast depends on the development and placement of that trough. I never expected much from this first batch. This forecast has always had a very high bust potential. What falls in the Boston area and northward now depends on that trough. If it fails, or is further northeast, southeast, or offshore, then the amounts I posted will not verify. I knew the risk of being aggressive on this one. In my opinion it was worth taking.

      In now-casting mode now. Just waiting to see how things develop as the night goes on.

      1. I laugh every time I hear it. I rag on Pete Bouchard by tweeting this to him when the forecast goes astray. The guy is a riot.

  112. 0z NAM pretty much indicates that what you’ve got now is what you are going to get in many areas. Little if anymore precip overnight, except in SE MA and along the south coast. The trough looks to set up well north of the area and out to sea. I would expect the NWS will be dropping a lot of the winter storm warnings and advisories shortly.

    On a promising note, the NAM does look good at hour 84 with the developing system for Fri/Sat, for what it’s worth!

  114. PB on channel 7 just threw in the towel. This was a tough one to forecast from the beginning. On to Friday where again south coast will see the most.

  115. What were they saying on FB? Just a quick observation radar had no precip over quincy and it started to lighten up but then it just picked up again and see echoes appearing. Could this be the beginning of the norlun trough.

    1. Oh we were just chatting weather in general, not so much specifics on this one.

      Yes those echoes are Norlun seeds.

      1. Well if it sets up offshore then yes.

        Not that it MATTERS, but I’m glad I put a big FAT BRIGHT ORANGE STICKER that said “high bust potential” on this from the beginning!

  116. Charlie for once I want to hear you say you do not like snow 🙂 it’s ok noone will care if you admit it 🙂

    No way rain for Friday storm.

    1. No, no. Charlie really does like snow. He just likes to push buttons too.

      In fact, Charlie is the guy that is on the elevator of a 15 story building just before you get in, only to find every button pushed, then promptly get out and take the stairs. 😉

  117. I was intrigued by the post earlier about the NWS NY melting down the snow and coming up with a 50:1 ratio. So I just melted the snow we got down here and 5/8″ melted down to .05″ liquid. That’s good for a 12.5 to 1 ratio. Temp is 21 degrees here and it’s 30 in NY. Either someone made a bad calculation error or the twitter report was false. 50:1 is the type of ratio you see in the Canadian Rockies, not NYC.

  118. Interesting write up from the nws as of 10 pm updated
    BROAD SCALE SNOWFALL HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED TO A MORE NARROW AND
    HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW FOCUSED ALONG A BAND OF MODERATE LOW-MID LVL
    FGEN FROM SRN LI TO CAPE COD. THIS MAY MEAN A BREAK FOR MUCH OF
    THE AREA FOR THIS POINT. THE FOCUS NOW IS ON THE ENERGY TRANSFER
    FROM THIS BAND OF FGEN TO THE CONVERGENT NORLUN TROF WHICH IS
    BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFFSHORE PER LATEST PRESSURE
    FALLS. AS THIS TRANSFER OCCURS…SUSPECT THE BAND TO THE S WILL
    GRADUALLY LIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE N WITH TIME WEAKENING AND FALLING
    MOSTLY WITHIN THE I-495 CORRIDOR. THE BAND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
    SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3+ INCHES OF SNOW…SO STILL COULD BE A
    GOOD BIT OF SNOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. REGIONAL IR
    SATELLITE ALREADY ALSO SHOWING THE BEGINNING SIGNS OF THIS
    TRANSFER AS CLOUD TOPS ARE CURRENTLY COOLING N OF THE AREA OF
    HEAVIEST BANDING.
    hopefully this meanes all of the precip moves north!

      1. Yep, looks more disorganized and further south than the last run. Still 4 more days and 16 model runs to go – plenty of time to change!

            1. LOL, you’re right. Looks like a carbon copy of this storm, except with a bit more moisture to work with. RI and SE MA taking the brunt with 4-7″ and 2-4″ across the rest of the region. Not a good run!

  124. For the sake of ease, I posted a new blog with updated info for overnight and tomorrow. The rest is the same as before.

    🙂

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